February 18, 2021 5:21pm

Expected as discouraging data after record highs and fragile sentiment cursed any upside; maybe we should call it; a negative Black Swan, which is where the downside of the event is unbounded while the upside is depressed

Pre-open indication results: 5 HITs and 2 MISS

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The Dow closed DOWN -119.68 points (-0.38%); the S&P closed DOWN -17.36 points (-0.44%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -100.14 points (-0.72%)

 

Henry’omics:

Sector stocks slid through-out the session … a gutterball day at the bowling alley.

Indexes slid on Thursday as investors were discouraged by a worse-than-expected jobless claims reading.

 

Data Docket: the latest jobless claims number signaled a setback in the labor market recovery. First-time filings for unemployment insurance totaled 861,000 last week, the highest level in a month and above the Dow Jones estimate of 773,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

 

Who and what’s hot today: from the title, after the falling knives, forks and spoons - it was like a Greek wedding – even the dishes got broken!

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “bottom, bottom where and which is the dip worth buying” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11774    

 

Pre-open indication results:  5 HITs < SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.11 with 303 shares traded); BUY: AxoGen (AXGN +$0.29); SELL into Strength: Verastem Oncology (VSTM -$0.01), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.10), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.37) and 2 MISS < BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.95), Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.11)>   

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions …

  • Thursday opened negative at 3/30 and 2 flats, stayed negative at the mid-day to 3/31 and 1 acquired, closing negative at 2/32 and 1 acquired;

 

There are clear winners and losers ... 

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • AxoGen (AXGN), MiMedx (MDXG) to name 2 of the 2 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Regenxbio (RGNX) to name 5 of the 32 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 2-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the increased volume of 7 of 32-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 2-upside were +1.24% (MDXG) to +1.49% (AXGN) while the 32-downside ranges from -0.11% (RARE) to -11.69% (FIXX);

 

Thursday’s (2 of 2) incliners, keep your “profiting” eyes on some of these upsides:

  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.29 after Tuesday’s +$0.15);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.12);

Thursday’s (10 of 32) decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$7.50 after Wednesday’s -$1.53 and Tuesday’s +$1.50);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$6.30 after Wednesday’s +$2.72 and Tuesday’s -$4.11);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$4.01 after Wednesday’s -$1.90 and Tuesday’s -$2.05);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.37 after Wednesday’s -$5.29 and Tuesday’s -$5.73);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$2.44 after Wednesday’s -$1.53);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.19 after Wednesday’s +$0.65);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$1.59);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$1.49 after Wednesday’s -$1.82 after Tuesday’s +$0.16);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.15 after Wednesday’s +$0.06 and Tuesday’s -$1.49);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.12 after Wednesday’s +$1.78);

Closing 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

Sentiment and COVID-19 infections:

  • Good quote, “This is not the direction that you want to see jobless claims go but keep in mind this could be a small bump in the road as the pace for vaccinations continues to accelerate and cases are down across the country,” said Mike Loewengart, chief investment officer at E-Trade Financial.” <CNBC>

Infection cases <Million>: never to forget …

  • Thursday 27.86 M cases,
  • Thursday’s death rate totaled 491,724 <Johns Hopkins University>

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -1.69% and XBI closed down -2.60%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.99 points or +4.60% at 22.49

Upside volume: low

  • Thursday: 1 out of the 2-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume: low

  • Thursday: 7 out of the 32-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: % and pricing drop

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 2-upside were +1.24% (MDXG) to +1.49% (AXGN) while the 32-downside ranges from -0.11% (RARE) to -11.69% (FIXX);

 

February, the 2nd month of Q1 … a visual review identifies the range of sector volatility

Thursday closed negative with 2 advancers, 32 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The Bottom Line: Yesterday, I had felt a “risk-on” signal … was in the cards for today and it was a TOTAL wipe-out of the sector.

Forewarned … earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season is upon us – see all indications, hear all rumors, don’t, listen to the volume and watch momentum!

I just don’t see bottoms until post earnings’ season as the market pull-back “ain’t” over.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.