Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell:the sector closed down after Thursday’s spurt

December 20, 2019 5:55pm

The cadence was accentuated by the quadruple witching Friday

Pre-open indications: 7 HITs <VSTM (+$0.03), SLDB (-$0.06), NTLA (-$0.02), ALNY (-$1.92) and CRSP (+$2.92), sold into strength < STML (+$0.07), AXGN (+$0.01)> > 1 MISS < BLUE (-$2.54) >

The week that was …

It's a daunting task to understand risk, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules”, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t machine oriented!

It’s also not hard to be right so often, it’s about refining expectation, defining insight and trusting your “gut” versus the machines or algorithms

The Dow closed up +78.13 points (+0.28%), the S&P closed UP +15.85 points (+0.49%) and the NASDAQ closed UP +37.74 points (+0.42%)

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Friday the IBB closed up +0.90% and the XBI closed up +0.27%
Thursday the IBB closed up +0.59% and the XBI closed up +0.50%
Wednesday the IBB closed down -0.43% and the XBI closed down -0.56%
Tuesday the IBB closed down -0.62% and the XBI closed down -0.07%
Monday the IBB closed up +1.04% while and XBI closed up +1.18%

The advance/decline line scenario of 45 covered companies:

Friday the close was negative with an A/D line of 15/19, 3 flats, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 3 acquired (ONCE, AST & OSIR);
Thursday the close was negative with an A/D line of 24/12, 2 flats, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 3 acquired (ONCE, AST & OSIR);
Wednesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 13/23, 3 flats, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 2 acquired;
Tuesday the close was negative with an A/D line of 16/22, 1 flat, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 2 acquired;
Monday the close was positive with an A/D line of 13/25, 1 flat, 2 reversed merged (HSGX & ONVO), 2 dropped (BTX and CUR) and 2 acquired;

Henry’omics:

My composite sector of cell and gene therapy companies declined as many traders sold into any of Thursday’s strength.

BIG winner today was Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.88 or +29.73% to $3.84; is still has a way to go with clinical data due in Q1, hopefully in January. It’s a far cry from my $7.30 entry; anticipation and speculation is at its best.

What was to stop them, I have seen the signs for two (2) weeks.

Indexes rose and made fresh record highs on Friday to end a week that saw solid gains as geopolitical risks abated – hopefully so, until the signatures dry on the agreement(s).

From my “Data Docket” posted this a.m., - consumer spending growth for Q3 was revised higher to 3.2% from 2.9%. Sentiment among consumers also remained strong in December.

The S&P 500 was up more than 1.5% for the week and posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The Dow was up +1.2% and NASDAQ was up 2.1% for the week. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also had their best weekly performance since August.

The S&P 500 is up nearly 28.5% year to date with less than 10 trading days left in 2019. That would be the index’s best one-year performance since 2013, when it rallied 29.6% <CNBC>.

Decliners:

bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.54 after Thursday’s-$1.48, Wednesday’s -$1.58 and Tuesday’s +$3.59;
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.92 after Thursday’s +$2.51);
Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.66 after Thursday’s+$0.61);
BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.63);
uniQure NV (QURE -$0.63);

Incliners:

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP (+$2.92);
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.95 after Thursday’s +$1.54 and Wednesday’s +$2.62);
Global Blood therapeutics (GBT +$1.060;
Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.88 or +29.73%);
Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.48 after Thursday’s -$0.69);

The percentage (%) indicators:

Friday’s range of the 15 upside was +0.06% (AXGN) to +29.83% (AGTC) while the 19 downside ranged from -0.16% (NTLA) to -4.01% (XON);
Thursday’s range of the 13 upside was +0.09% (ADVM) to +8.33% (VSTM) while the 23 downside ranged from -0.06% (QURE) to -4.72% (RARE);
Wednesday’s range of the 13 upside was +0.07% (BOLD) to +7.54% (CLLS) while the 23 downside ranged from -0.08% (CRSP) to -14.79% (SLDB);
Tuesday’s range of the 16 upside was +0.03% (VCEL) to +15.28% (CLLS) while the 22 downside ranged from -0.14% (BMRN) to -10.91% (RENE.L);
Monday’s range of the 25 upside was +0.57% (MDXG) to +13.66% (BLCM) while the 13 downside ranged from -0.08% (BOLD) to -3.94% (SAGE);

Upside volume stats: to compare

Friday: 9 out of the 15 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Thursday: 8 out of the 24 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Wednesday: 8 out of the 13 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Tuesday: 7 out of the 16 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 14 out of the 25 upside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

Downside volume stats:

Friday: 12 out of the 19 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Thursday: 5 out of the 12 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Wednesday: 15 out of the 23 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Tuesday: 9 out of the 22 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;
Monday: 9 out of the 13 downside had higher than the 3 month average volume;

3 flat – ATHX, BSTG & RENE.L

December’s sessions:

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 19 decliners, 15 advancers, 3 flats, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 3 acquired (ONCE, AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 24 advancers, 2 flats, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 3 acquired (ONCE, AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 23 decliners, 13 advancers, 3 flat, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Tuesday closed NEGATIVE with 22 decliners, 16 advancers, 1 flat, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Monday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 25 advancers, 1 flat, 2 dropped (BTX & CUR) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 2 reversed (HSGX & ONVO);

Friday closed NEGATIVE with 24 decliners, 16 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Thursday closed POSITIVE with 14 decliners, 27 advancers, 0 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Wednesday closed NEGATIVE with 13 decliners, 27 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 17 decliners, 22 advancers, 2 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Friday closed POSITIVE with 9 decliners, 29 advancers, 3 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Thursday closed NEGATIVE with 31 decliners, 9 advancers, 1 flat, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Wednesday closed POSITIVE with 13 decliners, 25 advancers, 4 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Tuesday closed POSITIVE with 12 decliners, 25 advancers, 4 flats, 1 dropped (BTX) and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Monday closed NEGATIVE with 26 decliners, 19 advancers, 2 flats and 2 acquired (AST & OSIR) and 1 reversed (HSGX);

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

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Insight, foresight and recommendation

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.