February 4, 2021 5:19pm

Risk-on’ equities are rocking upward

Pre-open indication results: 6 HITs and 1 MISS

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More than a snapshot of today’s sector movements, are you ready - sector earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is about to begin? 

The Dow closed UP +332.26 points (+1.08%); the S&P closed UP +41.57 points (+1.09%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +167.20 points (+1.23%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Thursday as investors assess earnings and economic data.

So far this week, the Dow has gained more than 3.6%, while the S&P 500 inclined +4.2% and the Nasdaq has risen +5.4%.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) dropped sharply as the market recovered from last week’s losses. The fear gauge fell from its 30-plus level at Friday’s close to around 22.9 Wednesday, posting its largest three-day decline ever. <CNBC>

On the stimulus front, Democrats are moving forward with President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief proposal. Republicans have countered with a more modest $618 billion package, which includes new stimulus checks of $1,000 per person – let’s see which “political party” wins?

 

An interesting measurement stick:

  • Four (4) biotech companies—Sana Biotechnology (SANA), Landos Biopharma (LSBP), Sensei Biotherapeutics (SNSE) all went public today.
  • Bristol Myers (BMY) beat estimates although the stock didn’t Go anywhere as BMY reported non-GAAP earnings of $1.46 per share for the quarter on Thursday, just above the FactSet consensus estimate of $1.42 per share.

 

Data Docket: Fewer people filed initial claims for benefits last week than the week before, and the total was well below what economists expected. First-time claims for unemployment insurance totaled 779,000 for the week ended Jan. 30, below the 830,000 estimate.  

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “some sector equities struggling for direction. COVID-19 vaccine sentiment stays low, as some states suffer logistical failures, falling behind in vaccinating many especially seniors” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11754

 

Pre-open indication results:  6 HITs < BUY: Athersys (ATHX +$0.12), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.83), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.29), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.02), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.15), UniQure NV (QURE +$0.46) and 1 MISS < SELL: Biostage (BSTG +$0.06 with 2,348 shares traded – “pumped” – was down -$0.20 with 750 shares traded until the ‘fix” came through)>

 

Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:

  • A better-than-expected jobless claims report helped boost sentiment.

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

  • Thursday 26.56 M cases,
  • Thursday’s death rate totaled 450,887 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Thursday opened positive at 24/9 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 27/7 and 1 acquired, closing positive at 27/7 and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened positive at 23/9 and 3 flats, strayed negative at the mid-day to 15/18 and 2 flats, closing barely positive at 17/16, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened positive at 21/12 and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 22/10 and 3 flats, closing positive at 25/7, 2 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 27/7 and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day to 27/7 and 1 flat, closing positive at 22/11, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 6 of the 27-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 0 of 7-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 27-upside were +0.12% (GBT) to +27.71% (BCLI) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.27% (VYGR) to -4.67% (RENE.L);

 

There are clear winners — and losers — heading into the second month and Q1 of 2021.

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx (RARE), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Cellectis SA (CLLS) to name 5 of the 27 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Regenxbio (RGNX), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Mesoblast (MESO), Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) to name 7 of the 7 declining of the 35 covered

 

Thursday’s (10 of 27) incliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.66 after Wednesday’s -$2.80, Tuesday’s +$4.80 and Monday’s -$1.23);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$4.76 after Wednesday’s -$2.91, Tuesday’s +$7.52 and Monday’s +$7.04);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$4.38 after Wednesday’s +$0.75, Tuesday’s +$4.83 and Monday’s +$2.53);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.29 after Wednesday’s -$3.65, Tuesday’s +$2.47 and Monday’s -$0.02);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$2.80 after Wednesday’s -$5.95);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$1.71 after Wednesday’s +$0.30);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.67);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.15 after Wednesday’s -$3.92, Tuesday’s +$6.37 and Monday’s +$1.53);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.02 after Wednesday’s -$3.51, Tuesday’s +$2.78 and Monday’s +$1.54);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.83);

Thursday’s (7 of 7) decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L $5.00 after Wednesday’s +$1.00);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS -$1.83);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.38);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.32 after Wednesday’s -$0.74, Tuesday’s +$1.57 and Monday’s +$1.67);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.11);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.08 after Wednesday’s +$0.11, Tuesday’s -$0.02 after Monday’s -$0.42);
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR-$0.02 after Wednesday’s -$0.51);

Closing 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +1.37% and XBI closed up +1.06%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.38% and XBI closed down -1.33%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.11% and XBI closed up +2.27%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.28% and XBI closed up +4.41%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -1.14 points or -4.98% at 21.77
  • Wednesday was down -2.65 points or -10.37% at 22.91
  • Tuesday was down -4.68 points or -15.48% at 25.56
  • Monday was down -2.85 points or -8.61% at 30.24

Upside volume:

  • Thursday: 6 out of the 27-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 17-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 10 out of the 25-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 22-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Thursday: 0 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 5 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 7-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 11-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: a 360 degrees comparison of % and pricing

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 27-upside were +0.12% (GBT) to +27.71% (BCLI) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.27% (VYGR) to -4.67% (RENE.L);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 17-upside were +0.03% (IONS) to +9.73% (AGTC) while the 16-downside ranges from -0.53% (ADVM) to -20.60% (CLLS);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 25-upside were +0.08% (GBT) to +9.93% (NTLA) while the 7-downside ranges from -0.47% (BLCM) to-12.47% (PSTI);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the22 -upside were +0.16% (ADVM) to +26.10% (ATHX) while the 11-downside ranges from -0.01% (CRSP) to -9.03% (BLCM);

 

February, the 2nd month of Q1 … a visual review identifies the range of sector volatility

Thursday closed positive with 27 advancers, 7 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 17 advancers, 16 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 25 advancers, 7 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (2/1) closed positive with 22 advancers, 11 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The Bottom Line: As new highs evolve, so won’t the declines as electronic trading reap profits before earnings’ season appears – keep watching the advance/decline (A/D) lines.

They broke the “line” today by advancing, my miss but, I won’t back down from one fundamental factor to watch.

Let’s NOT forget, it is a new tax year thus, a cut back of some (I say many) gains in the sector before the release of Q4 and FY20 “earnings” i.e., LPS (loss-per-share)!

Forewarned … earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.