Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: Low volume and percentage moves do not glamorize the sector for short-term investment

October 24, 2019 6:40pm

Rumor or news: Shares of gene therapy biotech companies launched in high volume in afternoon action Thursday on “rumors” the U.S. Federal Trade Commission cleared Roche's takeover of Spark Therapeutics (ONCE +$7.60).

It's a daunting task to define risk parameters, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules”, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t machine oriented!

The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then it doesn’t seem to be…

The Dow closed DOWN -28.42 points (-0.1%), the S&P closed UP +5.77 points (+0.19%) and the NASDAQ closed UP +66 points (+0.81%)

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Thursday the IBB closed up +0.10% while the XBI closed down -0.29%
Wednesday the IBB closed up +0.34% while the XBI closed down -0.31%
Tuesday the IBB closed up +1.72% while the XBI closed up +0.65%
Monday the IBB closed up +1.31% while the XBI closed up +1.44%

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

Thursday the close was negative with an A/D line of 13/27, 3 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;
Wednesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 16/26, 0 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;
Tuesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 16/23, 3 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;
Monday the close was positive with an A/D line of 28/13, 1 flats, 1 reversed merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired;

Henry’omics:

The major indexes struggled for direction as investors anticipate corporate earnings.

Weakness i.e. sentiment continues as the cell and gene therapy’s sentiment is just emotionally oriented to individual equities.

Notice the IBB +0.10%) jumped (weighted with larger biotech) while the XBI’s (-0.29%) small caps are still collapsing.

As earnings releases roll … what will be evident is guidance as runways are pretty well defined by cash positions.

In economic news, durable goods orders fell 1.1% in September, notching their largest drop in four months. The drop in orders comes as the world struggles with a global manufacturing slowdown. The Institute for Supply Management said earlier this month that manufacturing activity in the U.S. fell to its lowest level in a decade <CNBC>.

Decliners:

bluebird bio (BLUE -$5.30 after Wednesday’s -$1.57, Tuesday’s -$3.76 and Monday’s +$1.95);
Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.90);
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.86 after Wednesday’s+$0.60, Tuesday’s +$2.40 and Monday’s +$1.98);
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.64);
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.50 after Wednesday’s +$2.58 and Tuesday’s -$1.22);

Incliners:

Spark Therapeutics (ONCE +$7.60 after Wednesday’s +$0.84);
uniQure (QURE +$3.52 after Wednesday’s -$0.85);
CRISPER Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.54);
BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (+$0.44 after Wednesday’s +$1.28 and Tuesday’s -$0.99);
Vericel (VCEL +$0.39);

The percentage (%) indicators:

Thursday’s range of the 13 upside was +0.08% (AXGN) to +8.28% (QURE) while the 27 downside ranged from -0.23% (SGMO) to -6.91% (KOOL);

Wednesday’s range of the 16 upside was +0.33% (AGTC) to +19.47% (VSTM) while the 26 downside ranged from -0.13% (RGNX) to -5.79% (KOOL);

Tuesday’s range of the 16 upside was +0.29% (CLLS) to +6.17% (SLDB) while the 23 downside ranged from -0.08% (MDXG) to -5.97% (AXGN);

Monday’s range of the 28 upside was +0.70% (SAGE) to +7.22% (PSTI +$0.22) while the 13 downside ranged from -0.14% (ONVO) to -7.80% (RENE.L);

Upside volume stats: to compare

Thursday: 3 out of the 13 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Wednesday: 3 out of the 16 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Tuesday: 2 out of the 16 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 5 out of the 28 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

Thursday: 3 out of the 27 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Wednesday: 2 out of the 26 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Tuesday: 8 out of the 23 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 3 out of the 13 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

2 flat – RENE.L and VSTM with 1 reverse merged (HSGX), 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and Spark Therapeutics’ (ONCE) acquisition by Roche is still being delayed (December?)

October’s sessions:

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 13 advancers, 2 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 16 advancers, 0 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 16 advancers, 3 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 28 advancers, 1 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 33 decliners, 7 advancers, 2 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 25 advancers, 0 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 19 decliners, 23 advancers, 0 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 32 advancers, 1 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 29 decliners, 12 advancers, 1 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 29 advancers, 0 flat, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 23 advancers, 2 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 27 decliners, 12 advancers, 3 flats, 1 reverse merged (HSGX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 38 decliners, 4 advancers, 1 flat and 1 reverse merged (HSGX), 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 25 decliners, 17 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 24 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Thursday closed NEUTRAL with 21 decliners, 21 advancers, 1 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 18 advancers, 3 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 36 decliners, 5 advancers, 2 flat and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR);

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

Do you have an opinion you would like to share with us? We would like to hear from you.

Please e-mail us at hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

RegMed Investors (RMi) or Regmedinvestors.com content is the intellectual property of Henry McCusker. Any copying, republication or redistribution of RMI’s content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Scimitar; who also shall not be liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. For additional information on other Scimitar media services or reposting please email hwm@regmedinvestors.com.

The information included above as well as individual companies and/or securities mentioned should be construed as guidance in RMi reviews.

The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.