April 30, 2021 5:43pm

The sector was cooked overdone

Pre-open indication performance: 9 HITs and 1 MISS

The week in review …

RMi outlines the daily dose of facts and objectivity!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

The Dow closed DOWN -185.51 points (-0.54%); the S&P closed DOWN -30.30 points (-0.72%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -119.86 points (-0.85%)

 

Henry’omics:

Friday’s weakness in equities ended the major averages’ winning week.

Indexes slipped on Friday as investors developed an uncertainty as to new as highs as president Biden’s coming tax increases, the anxiety over looming inflation and just unrest as to market conditions going further.

Although, he S&P 500 notched its third straight month of gains in April, adding more than 5% to the index as investors bet on a big economic and profit recovery from the pandemic. The S&P 500 is now up 11% for the year.

 

RegMed/Cell and Gene Therapy Earnings Scorecard Q1/21 LPS Results … to date: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

 

Data docket: March spending jumped a better-than-expected 4.2%. Personal incomes surged by a massive 21.1% amid more fiscal stimulus.

  • The PCE price index for March increased 0.5% month-over-month and 2.3% on a year-over-year basis. The core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% for March and 1.8% year-over-year. The PCE inflation metric is watched closely by the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell warned earlier in the week it may show a transitory increase in prices.
  • The inflation numbers apparently weren’t as high as feared, as the 10-year yield remained flat after the numbers were released. <CNBC>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: progressions and regressions

  • Friday opened positive at 27/10, 2 flats and 1 acquired, slipped negative at the mid-day to 16/19, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 10/c23, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened negative at 7/26, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 9/23, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 5/29, 1 flat and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day to 20/13, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 20/12, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 10/30, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative at 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened positive at 20/12, 2 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 30/3, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive at 31/2, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “last trading session of April. Cell and gene therapy earnings’ reports are falling short of forecasts and guidance to the future; “runways” are one key to future actions.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11890

 

Pre-open indication results:  9 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00 at $1.26 with 1,009 shares traded – “pumped and promoted” and still stayed flat); SELL into Strength: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.07), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.61), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.02), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$3.31), MiMedx (MDXG -$0.48), Mesoblast (MESO +$0.44), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.52), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.12> and 1 MISS < bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.23),)>

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Vericel (VCEL), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Mesoblast (MESO), to name 5 of the 10 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Ultragenyx (RARE), uniQure NV (QURE), Global Blood therapeutics (GBT) to name 5 of the 23 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 10-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with the volume of 2 of 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the x-upside were +0.06% (RGNX) to +6.09% (MESO) while the xx-downside ranges from -0.15% (SAGE) to -5.90% (PGEN);

 

Friday’s (10 of 10) incliners:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.52 after Thursday’s -$6.22 after Wednesday’s -$0.43, Tuesday’s +$0.51 and Monday’s +$5.67);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.30 after Thursday’s -$2.10 and Wednesday’s -$0.46);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.95 after Thursday’s -$3.84 after Wednesday’s +$2.23, Tuesday’s -$1.60 and Monday’s +$6.18);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.91 after Thursday’s +$1.06, Wednesday’s +$0.61 and Tuesday’s +$0.32);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.44);
  • BioLife Solutions (+$0.31);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.15 after Thursday’s +$0.01, Wednesday’s +$0.32);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.07 after Thursday’s -$6.33, Wednesday’s +$0.30);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.02 after Thursday’s -$1.00 after Wednesday’s +$0.89 and Tuesday’s -$0.66);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS +$0.01);

