December 18, 2019 7:52pm

Reiterating, “It’s a question of the levels of share pricing risks that are acceptable”

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs <RENE.L (+$7.50) and RARE (+$1.96)> and 2 MISS < SLDB (-$0.79) and GBT (-$2.71)>

It's a daunting task to understand risk, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules”, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t machine oriented!  

 

It’s also not hard to be right so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight and trusting your “gut” versus the machines or algorithms

 

The Dow closed DOWN -77.88 points (-0.10%), the S&P closed DOWN -1.38 points (-0.04%) and the NASDAQ closed UP +4.38 points (+0.05%)

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday the IBB closed down -0.43% and the XBI closed down -0.56%
  • Tuesday the IBB closed down -0.62% and the XBI closed down -0.07%
  • Monday the IBB closed up +1.04% while and XBI closed up +1.18%

 

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

  • Wednesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 13/23, 3 flats, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 2 acquired;
  • Tuesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 16/22, 1 flat, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 2 acquired;
  • Monday the close was positive with an A/D line of 13/25, 1 flat, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 2 acquired;

 

Henry’omics:

What’s there to say …

Indexes slipped on Wednesday, reversing gains late in trading while “our” universe – the cell and gene therapy sector bottomed again; leaving Monday, last Thursday and the previous Tuesday’s positive closes in the dust.

The S&P 500 has rallied more than 27% year to date and is on pace for its biggest one-year gain since 2013. So far in 2019,the Dow soared +21% while the NASDAQ surged 33%.

 

Right yet again, my contrarian views plays out but, never forget – I am a sector advocate!

 

Decliners:

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -2.69);
  • uniQure (QURE -$2.37 after Tuesday’s -$1.39 and Monday’s -$0.60);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.03 after Tuesday’s -$1.34, Monday’s+$2.22);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.62);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.58 after Tuesday’s +$3.59);

Incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE. L +$7.50 after Tuesday’s -$15.00 and Monday’s +$15.00);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.62);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.69 after Tuesday’s +$0.67);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$1.39 after Tuesday’s +$2.39 and Monday’s -$0.31);
  • BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN +$1.24);

 

The percentage (%) indicators:

  • Wednesday’s range of the 13 upside was +0.07% (BOLD) to +7.54% (CLLS) while the 23 downside ranged from -0.08% (CRSP) to -14.79% (SLDB); 
  • Tuesday’s range of the 16 upside was +0.03% (VCEL) to +15.28% (CLLS) while the 22 downside ranged from -0.14% (BMRN) to -10.91% (RENE.L); 
  • Monday’s range of the 25 upside was +0.57% (MDXG) to +13.66% (BLCM) while the 13 downside ranged from -0.08% (BOLD) to -3.94% (SAGE); 

 

Upside volume stats:  to compare

  • Wednesday: 8 out of the 13 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 7 out of the 16 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 14 out of the 25 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

  • Wednesday: 15 out of the 23 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 9 out of the 22 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 13 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

 

3 flat – BCLI, MDXG and ONCE

 

December’s sessions:

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 13 advancers, 3 flat, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 16 advancers, 1 flat, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 25 advancers, 1 flat, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 16 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 27 advancers, 0 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 13 decliners, 27 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 22 advancers, 2 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 29 advancers, 3 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 25 advancers, 4 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 25 advancers, 4 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 19 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.