July 29, 2021 5:44pm

With low or negligible volume leaving sentiment staring into a corner

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 4 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers! 


The Dow closed UP +153.60 points (+0.44%); the S&P closed UP +18.51 points (+0.42%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +15.68 points (+0.11%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow and S&P rose to intraday records while the Nasdaq was up, it underperformed on Thursday as investors shrugged off economic data pointing slower-than-expected growth.

The major averages are on track to end July higher, with the S&P up 2.8%, the Nasdaq +1.9% and Dow 1.7%.

 

Data Docket: U.S. Q2 gross domestic product accelerated 6.5% on an annualized basis, considerably less than the 8.4% estimate.

  • A separate data point showed that 400,000 people filed initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended July 24 - nearly double the pre-pandemic norm and above an estimate of 385,000.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “key word, sustainability. Which share pricings will be retained: most or at least some of the upside as August and earning results beckon?” https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12025

 

Q2/21 Earnings and dates of releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Thursday opened positive at 21/11, 2 flats and 1 acquired, strayed negative at the mid-day to 11/20, 3 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 8/23, 3 flats and 1 acquired;

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Thursday closed flat with 1 share traded, Wednesday’s flat with 350 shares traded, Tuesday closed down -$0.00 with 43 shares traded, Monday’s downside of -$0.06 to $1.65 with 406 shares traded after Friday and Thursday closing flat with 200 shares traded.

  • WITHOUT the “intercession/push/promote”;  BSTG’s doesn't or barely trades. The issue is they’re BROKE – so the only runway access is WHAT?

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs <SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); BUY:  Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.12), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.58), Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.42), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.43), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.27)> and 4 MISS < bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.34), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.75), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.04), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.85)

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), AxoGen (AXGN), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Mesoblast (MESO), Athersys (ATHX), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)to name 8 of the 8 inclining of the 35

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Regenxbio (RGNX), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Ultragenyx (RARE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), uniQure NV (QURE) to name 5 of the 23 declining of the 35 covered

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 8-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 1 of 23-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.29% (EDIT) to +1.73% (MESO) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.15% (ALNY) to -4.26% (RGNX);

 

Thursday’s (8 of 8) incliners:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +41.22 after Wednesday’s +$4.68, Tuesday’s -$2.87 and Monday’s -$3.18);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.85 after Wednesday’s +$3.80, Tuesday’s -$1.63 and Monday’s -$3.71);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.41 after Wednesday’s +$1.34, Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s -$1.43);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.14);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.12 after Wednesday’s +$2.51, Tuesday’s -$0.58 and Monday’s -$0.99);
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.12 after Wednesday’s -$0.10);
  • Athersys (ATHX +$0.02);
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.01);

Thursday’s (10 of 23) decliners:

  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.45 after Wednesday’s +$1.38, Tuesday’s -$0.76 and Monday’s -$1.64);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.05 after Wednesday’s +$1.36 and Tuesday’s -$1.05);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.95 after Wednesday’s +$2.01);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.75 after Wednesday’s +$2.32, Tuesday’s +$1.79 after Monday’s -$3.05);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.58 after Wednesday’s +$1.38, Tuesday’s +$1.22 and Monday’s +$1.00);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.52);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.49);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.43);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.42);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.39);

Closing – 3 flat – Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Biostage (BSTG) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.61% and XBI closed down -1.66%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.61 points or -3.33% at 17.70

Upside volume:

  • Thursday: 0 out of the 8-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Thursday: 1 out of the 23-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 8-upside were +0.29% (EDIT) to +1.73% (MESO) while the 23-downside ranges from -0.15% (ALNY) to -4.26% (RGNX);

 

July, first month of Q3/21:

Thursday closed negative with 8 advancers, 23 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 31 advancers, 1 decliner, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 7 advancers, 25 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (7/26) closed negative with 12 advancers, 21 decliners,1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: As I stated yesterday, “The oversold got on the horse and rode” … right into the wall of worry as CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP) reports earnings and LPS (loss-per-share) results are to be released in bulk next week

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector. NO news has bake- in the decline of the sector.

Keep an eye on “runways” … as quarterly earnings come out

We have seen the second release of earnings (QURE and CRSP); but, will the remainder of Q2 earnings “suck pond water”?

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.