Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: the sector dike sprung a leak and equities poured-out

August 20, 2019 7:30pm

Monday, I stated to SELL into strength worried about pricing’s sustainability

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 3 MISS <I’m sticking by my two (2) undervalued>

What’s wrong with be right so often?

“Venimus nos emit et vendidit nos rursus” – “We have bought and sold again". That's why today's not a good day for all who owned cell and gene therapy equities to reassess?

Just like algorithms, rules-are-what-we-make-of-them. The take-away, don’t dwell on what’s happened but, learn the lesson of investing in those who define and meet short-term expectation

Markets and indexes:

The Dow closed down -173.35 points or -0.66% to 25,962.44;
The S&P closed down -23.14 points or -0.79% at 2,900.51;
The NASDAQ was down -54.25 or -0.68% to 7,948.56;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Tuesday the IBB closed % while the XBI also closed %
Monday the IBB closed up +1.13% while the XBI also closed up +1.13%
Friday the IBB closed up +2.23% while the XBI closed up +2.65%

Henry’omics:

The Dow fell, the S&P pulled back and the NASDAQ slid as the major indexes fell to their session lows in the final minutes of the trading session as Treasury yields declined as well.

The Dow has recovered from its 800-point drop from last Wednesday while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have also regained some of their losses from that ignomous day.

When you’re on a roller coaster, the only thing you can be sure of is you’ll end up back where you started,” said Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, noting the market is back where it was a year ago. “We haven’t gone much of anywhere because the economy is moving ahead, but the trade war is setting up these intermittent potholes and the global economy keeps slowing in the background.” <CNBC>.

There’s a struggle between trust and conviction. Trust is something you can rely on, beyond certainty. Conviction doesn't demand that others play by the rules with some principle of reliability. My problem is I don't trust ... ANYTHING until I'm proved right and the facts line up with the evidence!

The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical for the RegMed sector which will establish whether expectation of August and quarter’s (Q2) continue with downdraft post upside swings ...

Pre-open post, “skim if you can trim, and buy if it will fly and sell if compelled! This market and our cell and gene therapy sector are riskier than carrying a loaded weapon with one in the chamber. Start slowly building a solid cash position selling into strength versus weakness.”

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 3 MISS

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$0.66 – hit;
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$0.50 – hit;
Pluristem (PSTI) closed down -$0.26 – hit;
ReNeuron (RENE.L) closed down -$4.00 – hit;
Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up +40.02 – miss;
Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$0.21 – hit;
Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) closed up +$0.018 – hit;
Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down -$0.22 – miss;
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) closed down -$1.22 – miss;

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

Tuesday the close was negative with an A/D Line of 11/32 and 0 flat and 2 acquired;
Monday the close was positive with an A/D Line of 36/6 and x flat and 2 acquired;
Friday the close was positive with an A/D Line of 39/3 and 1 flat and 2 acquired;

Decliners:

ReNeuron RENE.L -$4.00 after Monday’s +$1.50, Friday’s +$4.00, Thursday’s -$10.50, Wednesday’s+$1.50 and last Tuesday’s-$9.00;
Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.44);
Adverum (ADVM -$1.32 after Monday’s -$0.48);
Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.23);
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.22);

Incliners:

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.98);
AxoGen (AXGN +$0.67);
BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.35);
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.33 after Monday’s +$2.35);
Cesca therapeutics (KOOL +$0.175);

The percentage (%) indicators:

Tuesday’s range of the 11 upside was +0.20% (SAGE) to +11.39% (HSGX) while the 32 downside ranged from -0.07% (ALNY to -10.22% (ADVM);
Monday’s range of the 36 upside was +0.10% (GBT) to +13.54% (PSTI) while the 6 downside ranged from -0.09% (QURE) to -7.08% (BTX);
Friday’s range of the 39 upside was +0.43% (BSTG) to +31.22% (SLDB) while the 3 downside ranged from -0.84% (BCLI) to -7.08% (BTX);

Upside volume stats: to compare

Tuesday: 5 out of the 11 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 3 out of the 36 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Friday: 4 out of the 39 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats: NOTICE

Tuesday: 4 out of the 32 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 2 out of the 6 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Friday: 2 out of the 3 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

0 flat with 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) with the Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche still being delayed (SEPTEMBER?)

August’s sessions:

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 32 decliners, 11 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 6 decliners, 36 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 3 decliners, 39 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 28 decliners, 14 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 20 decliners, 22 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 13 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 30 decliners, 11 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 11 decliners, 28 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 21 decliners, 19 advancers, 3 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 10 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 41 decliners, 2 advancers, 0 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 34 decliners, 8 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 22 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.