May 30, 2019 11:09pm

What is “fair value” in these times?

The question begets an answer; it’s not about buying into risks; the peril of share pricing is just about trepidation

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 0 MISS

The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical for the RegMed sector which will establish whether market reaction to headline news is temporary and short-lived, or if this current upside will continue to a more fundamental correction.  

 

A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

 

Markets and indexes:

  • The Dow closed up +43.47 points or +0.17% to 25,169.88
  • The S&P closed up +5.84 points or +0.21% at 2,788.86
  • The NASDAQ was up +20.41 points or +0.27% to 7,567.72

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Henry’omics:

Sector equities dumped as markets rose on Thursday, with more losses from the previous session, but the market’s gains were kept in check as worries over the global economy and trade lingered.

Stock benchmarks briefly turned negative in afternoon trading, around the same time the 10-year Treasury yield gave back its earlier gains. The yield fell to 2.227%, near 20-month lows. The 10-year yield entered May trading above 2.5% <CNBC>.

Keep your eyes on the S&P 500 which is down more than 5% this month and remains below 2,800 — a key level watched by traders — for the first time since late March.

It’s NOT sentiment, fundamentals or even charts – it is just about ignoring the state of the sector – because investors JUST don’t know what to do!

 

Pre-open post: “the sector suffers in silence. “Our” universes (45 covered companies) are certainly not dead but, certainly have bled and the wounded share pricings are pilled-up at the sentiment refill station gives out Band-Aids?”

 

Pre-open indications: 4 HIT and 0 MISS

  • BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN) closed up +$0.43 – hit;
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.27 – hit;
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$0.03 – hit;
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L) closed down -$5.00 – hit;

 

Thursday’s advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:  

  • The open was negative with the A/DL at 15/26, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);
  • The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 23/18 and 2 flats and 2 acquired;
  • The close was negative with an A/DL of 16/23 and 4 flats and 2 acquired;

 

Upside volume stats:  review the numbers, there is a message …

  • Thursday: 6 out of the 16 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 12 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 6 out of the 16 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday was a holiday

Downside volume stats: here is where the session landing is expressed …

  • Thursday: 3 out of the 23 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 9 out of the 28 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 8 out of the 27 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday was a holiday

 

Cell and gene therapy company’s worst-performers were:

  • Thursday: RENE.L (-$5.00), RGNX (-$2.93), QURE (-$2.92), SAGE (-$2.14) and BLUE (-$1.72);
  • Wednesday: RENE.L (-$15.00), RGNX (-$2.27), BMRN (-$1.55), QURE (-$1.36) and BLUE (-$1.35);
  • Tuesday: BMRN (-$4.57), QURE (-$1.20), SAGE (-$1.03), ALNY (-$0.80) and BLFS (-$0.77);
  • Monday was a market holiday

Sector equities posting gains were:

  • Thursday: MDXG (+1.185), RARE (+$1.13), ALNY (+$1.08), GBT (+$0.90) and ADVM (+$0.58);
  • Wednesday: BLFS (+$0.78), GBT (+$0.22), AXGN (+$0.20), FIXX (+$0.18) and ADRO (+$0.18);
  • Tuesday: RENE.L (+$10.00), RGNX (+$3.28), FATE (+$1.28), GBT (+$1.04) and ONCE (+$0.80);
  • Monday was a market holiday;

 

The week’s percentage (%) indicators: 

  • Thursday’s range of the 16 upside was +0.21% (NTLA) to +103.36% (ONVO +$0.40) while the 23 downside ranged from -0.09% (PSTI) to -10.14% (ADRO);
  • Wednesday’s range of the 12 upside was +0.21% (SGMO) to +5.50% (ADRO) while the 28 downside ranged from -0.12% (SAGE) to -14.74% (ONVO);
  • Tuesday’s range of the 16 upside was +0.07% (RARE) to +7.19% (RGNX) while the 27 downside ranged from -0.09% (ONVO) to -12.71% (BLCM);
  • Monday was a holiday

4 flat – AGTC, BSTG, HSGX and XON with 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and the Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche still being delayed

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicator:

  • Thursday closed up +0.04%;
  • Wednesday closed down -1.12%;
  • Tuesday closed down -1.25%;
  • Last Monday was a holiday

 

May’s sessions:

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 16 advancers, 4 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 12 advancers, 3 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 16 advancers, 0 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday was a market holiday;

Friday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 29 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 7 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 12 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 31 advancers, 4 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 11 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 8 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 29 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 29 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 30 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 39 decliners, 4 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 21 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 20 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 18 decliners, 24 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 6 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 8 decliners, 32 advancers, 3 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 4 decliners, 37 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 17 advancers, 3 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday (5/1) closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 12 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.