Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: slipping and sliding

February 19, 2019 6:43pm

As the sector composite closed negative with an Advance/Decline Line (A/DL) of 18/24 and 3 flats;

Quarterly and FY18 results (2 misses and 1 surpass in expectation)

Pre-open indications: 5 HITs and 1 MISS

It’s not hard to be right so often; that’s why the term “quantamental,” a blend of the two styles, may soon become common parlance among investors and traders.

There are a variety of end uses to sector forecasts; the most prominent, they are used to protect your portfolio’s life and value.

Markets and indexes:

The Dow closed up +8.07 points or +0.03% to 25,891.32
The S&P closed up +4.16 points or +0.15% to 2,779.75
The NASDAQ was up +14.36 points or +0.19% to 7,486.77

Henry’omics:

Sector equities took a hit to the mid-section as quarterly results resumed and the elements of LPS (loss-per-share) results played-out.

Risk is exhibited by the drop in share pricing as quarterly and FY18 results caused a deflation in pricing.

The major indexes fell earlier in the day as investors took a breather following solid gains last week. The major indexes all rose at least 0.6% on Friday, while the Dow also gained more than 400 points. Those moves helped the Dow and NASDAQ notch their eighth straight weekly gain, while the S&P 500 rose for the seventh week in eight.

Pre-open post, “a short week that’s back on the roller-coaster; Q4 and FY18 earnings or LPS (loss-per-share) results resume.”

I also stated, “I keep calling-out the issue of the sector’s “short-termism” as we re-enter the “earnings” season road race and the hills are next!”

Pre-open indications: 5 HITs and 1 MISS

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$1.42 – hit;
Mesoblast (MESO) closed down -$0.05 – miss;
CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.89 - hit;
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up +$0.14 - hit;
Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) closed down - $0.29 - hit;
Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up +$0.22 – hit;

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

The open was positive with the A/DL to 31/12 and 2 flats;
First half-hour was negative with an A/DL of 20/23 and 2 flats
The mid-day slipped further negative with an A/DL of 16/27 and 2 flats;
The close was negative with an A/DL of 18/24 and 3 flats;

Bouncing to the upside:

BLFS (+$1.25), QURE (+$0.95), CRSP (+$0.89), CLLS (+$0.47) and BOLD (+$0.29)

Leading the pack and peers to the downside were:

SAGE (-$7.98 after reporting Q4 and FY18 following Friday’s +$2.84, Thursday’s +$0.46 and Wednesday’s +3.74), ALNY (-$3.15), BMRN (-$2.14), ONCE (-$1.68) and BLUE (-$1.42 after Friday’s +$2.74 and Thursday’s -$1.33)

Closing FLAT … VSTM, RENE.L and ONVO

Tonight’s percentage (%) indicators:

Range of the 18 upside was +0.24% (CLBS) to +9.46% (CUR) while the 24 downside ranged from -0.07% (HSGX) to -7.98% (SAGE) with 3 flat close (ONVO, RENE.L and VSTM).

Volume stat:

6 out of the 18 upside had higher (than the 3 month average) volume
6 out of the 24 downside experienced greater volume (than the 3 month average)

Daily volume metrics:

… Greatest volume (descending) to the downside:

HSGX, SGMO, XON, ONCE and BMRN

… Upside volume was weighted to:

MDXG, BTX, SLDB, EDIT and CUR

Quarterly results perspective:

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) on reported a Q4 loss of $87.8 M and a per share loss of $1.73. The results surpassed “street” expectations. The average estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of $1.74 per share. RARE posted revenue of $16.3 million in the period, also surpassing the “forecast” of $13.3 M. Ultragenyx shares have climbed 31% since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Tuesday, shares hit $56.81, a climb of 21% in the last 12 months.

Misses:

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) reported Q4 results of a net Loss of $158.4 M with a per share loss of -$3.38 (a miss of $0.41) and a cash position of $922.8M with revenues of $0.3M. SAGE anticipates that its existing cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, and estimated product sales of ZULRESSO, will enable the company to fund its operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements into 2H 2020.

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) reported FY18 results (no Q4 breakdown) of a net loss of $78.8 M or -$2.11 per share 37.7 M shares outstanding with $64.7 M in revenue and $601.3 M in cash

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicator:

Tuesday was down -0.57% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
Monday was a market holiday;
Friday was up +1.65% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
Thursday was up +0.43% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
Wednesday was up +0.30% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;
Last Tuesday was up +1% after NOT indicating in the pre-market;

February sessions:

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 18 advancers and 3 flats;

Monday was a market holiday;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 6 decliners, 38 advancers and 1 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 16 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 19 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 33 advancers and 1 flat;

Monday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 30 advancers and 1 flat;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 25 advancers and 2 flat;

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 37 decliners, 7 advancers and 1 flat;

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 20 advancers and 1 flat;

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 15 advancers and 4 flat;

Monday closed POSITIVE with 16 decliners, 27 advancers and 2 flat;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 29 advancers and 2 flat;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.