February 8, 2021 7:54am
Is it better to be early than being caught in a downdraft; expectation is a strong belief that something will happen or be the case in the future in the game of market “prospects” and sector “chance”?
Pre-open indication: 3 BUYs and 4 SELLs
News: uniQure N.V. (QURE) the independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) overseeing the P1/2 clinical trial of AMT-130 for the treatment of Huntington’s disease has met and reviewed the six-month safety data from the first two enrolled patients and the 90-day safety data from the next two enrolled patients in the study. QURE expects to achieve full patient enrollment in cohort one by mid-year 2021.
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Dow futures are UP +0.43% (+135 points), S&P futures are UP +0.32% (+12.50 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.26% (+35.75 points)
U.S. stock index futures are up early Monday;
European stocks were higher with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index was 0.4% higher in morning trade;
Asia-Pacific stocks were also mostly higher (as Hong Kong closed mixed) with MSCI’s broadest index (of Asia-Pacific shares) outside Japan rose 0.36%.
Last week, the Dow +3.9%, the S&P +4.7% and Nasdaq +6% achieved their best week since November when even the small-cap Russell 2000 rallied 7.7% for its best weekly performance since June.
Could it be a sign, “the Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, has fallen more than 12 points this week to around 21 Friday with a speculative trading frenzy dissipating”.
How much bubblegum is being chewed in these markets …?
Friday’s evening’s recap: “capping-out another better than good week; Covid-19’s grip disappoints jobs data but, doesn’t stymie the sectors upside as momentum continues to thrive” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11758
- The Nasdaq closed UP +78.65 points (+0.57%);
- The IBB closed up +1.76% and XBI closed up +2.46%;
- Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 3 of 6-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was down -0.90 points or -4.13% at 20.97
- Friday’s percentage (%) of the 28-upside were +0.01% (SLDB) to +17.37% (AGTC) while the 6-downside ranges from -0.27% (VYGR) to -10.53% (BCLI);
February: 5 positive closes to date
January: 10 positive, 9 negative closes and 1 holiday, so far
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
Biostage (BSTG) closed down -$0.06 to $2.00 after Thursday’s +$2.06 with 1,500 shares traded after Wednesday’s $2.00 with 100 shares traded after Tuesday’s being flat at $1.93 with 205 shares traded, and last Monday’s +$0.13 to $1.93 with 1,200 shares traded.
- Question#1: As of 1/29/20, from an 8-K filed 2/4/21… WHY the departure of “Danforth Advisors, LLC (“Danforth”) WHO notified Biostage, that “Danforth was terminating its Consulting Agreement with the Company. As a result, and effective as of such termination, James Mastridge, is no longer serving as the Company’s interim Vice President of Finance or principal accounting and financial officer. The Company is actively in the process of identifying a qualified candidate to serve as the Company’s principal accounting and financial officer.”
- Question#2: I am NOT the ONLY one who has seen the BSTG “troubles” in financial reporting and operations; WHAT are the other ISSUES that a recognized, extremely responsible and quality firm <Danforth Advisors> see as an impediment to an audit and financial review for Q4 and ending FY20?
- Question#3: WHAT will RSM US LLP, BSTG’s audit firm NOW do as yet another financial officer (7 to date) leaves – don’t they have a FIDUCIARY responsibility to report to the SEC after all these financial/accounting employment terminations in the past years?
- Question#4: Does it also put MORE fiduciary and transparency responsibility on the new board and audit committee member, Herman Sanchez?
- Question#5: WHY the constant revolving door – operational and leadership ISSUES – should organizational stability be a factor that should be addressed by RSM US LLP in their Q4 and FY20 audit valuation and verifications?
SELL into strength:
AxoGen (AXGN) closed up +$0.74 to $19.81 after Thursday’s $19.07, Wednesday’s $18.63, Tuesday’s $18.50 and last Monday’s $17.67 with a positive +$0.19 or +0.96% aftermarket indication. AXGN reports Q4 and FY20 on 2/22 having announced preliminary guidance of revenue expectation at least $32.4 million, a 15% increase compared to Q4/19 revenue of $28.2 million; full-year 2020 revenue is expected to be at least $112.2 million, a 5% increase compared to 2019 revenue of $106.7 million and revenue from the top 10% active accounts accounting for approximately 35% of total revenue in the quarter;
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$41.25 to $1.35 after Thursday’s -$0.32, Wednesday’s -$0.74, Tuesday’s +$1.57 and last Monday’s +$1.67 – that’s +$3.57 or +8.5% in five (5) sessions. There is a very positive 52-week change of +198.56% with a 52-week low of $7.37 and high of $47.22 and short percentage (%) of float of 2.80%.
Ionis Therapeutics (IONS) closed up +$0.78 to $60.19 after Thursday’s -$1.83 to $59.41, Wednesday’s $61.24, Tuesday’s $61.22 and last Monday’s $58.97 with a negative -$1.00 or -1.66% aftermarket indication.
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed up +$2.57 to $105.28 after Thursday’s +$4.38, Wednesday’s +$0.75, Tuesday’s +$4.83 and last Monday’s +$2.53 with a positive +$0.81 or +0.77% pre-market indication. A $15.06 or +14.31% move over five (5) sessions, a 52-week change of +293.53%, a 52-week low of $16.75 and a high of $121.16 with a short percentage (5) of float of 15%.
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) closed up +$0.74 to $50.81 after Thursday’s $50.07, Wednesday’s $50.01, Tuesday’s $49.53 and last Monday’s $49.49 with a positive +0.19 or +0.37% pre-market indication. A +$1.32 move in only five (5) sessions and a 52-week change of -29.95%, 52-week low of $36.49 and a high of $83.69 with a short percentage (%) of float of 21.04%
uniQure NV (QURE) closed down -$0.17 to $36.00 after Thursday’s $36.17, Wednesday’s $35.71, Tuesday’s $36.40 and last Monday’s $36.00 with a positive +$1.80 or +5% pre-market indication. A 52-week change of -42.68%, a 52-week low of $34.38 and a high of $71.45 and a short percentage (%) of float of 7.53%. News continues, (from title) “No significant safety concerns were noted to prevent further dosing, and the final six patients in the first cohort are now cleared for enrollment. uniQure expects to achieve full patient enrollment in cohort one by mid-year 2021. The P1/2 study is a double-blind, randomized clinical trial being conducted in the United States. To date, two patients have been treated with AMT-130, and two patients received the imitation surgery.”
The BOTTOM LINE: It’s all about, the appetite for risk …
After five (5) straight sessions of gains, the major averages are on pace their best weekly performance since November; or are they …?
I am NOT the only one to mention the word “bubble”, “Let’s settle one thing up front. We’re clearly witnessing a speculative bubble in the financial markets. This time is no different. This mania will end the same way they all do: in tears. I started banging the gong in mid-2020 about the imminent risk of financial crisis stemming from three potential causes: a severe market correction, a deteriorating U.S. fiscal position from unsustainable growth in deficits and debt, and the inflation that was likely to follow.” <Barons>
Reiterating, “There is STILL a short-term tone in the sector – “our’ universe of RegMed, stem, cell and gene therapy equities.”
Again, “forewarned … earnings LPS (los-per-share) season is coming quickly – my advice, trim and skim!”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.