April 30, 2021 7:40am
Cell and gene therapy earnings’ reports are falling short of forecasts and guidance to the future; “runways” are one key to future actions
Pre-open indications: 3 BUY, 6 SELLs and 1 Maintain SELL
News: Mesoblast (MESO) Remestemcel-L reduced mortality through 60 days in the pre-specified population under 65 years old. In these patients the benefit was further increased when remestemcel-L was used with dexamethasone as part of a standard of care
Mentions: AGTC, BLUE, BSTG, CRSP, EDIT, FATE, MDXG, MESO, NTLA, SAGE, VCEL
My version of the morning’s “numbers” is written to be informative rather than just about changes to share pricing; it’s what happened or will materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
Dow futures are DOWN -0.47% (-158 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.57% (-24 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.73% (-102 points)
Futures contracts tied to the major U.S. stock indexes are diving pre-open on Friday,
European stocks opened slightly higher
Asia-Pacific markets struggled for gains as investors turned cautious,
- Australia’s ASX 200 closed down, the Japanese market returned to trading after being closed Thursday for a holiday, Chinese mainland shares fell and Indian shares also declined.
Data Docket: personal income and spending data, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET
- Data showed China’s factory activity expanded at a slower-than-expected pace in April as the official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index fell to 51.1, from 51.9 in March.
Shares rose 2% in premarket trading, but is it enough to lift sentiment for the whole market.
This week, the S&P 500 is up 0.75%, the Dow is up less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq is up 0.47%.
Thursday’s evening’s recap: “the trend was definitely not our friend today as the upside trail got cold. Isn’t Biostage (BSTG) proving its “zombie” status with 3,302 shares traded and no pricing move although the “pump and promote” continued?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11889
- The Nasdaq closed UP +31.52 points (+0.22%);
- The IBB closed down -1.19% and XBI closed down -1.17%;
- Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 5 of 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was up +0.26 points or +1.50% at 17.54;
- Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.26% (CLLS) to +6.63% (KDNY) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.26% (BLFS) to -62.30% (ADVM);
Q2/21 and April: 10 negative and 10 positive closes
- March: 10 positive, 12 negative and 1 neutral closes
- February: 9 positive, 10 negative closes and 1 holiday
- January: 10 positive, 9 negative closes and 1 holiday
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:
Biostage (BSTG): Questions continue … Maintaining Sell
Biostage (BSTG) closed flat at $1.26 with3,302 shares traded after Wednesday’s -$0.02 to $1.26 with 830 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.18 to $1.28 with 1,458 shares traded, Monday’s $1.10 with 407 shares traded and last Friday’s -$0.05 to $1.10 with 151 shares traded.
Question#1: Herman Sanchez as the new board member, how can you condone these multiple irregularities and “goings-on”. WHAT has happened to transparency?
Question#2: WHY do they NOT update their website as more of their leadership walks away? WHY do they NEED to misrepresent their management team?
Question#3: WHERE is the next level of funding coming from, is it further warrant execution - the only source of cash generation for funding? Will the $1 million dollars remaining in the “till” last through the quarter? Should its “runway” be considered extremely short or even non-existent?
Question#4: Notice the volume numbers per session. WHY the need to “pump, promote and inflate” the share price as the volume reflects the manipulation to execute the last remaining warrants?
MINORITY PUBLIC shareholders are waiting, watching and weighing responses to MAINTAIN their RIGHTS.
The morning’s indications, from what I discern are in store:
Maintaining SELL into Strength:
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed up again +$0.13 after Wednesday’s +$0.22, Tuesday’s $0.38 and last Monday’s -$0.09 with a positive +$0.10 or +2.33% aftermarket indication.
- CRISPR Indication (CRSP) closed down -$3.66 after Wednesday’s +$2.50, Tuesday’s -$2.68, Monday’s +$9.17 and last Friday’s +$0.66 with a negative -$0.68 or -0.52% pre-market indication.
- Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$1.55 after Wednesday’s -$0.23, Tuesday’s $0.07, Monday’s -$2.17 and last Friday’s +$0.62 with a positive +$0.04 or +0.11% pre-market indication.
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$5.23 to $80.58 after Wednesday’s $85.31, Tuesday’s $87.07, Monday’s $84.79 and last Friday’s $78.29 with a negative -$0.58 or -0.72% aftermarket indication.
- MiMedx (MDXG) closed down -$0.53 to $10.18 after Wednesday’s +$0.23 to $10.71, Tuesday’s $10.48 and Monday’s $10.63 and Friday’s $11.21 with a negative -$0.57 or -5.32% aftermarket indication after reporting Q1 earnings.
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$1.21 after Wednesday’s -$0.11, Tuesday’s -$0.92 and Monday’s +$1.93 with a negative -$3.87 or -4.91% aftermarket indication.
- bluebird bio (BLUE) closed down -$0.16 after Wednesday’s +$0.08, Tuesday’s -$0.01, Monday’s +$0.12 and last Friday’s +$0.06 with a positive +0.12 or +0.40% aftermarket indication;
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed down -$6.22 to $85.87 after Wednesday’s $92.09, Tuesday’s $92.52, Monday’s $92.01 and Friday’s $85.34 with a positive +$1.63 or +1.90% pre-market indication.
- Mesoblast (MESO) closed down -$0.10 to $7.22 with a positive +$1.28 or +17.73% pre-market indication.
The BOTTOM LINE: I haven’t been wrong in seeing trouble ahead in the markets and any prognostication could be somewhat difficult or unpleasant thus I anticipate hesitating until the overview comes clear before “biting the bullet".
At the moment, the only “thing” we’ve got to look forward to is the next wave of Q1 earnings or as I call them LPS (loss-per-share) numbers. Will reporting take the sector down?
My focus has always been “warning analysis” … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!” I also see some lows that could be in the “pick-up” stock game.
I say, re-asses your risk as some questionable earnings are on the horizon.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.