RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: another wild swing

January 26, 2021 5:10pm

And deep dive in the advance/decline (A/D) line followed by pricing depreciation

Pre-open indication: 6 HITs and 1 MISS

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Are we here to make money or see share pricing erode as earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is about to begin? Numbers based facts speak better then opinion as I see answers in numbers

The Dow closed DOWN -22.96 points (-0.07%); the S&P closed DOWN -5.74 points (-0.15%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -9.93 points (-0.07%)

Henry’omics:

The sector is taking a beat-down …

While U.S. stocks were little changed on Tuesday as corporate earnings season RAMPED-UP as strong earnings results from some of the larger companies had an impact.

Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:

• Health officials and policymakers continued to caution the public about new strains of the Covid-19 virus.

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

• Tuesday 25.30 M cases,
• Tuesday’s death rate totaled 421,670 <Johns Hopkins University>

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “volatility reigns as non-sector earnings flood the session While fundamentals get forgotten, short-positions are soon to be exercised” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11738

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

• Tuesday opened negative at 13/21 and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day to 7/26 and 2 flats, closing negative at 3/31 and 1 acquired;
• Monday opened positive at 22/10 and 3 flats, flipped neutral at 16/16 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day to 14/20 and 1 flat, flipped again positive at 22/12 and 1 flat closing positive at 21/13 and 1 acquired;

Pre-open indication:

• 6 HITs <SELL into Strength: Vericel (VCEL -$2.78), Ultragenyx (RARE -$6.79), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.67), Athersys (ATHX -$0.07), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.85), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.26); 1 MISS < PUMPED: Biostage (BSTG +$0.28 with 2,452 shares traded to exercise warrants>.

Key metrics:

• Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 3 -upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 9 of 31-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +1.37% (BLCM) to +18.42% (BSTG) while the 31-downside ranges from -0.11% (MESO) to-10.01% (NTLA);

There are clear winners — and losers — in the first month of 2021.

All-time highs:

• XBI reached an all-time high of 158.74 which dropped to 154.38

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

• Brainstorm cell Therapeutics (BCLI), Biostage (BSTG), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM), to name 3 of the 3 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Ultragenyx (RARE) to name 5 of the 31 declining of the 35 covered

Tuesday’s (3 of 3) incliners:

• Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.86);
• Biostage (BSTG +$0.28);
• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.060;

Tuesday’s (10 of 31) decliners:

• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$11.71 after Monday’s -$7.25);
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$7.15 after Monday’s -$2.96);
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$6.98 after Monday’s +$1.91);
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$6.83 after Monday’s -$1.05);
• Ultragenyx (RARE -$6.79 after Monday’s +$6.29);
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.67 after Monday’s +$3.31);
• ReNeuron (RENE.L -$5.00 after Monday’s -$2.00);
• Editas Medicine (EDIT -$4.79 after Monday’s -$0.29);
• Vericel (VCEL -$2.68 after Monday’s +$2.40);
• Regenxbio (RGNX -$2.68 after Monday’s +$1.71);

Closing 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Friday, the IBB closed down -1.74% and XBI closed down -1.76%
• Monday, the IBB closed up +1.86% and XBI closed up +3%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Tuesday was down -0.17 points or -0.73% at 23.02
• Monday was up +1.28 points or +5.84% at 23.19

Upside volume:

• Tuesday: 9 out of the 31-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Monday: 6 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

• Tuesday: 1 out of the 3-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Monday: 7 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

• Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 3-upside were +1.37% (BLCM) to +18.42% (BSTG) while the 31-downside ranges from -0.11% (MESO) to-10.01% (NTLA);
• Monday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.10% (CLLS) to +10.82% (ATHX) while the 13-downside ranges from -0.44% (EDIT) to -4.18% (CLBS);

January, the 1^st month of Q1 …

Tuesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 31 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (1/25) closed positive with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 9 advancers, 25 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 18 advancers, 16 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 18 advancers, 14 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (1/18) was a holiday

Friday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 10 advancers, 21 decliners and 4 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 flat

Monday (1/11) closed negative with 13 advancers, 20 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 16 advancers, 18 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed positive with 31 advancers, 2 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 22 advancers, 12 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 19 advancers, 14 decliners and 2 flats

Monday (1/4) closed positive with 26 advancers, 7 decliners and 2 flats

The Bottom Line: A deep swing downward …

Signs of a bubble continues to concern me, record highs declining quickly to come back in a variety of equities. 

There is STILL a short-term tone in the sector – “our’ universe of RegMed, stem, cell and gene therapy equities.

To make money in this sector, one has to know when to get out and which individual equity you should stay in!

Forewarned … Earnings LPS (los-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!!

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.