July 28, 2021 5:26pm

Reversing Tuesday’s curse and downslide

News: bluebird’s (BLUE) strategic alliance and will receive $110 million from/with National Resilience’s will acquire its preferred LVV manufacturing access and significantly reduce operational expenses over coming years

Pre-open indications: 9 HITs and 1 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers! 

The Dow closed DOWN -127.59 points (-0.36%); the S&P closed DOWN -0.82 points (-0.02%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +102.01 points (+0.70%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow and the S&P 500 slipped while the Nasdaq jumped on Wednesday after the Fed said the economy continues to made progress toward its goals, but more substantial improvement is needed for it to start dialing back its easy-money policies.

Pfizer (PFE) shares rose 3.2% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and raised its 2021 sales forecast for the Covid vaccine.

 

Data Docket: The Fed gave no clue about when it might start reducing its purchases of government bonds, even as it said the economic recovery is on track.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “when and where are the bounces for the oversold?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12022

 

Q2/21 Earnings and dates of releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Wednesday opened positive at 29/3, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day to 28/4, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive 31/1, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 2/31, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 6/26, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 7/25, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 11/21, 2 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 9/21, 4 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Wednesday closed flat with 450 shares traded after Tuesday closed down -$0.00 with 43 shares traded after Monday’s downside of -$0.06 to $1.65 with 406 shares traded after Friday and Thursday closing flat with 200 shares traded and last Wednesday closed +$0.01 to $1.71 with 200 shares traded.

  • WHY the “push/promote”; it is to exercise warrants adding more unregistered shares to the “outstanding” which is BSTG’s ONLY vehicle to raise money for operation continuation – they’re BROKE – so the only runway access is WHAT?

 

Pre-open Indications: 9 HITs <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); BUY:  bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.08), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.32), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$2.51), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.80), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.36), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.32), uniQure NV (QURE +$1.51), Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.01)> 1 MISS < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.51)>  

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Editas Medicine (EDIT), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) to name 5 of the 31 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Mesoblast (MESO) to name 1 of the 1 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 31-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 0 of 1-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 31-upside were +0.31% (BLUE) to +7.21% (BCLI) while the 1-downside ranges -1.42% (MESO);

 

Wednesday’s (10 of 31) incliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.51 after Tuesday’s -$1.52 and Monday’s -$4.30);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$4.68 after Tuesday’s -$2.87 and Monday’s -$3.18);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.80 after Tuesday’s -$1.63 and Monday’s -$3.71);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT =$2.51 after Tuesday’s -$0.58 and Monday’s -$0.99);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.32 after Tuesday’s +$1.79 after Monday’s -$3.05);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.01);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.38 after Tuesday’s +$1.22 and Monday’s +$1.00);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.38 after Tuesday’s -$0.76 and Monday’s -$1.64);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.36 after Tuesday’s -$1.05);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.34 after Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s -$1.43);

Wednesday’s (1 of 1) decliners:

  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.10);

Closing – 2 flat – ReNeuron (RENE.L), Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +2.81% and XBI closed up +3.50%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -1.05 points or -5.42% at 18.31

Upside volume:

  • Wednesday: 2 out of the 31-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Wednesday: 0 out of the 1-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 31-upside were +0.31% (BLUE) to +7.21% (BCLI) while the 1-downside ranges -1.42% (MESO);

 

July, first month of Q3/21:

Wednesday closed positive with 31 advancers, 1 decliner, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (7/26) closed negative with 12 advancers, 21 decliners,1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: The oversold got on the horse and rode … until next week as earnings i.e., LPS (loss-per-share) are released

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.

Keep an eye on “runways” … as quarterly earnings come out

We have seen the first release of earnings; but, will the remainder of Q2 earnings “suck pond water”!

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.