July 29, 2021 7:54am

Which share pricings will be retained: most or at least some of the upside as August and earning results beckon?

Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: WHAT is the status of the $404,221.00 PPP Loan? Referencing the loan agreement, “In the event that any portion of the PPP Loan is not forgiven in accordance with the PPP, following a six-month deferred period that ends November 4, 2020, the Company will be required to pay the Bank monthly payments of principal and interest to repay the PPP Loan in full on or before the maturity date.”

Pre-open indications: 5 SELLs: NTLA, QURE, CLLS, GBT, ALNY; 4 BUYs: BLUE, CRSP, EDIT, VYGR and 1 Maintain SELL: BSTG

My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session

Dow futures are UP +0.35% (+122 points), S&P futures are UP +0.12% (+ points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.23% (-44 points)

 

U.S. stock futures were mixed as the Nasdaq shrunk in Thursday’s pre-open

European stocks crawled higher

Asia-Pacific stocks advanced as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index continued to rebound sharply from a two-day slump earlier in the week.

 

Data Docket: Fed Chair Powell cautioned in a press conference that although the economy is making progress toward its goals, “it has a way to go before the central bank would actually adjust its easy policies”. <CNBC>

  • US GDP figures which are due later today.

 

Henry’omics:

I’m STILL in one of those “say good-bye” modes …

Indexes are on track to end the month higher, with the S&P up 2.4%, the Nasdaq +1.8% and the Dow 1.2% for July which ends Friday.

 

Wednesday’s evening’s recap: “the cell and gene therapy sector snapped, crackled and popped; reversing Tuesday’s curse and downslide” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12023

  • The Nasdaq closed UP +102.01 points (+0.70%);
  • The IBB closed up +2.81% and XBI closed up +3.50%;
  • Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 31-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 0 of 1-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) was down -1.05 points or -5.42% at 18.31;
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 31-upside were +0.31% (BLUE) to +7.21% (BCLI) while the 1-downside ranges -1.42% (MESO);

Week to date: 2 negative and 1 positive closes

Q3/21: July, 6 positive, 1 holiday and 13 negative closes

Q2/21:

  • June: 15 positive and 8 negative closes
  • May:  8 positive, 12 negative closes and 1 holiday
  • April: 11 negative and 10 positive closes

Q1/21:

  • March: 10 positive, 12 negative and 1 neutral closes
  • February: 9 positive, 10 negative closes and 1 holiday
  • January: 10 positive, 9 negative closes and 1 holiday

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles - Maintaining Sell – Could the share price stay up if it wasn’t being “pumped”?

Biostage (BSTG) closed flat again on Wednesday with 450 shares traded after on Tuesday’s down -$0.06 to $1.65 on Monday with 406 shares traded after being flat, Friday and Thursday with 200 shares traded (each session).

Question#1: WHAT is the end game or play-book for this company, it has not done ANYTHING to monetize their asset of an approved IND with NO clinical trial initiative … so WHERE and WHAT is the value proposition?

Question#2: Is it “alleged market manipulation” i.e., “promotional’ tactics that highlight how this equity is traded on the over-the-counter market?

Question#3: WHAT is the status of the $404,221.00 PPP Loan? Referencing the loan agreement, “In the event that any portion of the PPP Loan is not forgiven in accordance with the PPP, following a six-month deferred period that ends November 4, 2020, the Company will be required to pay the Bank monthly payments of principal and interest to repay the PPP Loan in full on or before the maturity date.”

  • False claims and arrests “should serve as a warning to others that the FBI and our law enforcement partners will aggressively go after bad actors like them who are utilizing the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to commit fraud”, said Joseph Bonavolonta, special agent in charge of the FBI’s Boston field office.

MINORITY PUBLIC shareholders are waiting for the specific time, watching and weighing responses to MAINTAIN their RIGHTS.

