August 16, 2021 4:55pm

Everything is tradeable but, what do investors want to own going forward? My concern is wobbling sentiment post earnings …

Pre-open indications: 1 HIT

Earnings: Solid Biosciences (SLDB)

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

The Dow closed scarcely UP +110.02 points (+0.31%); the S&P closed UP +11.71 points (+0.26%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN – 29.14 points (-0.20%)

 

Henry’omics:

We are stuck in the dog days of August, with low volume and drifting volatility with Q/21 earnings season mostly behind us

This is also a “witching” week of option expiration as it notched fresh record closes on Monday.

Historically, military conflict doesn’t always have an impact on stocks, and a war’s influence; however, its about investors’ context of the continued weakness and deflection of this elected officials in “our” government – MY belief!

But don’t be surprised if the market’s reaction to the possibility of military tensions is counterintuitive (i.e., contrary to intuition or to common-sense expectation), as Ben Carlson, portfolio manager at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC, has written in the past about the market’s sometimes odd reaction to war. <MarketWatch>

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “a summer Monday. Let’s ease into the week after many record closes while enduring a foreign military disaster in Afghanistan.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12050

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles – “notice how the shares trade with and without being “pumped/promoted?” https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12046

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Monday opened negative at 4/27, 3 flats and 1 acquired, remained negative at the mid-day to 8/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 5/28, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 2 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.12% (ALNY) to +3.42% (VCEL) while the 28-downside ranges from -0.48% (KDNY) to -13.75% (BSTG);

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542 … to date:

  • Net Income: 3 and Net losses: 23

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Monday closed down -$0.22 to $1.38 with 135 shares traded after Friday closed flat again with 10 shares traded, Thursday closed flat with 50 shares traded, Wednesday with 50 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with 4 shares traded following last Monday closed down -$0.05 to $1.60 with 1060 shares traded.

Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote” – today is just another typical example;

  • They’re BROKE – so WHY are they “pumping” to buy a few DAYS of a “runway” only to exercise outstanding warrants while increasing dramatically the outstanding shares?
  • Read the recently issues 10-Q and 8-K which will magnify the incompetence of the current management team and the BOD and “advisors”.

 

Pre-open Indications: 1 HIT <Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.22)>

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Vericel (VCEL), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Cellectis SA (CLLS) to name 5 of the 5 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - again, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) - again, Editas medicine (EDIT), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) to name 5 of the 28 declining of the 35 covered

 

Monday’s (5 of 5) incliners:

  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.61 after Friday -$0.68);
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.92 after Friday -$3.35);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.33 after Friday -$2.74);
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.24);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.07);

Monday’s (10 of 28) decliners:

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$4.74 after Friday +$0.03);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.21 after Friday -$8.63);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.74 after Friday -$4.89);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$2.66 after Friday -$2.69);
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.05 after Friday +$0.37);
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.01 after Friday -$0.81);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.83 after Friday -$0.55);
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.61);
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.53 after Friday +$0.09);
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGM) -$0.52);

Closing – 1 – ReNeuron (RENE.L), and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.10% and XBI closed down -1.62%
  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.16% and XBI closed down -1.71%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.86 points or +5.27% at 16.31
  • Friday was down -0.14 points or -0.90% at 15.45

Upside volume:

  • Monday: 2 out of the 5-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday:  1 out of the 6-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Monday: 2 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Friday: 5 out of the 24-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.12% (ALNY) to +3.42% (VCEL) while the 28-downside ranges from -0.48% (KDNY) to -13.75% (BSTG);
  • Friday’s percentage (%) of the 6-upside were +0.03% (RARE) to +1.31% (FIXX) while the 24-downside -0.32% (PSTI) to -6.37% (CRSP);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Monday (8/16) closed negative with 5 advancers, 28 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 6 advancers, 24 decliners, 4 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: the alternating cycle of downside risk

Sector Q2 earnings (26) so far released have been weak (3 net incomes and 23 net losses) and as usual, investors are worried that the clinical advances are in-short supply.

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There have been jitters and negativity whispers about earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings yet, a rally surprised many today.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.