August 13, 2021 5:29pm

And closes deeply negative

Earnings: Biostage (BSTG)

Week in Review …

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 1 MISS

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

The Dow closed scarcely UP +15.53 points (+0.04%); the S&P closed just UP +7.17 points (+0.16%) while the Nasdaq closed barely UP +6.64 points (+0.04%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes hit fresh all-time highs on Friday capping-off modest gains for the week.

 

Data Docket: The University of Michigan’s sentiment read for August printed at just 70.2, the weakest since December 2011.

  • The consumer sentiment index had tumbled to 70.2 in its preliminary August reading. That is down more than 13% from July’s result of 81.2 and below the April 2020 mark of 71.8 that was lowest of the pandemic era. <CNBC>

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “TGIF, a winning market high week with a split 2 positive by 2 negative sector closes. The real question is: are there investors or hedge and electronic trading buying i.e., “flippers” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12048

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles – “notice how the shares trade with and without being “pumped/promoted?” https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12046

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Friday opened negative at 4/26, 4 flats and 1 acquired, remained negative at the mid-day to 11/19, 4 flat and 1 acquired, closing negative 6/24, 4 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened negative at 14/17, 3 flats and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day to 21/12, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing positive 19/13, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 10/21, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day to 9/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 13/16, 5 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened Tuesday opened negative at 15/17, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed further negative at the mid-day to 8/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 12/21, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opended neutral at 16/16, 2 flats and 1 acquired, flipped positive at the mid-day to 18/15, 1 flat and 1 acquired, closing barely positive 18/15, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 6-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 5 of 24-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 6-upside were +0.03% (RARE) to +1.31% (FIXX) while the 24-downside -0.32% (PSTI) to -6.37% (CRSP);

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:

Net Income:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP);
  • uniQure NV (QURE);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) – today;

Net losses:

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE);
  • Verastem (VSTM)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)
  • MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) – today;
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) - today;
  • Vericel VCEL);
  • AxoGen (AXGN);
  • Fate therapeutics (FATE);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI);
  • Intellia therapeutics (NTLA);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE);
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR);
  • Athersys (ATHX);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX);
  • Precigen (PGEN);
  • Biostage (BSTG) - today

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Friday closed flat again with 10 shares traded after Thursday closed flat with 50 shares traded, Wednesday with 50 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with 4 shares traded following Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.60 with 1060 shares traded and last Friday closed up +$0.05 again with 709 shares traded.

Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote” – today is a typical example;

  • They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few DAYS of a “runway” only to exercise outstanding warrants while increasing dramatically the outstanding shares?

Another Question: It’s funny how all this written repartee could have been AVOIDED by the Chinese management team just being HONEST with those who consulted/assisted them in times of IND filing peril; I lay the REAL blame on their “ADVISORS”?

Question: WHAT reflection or “shade’ will be placed upon their Scientific Advisory: Dr. Stephen F Badylak, DVM, PhD, MD; Dr. Joseph P. Vacanti, MD; Dr. Charles S. Cox, Jr and DR. Christine Finck, MD, FACS for the LACK of ANY clinical initiative?

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs <Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); SELL into Strength: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$8.63), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.74); SELL: bluebird (BLUE -$0.36), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.69), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.10)> 1 MISS <BUY: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.14)>

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) – again, Homology Medicine (FIXX), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Ultragenyx (RARE), Regenxbio (RGNX), Precigen (PGEN) to name 6 of the 6 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – another again, BioLife Solutions (BLFS) – post earnings and acquisition, Fate Therapeutics (FATE) – again, to name 5 of the 24 declining of the 35 covered

 

Friday’s (6 of 6) incliners:

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.37 after Thursday’s +$1.10, Wednesday’s -$0.64, Tuesday’s +$0.29 and Monday’s -$0.24);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.09);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.06);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.03);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.02 after Thursday’s -$0.09, Wednesday’s +$0.17, Tuesday’s -$1.17 and Monday’s +$1.19);
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.02);