 

The morning’s indications:

Maintaining BUY:

bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$0.08 to $26.00 after Tuesday’s -$0.26 to $24.95, Monday’s +$0.20 to $26.18, Friday’s down -$1.00 to $25.98 and last Thursday’s -$0.51 to $26.98 with a positive +$018 or +0.69% aftermarket indication.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$2.32 to $119.75 after Tuesday’s -$1.79 to $117.43, Monday’s -$3.05 to $119.11 and last Friday’s -$2.50 to $122.27 and has a positive pre-open indication of +0.26 or +0.22%.

Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up +$2.51 to $41.78 after Tuesday’s -$0.58 to $39.27, Monday’s $39.85, Friday’s $40.84 and last Thursday’s $43.01 with a positive +$0.32 or +0.77% pre-market indication.

 

BUY:

Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$0.15 to $3.23, after Tuesday’s $3.08, Monday’s $3.16, Friday’s $3.12 and last Thursday’s $3.30 with a positive +$0.27 or +8.36% aftermarket indication.

 

SELL from BUY:

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$3.80 to $136.17 after Tuesday’s -$1.63 to $132.37, Monday’s $134.00, Friday’s $137.71 and last Thursday’s $147.88 with a negative -$0.17 or -0.12% pre-market indication

  • NTLA is projected to report earnings of -$0.61 per share, which would represent no growth from the prior-year quarter. Our most recent consensus estimate is calling for quarterly revenue of $12.03 million, down 26.03% from the year-ago period. NTLA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of -$2.56 per share and revenue of $36.32 million. These results would represent year-over-year changes of -6.67% and -37.37%.

SELL into Strength:

uniQure NV (QURE) closed up +$1.51 to $29.74 after Tuesday’s +$1.22 to $28.23, Monday’s +$1.00 and has a positive +$0.21 or +0.71% aftermarket indication after a net income earnings’ release i.e., strong beat.

Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed up +$0.71 to $13.70 after Tuesday’s $12.99, Monday’s +$13.17, Friday’s $13.75 and last Thursday $13.85 and has a negative -$0.20 or -1.46% aftermarket indication.

Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) closed up +$0.63 to $28.36 after Tuesday’s $27.73, Monday’s +$28.21, Friday’s $28.69 and last Thursday $29.44 and has a negative -$0.86 or -3.03% aftermarket indication.

 

Maintaining SELL:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$5.51 to $182.10 after Tuesday’s -$1.52 to $176.59, Monday’s $178.11, Friday’s $182.41 and last Thursday’s $181.81 with NO aftermarket indication

  • ALNY reports earnings on Tuesday, 8/3 and is expected to post a quarterly loss of -$1.57 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -0.6%. Revenues are expected to be $199.77 million, up 92.2% from the year-ago quarter. < Zacks Consensus Estimates>

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I used to think negativity was a state of mind. Now, having watched for long enough, I come to realize negativity can be a character trait … today (Thursday) and Friday’s big question is what will be sustained in share pricing?

Volatility is still front-and-center in the sector …

  • Wednesday, the IBB closed up +2.81% and XBI closed up +3.50%;
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -0.81% and the IBB closed down -1%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.89% and XBI closed down -1.81%
  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.88% and XBI closed down -1.14%
  • Last, Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.26% and XBI closed down -1.26%

The cell and gene therapy sector is still confusing as sentiment rages and fades, volume slithers, momentum is burped and usurped as fundamentals seem ignored.

uniQure NV (QURE) released net income earnings’ release. More Q2 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) release date: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) on 8/2; Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) release “earnings” on 8/3 followed by Vericel (VCEL), MiMedx (MDXG), AxoGen (AXGN) and Editas Medicine (EDIT) on Wednesday, 8/4, Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 8/5 and Athersys ATHX) on 8/9 – so far.

Remember: Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out.

Risk is no doubt increasing as we head into the troublesome August and September months

RMi’s daily report is a primer that may say little or a lot; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

My motto, never leave an investor uninformed about what I know!

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.