April 23, 2021 7:37am
End-of-week pricing tends to decline, the closer distance in time to earnings’ reviews
Pre-open indications: 5 SELL remarks (ADVM, BLUE, PGEN, QURE, VCEL) and 1 Maintain SELL (BSTG)
My version of the morning’s “numbers” is written to be informative rather than just about changes to share pricing; it’s what happened or will materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session
My comments are important in trying to distinguish the temporary from real pricing progress.
Dow futures are UP +0.13% (+44 points), S&P futures are UP +0.21% (+8 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.16% (+22 points)
U.S. stock indexes were slightly positive Friday morning but, I think fragile,
European markets were little changed as global stocks search for direction to end the week
Shares in Asia-Pacific markets were mixed
Data Docket: IHS Markit’s euro zone flash PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings (60 from 56.4) for April showed the economic recovery gathering pace (U.K. retail sales soared 5.4% in March).
The S&P 500 (-1.2%), Dow (-1.1%) and Nasdaq (-1.6%) were down so far this week.
The potential capital gains tax (capital gains rate to 39.6% for those earning $1 million or more, up from 20% currently) appeared to weigh on sentiment Thursday afternoon by late afternoon selling but, such a proposal would face in a split Senate.
Thursday’s evening’s recap: “a volatile market session with the cell and gene therapy sector maintaining altitude; even with a Biden driven market decline as President will propose higher capital gains tax hike” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11879
- The Nasdaq closed DOWN -131.80 points (-0.94%)
- The IBB closed up to +0.06% and XBI closed up +1.33%
- Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 24-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 0 of 8 downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was up +1.21 points or +6.91% at 18.71
- Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 24-upside were +0.15% (FIXX) to +15.50% (BSTG) while the 8-downside ranges from -0.01% (FATE) to -3.84% (MESO);
Q2/21 and April: 7 negative and 8 positive closes
- March: 10 positive, 12 negative and 1 neutral closes
- February: 9 positive, 10 negative closes and 1 holiday
- January: 10 positive, 9 negative closes and 1 holiday
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
Biostage (BSTG): Questions continue … Maintaining Sell
Biostage (BSTG) closed up +$0.15 to $1.15 with 1,202 shares traded after Wednesday’s flat at $1.00 with 250 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.28 to $1.00 with 6,816 shares traded, Monday’s -$0.06 (was down -$0.23 until minutes before the close) to $1.28 with 1,760 shares traded and last Friday’s +$0.01 to $1.34 with 510 shares traded.
Question#1: From March 19, 2020 filing, “the FDA notified the Company that the clinical hold on its CEI product candidate has been removed and the Company may proceed with its First in Human (FIH) Clinical study. This FDA approval enables us to start clinical planning, including engaging with a clinical research organization and site readiness in advance of starting the clinical trial for our CEI product candidate.” WHY has there been no further actions after a year and a month’s time from HOLD being lifted?
Question#2: WHERE is the next level of funding coming from, is it further warrant execution - the only cash generation for further funding?
Question#3: Will $1 million dollars remaining in the “till” last through the quarter? Should its “runway” be considered extremely short or even non-existent?
Question#4: Is past emphasis and frequent quote (im meetings at MY house) by VP of business development and operations, ShunFu Hu – that BANKRUPCY is a “possible” (as current funds won’t meet the Q’s end)?
MINORITY PUBLIC shareholders are waiting, watching and weighing responses to MAINTAIN their RIGHTS.
I’m (sort of) abstaining again from the morning’s prognostications, although, what I “feel” declines are in store at:
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) – a “proxy” fight coming, Sonic Fund II, L.P. Is Not seeking to gain control of the Board – It Is Instead seeking to add independent BOD members with experience and to prevent further entrenchment?
- bluebird bio (BLUE) – a pre-market indicator of -$1.14 or -3.96%,
- Precigen (PGEN) – a “peaky” chart.
- UniQure NV (QURE) – why be motivated to buy?
- Vericel (VCEL) – another “peaky” chart
The BOTTOM LINE: With stocks hovering near all-time highs and the early stages of the post-pandemic recovery already under way, any additional moves higher will likely come with some difficulty!
What the sector is suffering the absence of a catalysts.
Everything we’ve got to look forward to is the next wave of Q1 earnings or as I call them LPS (loss-per-share) numbers.
Volatility has been boosted by algorithmic or electronic selling; however, periods of elevated volatility can present … temporary opportunities!
I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!” I also see some lows that could be in the “pick-up” stock game.
I say, re-asses your risk as some questionable earnings are on the horizon.
Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.