August 12, 2021 5:25pm

Below the surface, the oversold battles the overbought; there are just some things that can be counted upon to occur and they are what in these markets?

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs and 4 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

The Dow closed UP +14.88 points (+0.04%); the S&P closed UP +13.13 points (+0.30%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +51.13 points (+0.35%)

 

Henry’omics:

U.S. stocks edged higher on Thursday, pushing both the Dow and S&P 500 to fresh records.

 

Data Docket: The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims declined slightly last week as the U.S. labor market continues its recovery from last year’s recession. There were 375,000 claims last week, matching estimates. The prior reading came in at 385,000 claims

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Low volume and declining breadth infects the cell and gene therapy sector After last night’s close of a weak aftermarket, yet another Thursday’s indication?” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12045

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles – “notice how the shares trade with and without being “pumped/promoted?” https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12046

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Thursday opened negative at 14/17, 3 flats and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day to 21/12, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive 19/13, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume INCREASED with 1 of the 19-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 3 of 13-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.35% (VSTM) to +6.09% (MDXG) while the 13-downside -0.03% (RARE) to -5.80% (GBT);

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:

Net Income:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP);
  • uniQure NV (QURE);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) – today;

Net losses:

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE);
  • Verastem (VSTM)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)
  • MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) – today;
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) - today;
  • Vericel VCEL);
  • AxoGen (AXGN);
  • Fate therapeutics (FATE);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI);
  • Intellia therapeutics (NTLA);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE);
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR);
  • Athersys (ATHX);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX);
  • Precigen (PGEN);

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Thursday closed flat again with 50 shares traded after Wednesday with 50 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with 4 shares traded following Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.60 with 1060 shares traded, Friday closed up +$0.05 again with 709 shares traded, Thursday closed flat with 5 shares traded as last Wednesday closed flat with 50 shares traded.

Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote” – today is a typical example;

  • They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few days of a “runway” only to exercise outstanding warrants while increasing dramatically the outstanding shares?

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); BUY: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.70): SELL7into Strength: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +0.58), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.08)> 4 MISS <SELL: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.08), Mesoblast (MESO +$0.15), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.74), bluebird (BLUE -$0.23)>

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Vericel (VCEL), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) to name 5 of the 19 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) - again, Global Blood Therapeutics GBT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), uniQure NV (QURE), bluebird bio (BLUE) to name 5 of the 13 declining of the 35 covered

 

Thursday’s (10 of 19) incliners:

  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$3.00 after Wednesday’s -$4.25, Tuesday’s -$4.75 and Monday’s +$6.00);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.93 after Wednesday’s -$2.51);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.70 after Wednesday’s -$1.47, Tuesday’s -$2.66 and Monday’s +$1.08);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.40 after Wednesday’s -$0.36 and Tuesday’s -$2.66);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.10 after Wednesday’s -$0.64, Tuesday’s +$0.29 and Monday’s -$0.24);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.08 after Wednesday’s +$0.71, Tuesday’s -$0.88 and Monday’s +$2.27);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.96 after Wednesday’s +$3.30, Tuesday’s +$3.03 and Monday’s +$2.47);
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.72);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.72 after Wednesday’s +$3.84, Tuesday’s -$4.42 and Monday’s -$7.03);
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.39);

Thursday’s (10 of 13) decliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.93 after Wednesday’s -$4.99 Tuesday’s +$7.48 and Monday’s +$5.02);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.74 after Wednesday’s -$2.05 and Tuesday’s -$0.45);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.48 after Wednesday’s +$0.85, Tuesday’s -$5.04 and Monday’s +$0.31);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.43 after Wednesday’s +$0.11);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$.023 after Wednesday’s -$0.98, Tuesday’s +$1.88 and Monday’s -$6.87);
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.10);
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR -$0.10);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.09 after Wednesday’s +$0.17, Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s +$1.19);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.08 after Wednesday’s -$1.10, Tuesday’s -$0.75 and Monday’s +$0.51);
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.05 after Wednesday’s +$0.12);

Closing – 2 – Biostage (BSTG), Precigen (PGEN), and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.83% and XBI closed up +0.90%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.47 points or -2.93% at 15.59

Upside volume:

  • Thursday:  1 out of the 19-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Thursday: 3 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.35% (VSTM) to +6.09% (MDXG) while the 13-downside -0.03% (RARE) to -5.80% (GBT);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Thursday closed positive with 19 advancers, 13 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: after closing barely up, today repeats the alternating cycle …

Sector Q2 earnings (22) so far released have been weak (3 net incomes and 19 net losses) and as usual, investors are worried that the clinical advances are in-short supply.

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There have been jitters and negativity whispers about earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings yet, a rally surprised many today.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.