Friday’s (10 of 23) decliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L -$5.00 after Thursday’s -$1.00 and Wednesday’s flat)
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$3.31 after Thursday’s -$5.23, Wednesday’s -$1.76, Tuesday’s +$2.28 and Monday’s +$6.50);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.87 after Thursday’s -$1.34 after Wednesday’s +$1.49, Tuesday’s -$1.51 and Monday’s +$5.00);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.78 after Thursday’s +$0.90, Wednesday’s -$1.08, Tuesday’s -$0.72 and Monday’s +2.67);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.01 after Thursday’s +$0.44, Wednesday’s -$0.01 and Tuesday’s -$2.06);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.61 after Thursday’s -$3.66, Wednesday’s +$2.50, Tuesday’s -$2.68 and Monday’s +$9.17);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.50 after Thursday’s+$0.21);
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.49 after Thursday’s +$0.27);
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.48 after Thursday’s -$0.35);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.36 after Thursday’s -$1.55, Wednesday’s -$0.23, Tuesday’s +$0.07 and Monday’s +$2.17);

Closing: 1 flat –Biostage (BSTG) and 1- Stemline Therapeutics (STML – acquired)

 

COVID-19 updates:

  • The TSA extended a federal requirement that travelers on buses, trains, commercial flights and at airports wear face masks.

Monday’s COVID Data Tracker <Million>:

  • Cases: 32.091 M 
  • Death rate totaled 572,190 <Johns Hopkins University>
  • Vaccinations:  240 M

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed down -0.17% and XBI closed down -1.04%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -1.19% and XBI closed down -1.17%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -0.70% and XBI closed up +0.24%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.26% and XBI closed up +0.28%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +1.92% and XBI closed up +3.47%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +1 point or +5.68% at 18.61
  • Thursday was up +0.26 points or +1.50% at 17.54
  • Wednesday was down -0.28 points or -1.59% at 17.28
  • Tuesday was down -0.08 points or -0.45% at 17.56
  • Monday was up +0.31 points or +1.79% at 17.64

 

Upside volume: low

  • Friday: 3 out of the 10-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 1 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 20-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 2 out of the 9-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 9 out of the 31-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume: low

  • Friday: 2 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 5 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 1 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 24-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 2-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: LOW % with limited pricing drops as upside maintains

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the x-upside were +0.06% (RGNX) to +6.09% (MESO) while the xx-downside ranges from -0.15% (SAGE) to -5.90% (PGEN);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.26% (CLLS) to +6.63% (KDNY) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.26% (BLFS) to -62.30% (ADVM);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 20-upside were +0.38% (PGEN) to +9.97% (BLCM) while the 12-downside ranges from -0.02% (GBT) to -5.70% (CLLS);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 9-upside were +0.18% (EDIT) to +16.36% (BSTG) while the 24-downside ranges from -0.14% (FIXX) to -8.78% (AGTC);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 31-upside were +0.47% (AXGN) to +16.49% (VYGR) while the 2-downside ranges from -1.93% (MESO) to -5.17% (MDXG);

 

April, last session of first month of Q2/21:

Friday closed (4/30) negative with 10 advancers, 23 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 9 advancers, 23 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 20 advancers, 12 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 9 advancers, 24 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (4/26) closed positive with 31 advancers, 2 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 16 advancers, 17 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 24 advancers, 8 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 30 advancers, 3 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 20 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (4/19) closed negative with 3 advancers, 31 decliners and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 6 advancers, 27 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 18 advancers, 16 decliners and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 23 advancers, 9 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 23 advancers, 11 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (4/12) closed negative with 4 advancers, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 5 advancers, 26 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 24 advancers, 8 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 3 advancers, 30 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 24 decliners and 1 acquired

Monday (4/5) closed positive with 24 advancers, 8 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday (4/1) closed positive with 19 advancers, 13 decliners, 2 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: the end of the first month of Q2 and what have we sees – a roller-coaster month of alternating positive and negative closes.

What’s new, NOT much has changed, earnings’ season sets the sector on fire burning out the upside?

I am tired of the gloom following boom sessions this month!

As I stated this yesterday, I see trouble ahead in the markets and any prognostication will be something difficult or unpleasant thus I anticipate hesitating over until the overview comes clear about “biting the bullet".

See earnings review: https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11628

Sector momentum remain TOO “fluid” and any pricing more uncertain as earnings’ season LPS (loss-per-share) declines induce more downside risks but, hopefully a few rebounds.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

My time frame of measurement is Friday to Friday and been proved right again, don’t get complacent …

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.