RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: anxiety is piling on!

January 3, 2019 6:47pm

Trading on Friday could get more volatile as the December jobs report is set for release tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET, while Fed chief Powell is set to take part in a panel discussion at 10:15 a.m.

Pre-open indications: 8 hits and 0 MISS

Out and about: Bristol-Meyers-Squibb (BMY -$6.90 or -13.26% to $45.12) bought the COW – Celgene (CELG +$13.79 or +20.69% to $80.43); the combined company will be the dominant player in the cardiovascular space, with BMS’s blood thinner Eliquis <partnered with Pfizer (PFE)> and it will be in the top five in immunology and inflammation. The merger generates huge short term value to CELG which would have taken years to achieve; however, can BMS reap the reward and over how many years?

We might have turned the calendar but, we hop-scotched the trend in the sector

How many times, can I be right! Consider these end-of-day results as Friday’s primer. 

The 6 W’s: Who, what, where, when, why and what of it …

Daily analytics:

• The Dow closed down -660.23 points or -2.83% to 22,686.22
• The S&P closed down -62.14 points or -2.48% to 2,447.89
• The NASDAQ was down -202.43 points or -3.04% to 6,463.50

Henry’omics:

Sector equities posted slight gains on Thursday after another volatile session as traders’ kicked the sector’s previous upside to the gutter!

Thursday's decline in equities was accelerated by a weaker-than-expected reading on the U.S. manufacturing sector. ISM's manufacturing index fell to 54.1 in December; economists polled by Refinitiv expected 57.9.

Volume still remains LOW as compared to the 3 month averages!

Reiterating, “Technically, I see signs of a bottom forming and recommend investors “dip-their beaks” in … some equities … but, not all as Q4 results LOOM in the short-term future!”

Leading gains were:  OSIR, ALNY, BLUE, MDXG and ADRO and the downsiders – RGNX, RARE (was down Wednesday), CRSP (was up Wednesday), EDIT and VCEL with NO surprisingly CLBS dived.

AGTC was UP +$0.16 to $2.65 and was down -$0.03 on Thursday – there is $5.81 in cash per share as I have continually pointed out!

BSTG ($0.00 to $2.15) is going BROKE as a NEW financing is being SOUGHT by maybe a convertible debt offering or even a bridge to what (?) - BEWARE! What and which U.S. investor would step-up, NO IND. Still a failed developmental company with management that has NEV ER DELIVERED on its promises wasting up to $55 M over the past four years!

ATHX was down -$0.02 after Wednesday’s +$0.04 to $1.48 with moderate (365.3 K shares traded) volume – 3 month average = 610.036 K shares; on 1/3/18 ATHX was priced at $1.82 and management expects investors to step-up re an option (is a possibility) from Helios??

The CHRISPERs were CREAMED: CRSP (-$1.85 after Wednesday’s+$1.30 after Monday’s $1.82), EDIT (-$1.38 after Wednesday’s +$0.59 after Monday’s $2.03) and NTLA (-$0.57 after Wednesday’s +$0.05 after Monday’s 0.68) – be prepared for a share pricing SLIDE and we were.

Pre-open indications: 8 hits and 0 MISS

• Biostage (BSTG) closed flat at $2.15 – hit;
• Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) closed down -$0.0 – hit;
• CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$1.85 – hit;
• Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$1.38 – hit;
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.57 – hit;
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) closed down -$0.74 – hit;
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.12 – hit;
• Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed down -$0.47 – hit;

Out and about:

Celgene brings some innovation to BMS’s pipeline, most notably with two CAR-T engineered cell treatments for cancer in the near-term pipeline. There’s the CAR-T for multiple myeloma, bb2121, which CELG has been developing in collaboration with Bluebird Bio (BLUE) and JCAR017 for relapsed diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL)—a product it picked up in its $9 billion buyout of Juno Therapeutics last January.

From the pre-open newsletter: “what goes around comes back … to go around or down again! Risk, uncertainty, fundamental anxieties and aftermarket issues could “spin” technicals to its knees.”

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:   

• The open was negative with an A/DL of 16/25 and 4 flats;
• The mid-day was negative with an A/DL of 15/27 and 3 flats;
• The close was negative with an A/DL of 11/32 and 2 flats;

Daily sector metrics:

… Greatest volume to the downside:  CLBS, BLFS, VCEL, BTX and SGMO

… Upside volume was weighted to:  HSGX, MDXG, PSTI, OSIR and MESO

… Weakness ($) to the downside:  RGNX (-$2.51), RARE (-$1.85), CRSP (-$1.85), EDIT (-$1.38) and VCEL (-$1.37)

… Moves ($) to the upside:  OSIR (+$0.74), ALNY (+$0.45), BLUE (+$0.38), MDXG (+$0.125) and ADRO (+$0.21)

… The week’s history lesson, the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) closed:

• Thursday was up +0.14% after indicating a POSITIVE +1.1% upside in the pre-market;
• Wednesday was up +0.15% after indicating a NEGATIVE -1.7% downside in the pre-market;
• Tuesday was a holiday;
• Monday was not reported;
• Friday was down -0.34% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
• Thursday was up +0.03% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;

Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators:  

• Review the range of the 11 upside from +0.37% (KOOL) to +50.08% (HSGX +$0.06 to $0.18) while the 32 downside ranged from -0.13% (SAGE) to -14.77% (CLBS) with 2 flat closes (BSTG and RENE.L).

Volume stat:  

• 4 out of the 11 upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
• 12 out of the 32 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average)

January sessions:

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 11 advancers and 2 flats;

Wednesday (1/3/19) closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 34 advancers and 0 flats;

Q4 tracking:

• In 21 sessions in December – there were 8 positive close; 1 neutral, 2 market closes and 10 negative close;
• In 22 sessions in November – there were 1 holiday, 10 positive closes, 1 neutral and 10 negative closes;
• In 23 sessions in October – there were 17 negative closes and 6 positive closes

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.