November 16, 2018 5:33pm

The tug-of-war of volatility with strong moves to the upside and weakness to the down

Interesting volume stat: 7 out of 28 of the upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume and 3 out of the 14 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average).

 

Who is defining the metrics for investors?

Some have stated, “I am the “weatherman” of the sector; forecasting and presenting conditions of the sector in a given period.”

“Wherefore art thou” … is occasionally used in retellings of Romeo and Juliet but, in our sector; traders are the buyers for downtrodden equities. Deny thy pricing and refuse thy orders; or if thou wilt not, be but sworn my sentiment and I’ll no longer be a depreciated sector share holder.

 

Daily analytics and metrics:

  • The Dow closed up +123.95 points or +0.49% to 25,413.22
  • The S&P closed up +6.07 points or +0.22% to 2,736.27
  • The NASDAQ closed down -11.16 points or -0.15% to 7,247.87

 

From the pre-open newsletter, “enduring a bumpy market path; there is confusion as the focus is short-term with some or none near or long-term expectation. Risk is not always diminished as time rolls forward. There is just too much fluctuation and investors get tired and more skeptical of risk adjusted prognoses.”

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:   

  • The open was positive with an A/DL of 37/8 and 0 flat;
  • The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 24/17 and 4 flats;
  • The close was positive with an A/DL of 28/14 and 3 flats;

 

Pre-open indications:

  • I had stated, “I have an upside hang-over, the positive aspect felt great but … after October and November        so far – I’m distrusting everything!”

 

Five (5) key metrics: 

… Greatest volume to the downside:  XON, GBT, CLLS, AST and CUR

… Upside volume was weighted to:  MDXG, SGMO, VSTM, HSGX and IONS

… Weakness ($) to the downside:  AXGN (-$1.03), CLLS (-$0.51), GBT (-$0.34), BLCM (-$0.20) and OSIOR (-$0.18)

… Best moves ($) to the upside:  ALNY (+$3.79), SLDB (+$2.82), BLUE (+$2.56), SAGE (+$2.33) and RGNX (+$2.32)

… The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

  • Friday was up +0.86% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.14% UPSIDE  in the pre-market;
  • Thursday was up +2.19% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
  • Wednesday was down -2.03% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
  • Tuesday was down -0.4% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.06% in the pre-market;
  • Monday was down -3% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.06% in the pre-market;
  • Last Friday was down -2.21% after indicating a POSITIVE +0.08% in the pre-market;

 

Henry’omics:

The sector kept its pants on to close positive after a dive at 11:30 a.m. (A/DL of 15/28 and 2 flats) and an afternoon come-back.

As I had also stated, “after a precipitous drops in value since the previous Thursday … a stage was set for an UPSIDE bounce” and “the biggest threat to the current … share pricing … is that sentiment is dependent on trading as many institutional funds are not increasing their “participation” in these lowered prices.”

The danger of repeating October’s results < looks real enough, in 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive closes. So far in November, In 11 session– there were 5 positive closes, 1 neutral and 6 negative closes.

 

Crispers bounced back up after Wednesday’s hard close after Tuesday’s ups:

  • CRSP closed up +$0.77 to end the week;  after Thursday’s +$1.63, Wednesday’s -$1.72, Tuesday’s +$0.31;
  • EDIT closed up +$0.88 after Thursday’s +$1.18, Wednesday’s -$2.08 and Tuesday’s +$0.79;
  • NTLA closed up +$0.53 after Thursday’s +$0.31; Wednesday’s -$1.25 and Tuesday’s +$0.96;

I kept telling many, they had become trading vehicles and they have been!

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down to end the week -$0.04 to $6.86 after Thursday’s +$0.07, Wednesday’s -$0.32 to $6.83, Tuesday’s +$0.10, Monday’s +$0.35 or +5.22% to $7.05 and last Friday’s $6.70;

 

Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators:

  • Review the range of the 28 upside from +0.18% (STML) to +9.09% (SLDB) while the 14 downside ranged from -0.30% (ADRO) to -5% (KOOL -$0.02) with 3 flat closes (BSTG, PSTI and RENE.L).

Volume stat:

  • 7 out of 28 of the upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
  • 3 out of the 14 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average).

 

November sessions:

Friday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 28 advancers and 3 flat;

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 33 advancers and 0 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 7 advancers and 2 flats;

Tuesday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers and 3 flats;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 40 decliners, 4 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 39 decliners, 6 advancers and 0 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 19 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 32 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 21 advancers and 2 flats;

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 7 advancers and 3 flats;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 22 advancers and 3 flats;

Thursday (11/1) closed POSITIVE with 3 decliners, 42 advancers and 0 flat;

  • In 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive closes
  • In 19 sessions in September – there were 10 negative closes and 9 positive close;
  • In 21 August sessions – 6 had negative and 15 had positive closes

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.