Friday’s (10 of 24) decliners:

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$8.63 after Thursday’s +$1.70, Wednesday’s -$1.47, Tuesday’s -$2.66 and Monday’s +$1.08);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$4.89 after Thursday’s +$0.72, Wednesday’s +$3.84, Tuesday’s -$4.42 and Monday’s -$7.03);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.83 after Thursday’s -$1.93, Wednesday’s -$4.99 Tuesday’s +$7.48 and Monday’s +$5.02);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.35 after Thursday’s -$1.48, Wednesday’s +$0.85, Tuesday’s -$5.04 and Monday’s +$0.31);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.74 after Thursday’s +$1.93 and Wednesday’s -$2.51);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.69 after Thursday’s +$0.96, Wednesday’s +$3.30, Tuesday’s +$3.03 and Monday’s +$2.47);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.81 after Thursday’s +$1.08, Wednesday’s +$0.71, Tuesday’s -$0.88 and Monday’s +$2.27);
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.68 after Thursday’s +$1.40, Wednesday’s -$0.36 and Tuesday’s -$2.66);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.55 after Thursday’s -$1.74, Wednesday’s -$2.05 and Tuesday’s -$0.45);
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.53 after Thursday’s +$0.72);

Closing – 4 – Biostage (BSTG), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR) and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.16% and XBI closed down -1.71%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed up +0.83% and XBI closed up +0.90%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -2.99% and XBI closed down -0.65%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -1.81% and XBI closed down -0.82%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +2.38% and XBI closed up +0.19%

 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.14 points or -0.90% at 15.45
  • Thursday was down -0.47 points or -2.93% at 15.59
  • Wednesday was down -0.73. points or -4.35% at 16.06
  • Tuesday was up +0.07 points or +0.42% at 16.79
  • Monday was up +0.57 points or +3.53% at 16.72

 

Upside volume:

  • Friday:  1 out of the 6-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday:  1 out of the 19-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday:  4 out of the -upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday:  6 out of the 12-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 8 out of the 18-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Downside volume:

  • Friday: 5 out of the 24-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday: 3 out of the 13-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday: 4 out of the 16-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday: 4 out of the 21-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 1 out of the 15-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

 

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 6-upside were +0.03% (RARE) to +1.31% (FIXX) while the 24-downside -0.32% (PSTI) to -6.37% (CRSP);
  • Thursday’s percentage (%) of the 19-upside were +0.35% (VSTM) to +6.09% (MDXG) while the 13-downside -0.03% (RARE) to -5.80% (GBT);
  • Wednesday’s percentage (%) of the 13-upside were +0.10% (SGMO) to +5.40% (EDIT) while the 16-downside -0.66% (MESO) to -7.76% (CLLS);
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 12-upside were +0.03% (QURE) to +10.35% (BLUE) while the 21-downside -0.33% (MDXG) to -11.91% (AXGN);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 18-upside were +0.32% (FATE) to +6.04% (VYGR) while the 15-downside ranges from -0.53% (AGTC) to -27.45% (BLUE);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Friday closed negative with 6 advancers, 24 decliners, 4 flats and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 19 advancers, 13 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 13 advancers, 16 decliners, 5 flats and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 21 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (8/9) closed positive with 18 advancers, 15 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed positive with 18 advancers, 16 decliners and 1 acquired

Thursday closed positive with 29 advancers, 1 decliner, 4 flats and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 12 advancers, 19 decliners, 3 flats and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 10 advancers, 233 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (8/2) closed positive with 21 advancers, 13 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: the alternating cycle of downside risk

Sector Q2 earnings (26) so far released have been weak (3 net incomes and 23 net losses) and as usual, investors are worried that the clinical advances are in-short supply.

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There have been jitters and negativity whispers about earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings yet, a rally surprised many today.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.