RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: it’s over …

June 29, 2019 4:43pm

Friday’s session, last week, June, Q2 and the first half

Volume increased to the upside, though risk has its vicissitudes

Q2 was an example of volatility by headlines and sentiment

I know what a company is supposed to look like, be like, and “smell” like to succeed!

As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am not always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!

Markets and indexes:

• The Dow closed up +73.88 points or +0.28% to 26,599.96
• The S&P closed up +16.84 points or +0.58% at 2,941.76
• The NASDAQ was up +38.49 points or +0.48% to 8,006.24

Henry’omics:

The sector (of my 45 covered companies) rose Thursday and Friday after six (6) session bottoms!

Friday’s advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:  

• The open was positive with an A/DL of 28/12 with 3 flats and 2 acquired;
• The mid-day was positive with an A/DL of 29/12 with 2 flats and 2 acquired;
• The close was positive with an A/DL of 33/9 and 0 flat and 2 acquired;

Stocks are NOT that pricey but, when they burst higher; there is always a downside reaction as many “holders” prepare for LPS (loss-per-share) earnings reporting.

This dynamic has left many … “watcher” (including me!) grappling with some tough questions: What to buy if everything is trading at a relative discount or even a premium to historic averages which also changes a trade as trade headlines, Fed moves and sentiment ignite stomach-churning price swings?

The trading knifes are out, the dead cats can bounce and bad clinical news is usually around the corner.

Caution is the by-word ...

Pre-open post: “just end it on a positive note; the session, the month and the quarter. I am sad to see the first half end on such a volatile note.”

Q2/19 ends:

• In June, there were 9 positive, 1 neutral and 10 negative close;
• In May, there were 14 negative, 1 holiday and 8 positive closes;
• In April, there has been 10 positive and 11 negative closes;

Indexes advanced in heavy trading on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow closing the book on their best June in generations, ahead of much-anticipated trade talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the G20 summit now underway in Japan. All three major U.S. stock indexes gained ground at the close of the week, month, quarter and first half of the year, during which time the U.S. stock market has had a remarkable run <Reuters>.

Leading incliners were

• ReNeuron (RENE.L +$23.50) after Thursday’s -$10.00 – its been taking some serious hits;
• bluebird bio (BLUE +$3.30) spread its wings after being down it needed to rise having started the week at $117.99;
• uniQure (QURE +$2.91) having started the week at $74.61 and the fact that it could be for sale;
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.65) split to the upside, I still believe it is an acquisition target; while
• CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.74 after Thursday’s +$1.44) – after the hammering it has taken value was rusticated.

While the downside stragglers –

• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.37 after Thursday’s -$0.13) an offering subdued its rise with a big hit to take <-$8.33 after Tuesday’s -$0.86);
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.42) has been seen flip-flopping having started to week at 63.84 while
• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.29 at $1.70) has been fading having started the week at $2.11;
• Aduro Biotech (ADRO -$0.210) has been feeling the aftershocks of past consequences – as investors have underwhelmed with response rates to a dose-escalation clinical study;

Volume is increasing – are many covering their short position afraid of being caught in a position!

What more is there to stay – the sector went up with the oversold headed to be overbought by “machine of algorithms” rules!

For the month, the S&P 500 jumped 6.9%, its best June performance since 1955. The broad index is also up more than 17% this year, marking its biggest first-half gain since 1997. The NASDAQ also rallied 7.4% this month.

All eyes are on the G-20 as markets are bracing for a move one way or another!

I believe markets are desperate for evidence of a truce toward resolving the trade issues.

Worst-performers (bottom 5) were:

• Friday: BBT (-$1.37), IONS (-$0.420, BLCM (-$0.29), ADRO (-$0.21) and BSTG (-$0.21);
• Thursday: RENE.L (-$10.00), GBT (-$0.13), ONCE (-$0.13), AXGN (-$0.11) and MDXG (-$0.09);
• Wednesday: GBT (-$8.33), SAGE (-$6.95), RENE.L (-$2.50), ALNY (-$1.65) and RGNX (-$1.56);
• Tuesday: BMRN (-$2.08), BLFS (-$1.16), ONCE (-$1.12), GBT (-$0.86) and RARE (-$0.72);
• Monday: QURE (-$7.58), SAGE (-$5.82), ONCE (-$3.16), RGNX (-$3.06) and BOLD (-$3.02);

Posting gains (top 5) were:

• Friday: RENE.L (+$23.500, BLUE (+$3.30), QURE (+$2.91), SAGE (+$2.65) and CRSP (+$1.74);
• Thursday: SAGE (+$9.19), BLUE (+$4.240, RARE (+$2.29), ALNY (+$1.59) and CRSP (+$1.44);
• Wednesday:  ONCE (+$1.52), VCEL (+$0.78), BLFS (+$0.65), XON (+$0.250 and RARE (+$0.25);
• Tuesday: BLUE (+$1.93), SAGE (+$1.37), EDIT (+$1.04), FATE (+$0.68) and NTLA (+$0.67);
• Monday: MESO (+$0.34), GBT (+$0.29), KOOL (+$0.04), CLBS (+$0.03) and ONVO (+$0.01);

Trading volume spiked versus the week amid the annual restructuring of the Russell indexes, traditionally one of the largest trading days of the year.

Upside volume stats:  to compare

• Friday: 16 out of the 33 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Thursday: 2 out of the 31 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Wednesday: 4 out of the 10 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Tuesday: 3 out of the 20 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Monday: 2 out of the 7 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

• Friday: 7 out of the 9 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Thursday: 5 out of the 11 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
• Wednesday: 6 out of the 32 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume
• Tuesday: 7 out of the 21 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume
• Monday: 8 out of the 35 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume

The week’s percentage (%) indicators: 

• Friday’s range of the 33 upside was +0.20% (ONCE) to +19.41% (ONVO +$0.085) while the 9 downside ranged from -0.65% (IONS) to -14.57% (BLCM);
• Thursday’s range of the 31 upside was +0.31% (PSTI) to +9.68% (SLDB) while the 11 downside ranged from -0.13% (ONCE) to -4.94% (RENE.L);
• Wednesday’s range of the 10 upside was +0.42% (RARE) to +5.34% (PSTI +$0.03) while the 32` downside ranged from -0.14% (CRSP) to -13.34% (GBT);
• Tuesday’s range of the 20 upside was +0.05% (BOLD) to +11.78% (MESO) while the 21` downside ranged from -0.15% (AXGN) to -9.63% (CUR -$0.03);
• Monday’s range of the 7 upside was +0.46% (GBT) to +7.28% (MESO) while the 35 downside ranged from -0.49% (RENE.L) to -11.71% (CUR -$0.04);

0 flat with 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and the Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche still being delayed

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) indicator:

• Friday closed up +1.70%
• Thursday closed up +1.38%
• Wednesday closed down -1%
• Tuesday closed down -0.21%
• Monday closed down -2.13%

June’s sessions:

Friday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 33 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 31 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 10 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 20 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 35 decliners, 7 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 19 decliners, 22 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 14 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 15 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 33 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 11 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 26 advancers, 0 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 7 advancers, 4 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 31 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 37 decliners, 5 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 17 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 25 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Q2/19 so far:

• In May, there were 14 negative, 1 holiday and 8 positive closes;
• In April, there has been 10 positive and 11 negative closes;

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.