August 17, 2021 4:56pm

Indexes declined as macro factors miss estimates and Biden’s embarrassing retreat from Afghanistan could imperil legislative initiatives slowing recovery while the administration is refocusing on drug pricing reform?

Pre-open indications: 1 MISS and 5 HITs

My comments try to distinguish the temporary from real pricing digression or progress.

Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?


The Dow closed DOWN -282.12 points (-0.79%); the S&P closed DOWN -31.63 points (-0.71%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -137.58 points (-0.93%)

 

Henry’omics:

U.S. stock indexes fell Tuesday as July retail sales declined and many Americans are angry about President Biden’s hasty Afghanistan betrayal policy as his popularity falls with very low approval.

Both major indexes pared losses from their earlier lows. The Nasdaq led on the downside with a loss of over 130 points.

Retail sales declined 1.1% in July, a steeper drop than the 0.3% dip expected by economists surveyed. The Census Bureau revised June’s reading to a 0.7% jump.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “buying weakness is still early and speculative yet, timing is everything. Remember, Friday is an option’s expiration “witching” session.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12052

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles – “notice how the shares trade with and without being “pumped/promoted?” https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12046

 

Q2/21 Earnings releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/11542  … to date:

  • Net Income: 3 and Net losses: 23

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines:

  • Tuesday opened negative at 4/29, 1 flat and 1 acquired, remained negative at the mid-day to 5/26, 3 flats and 1 acquired, closing positive 21/12, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 4/27, 3 flats and 1 acquired, remained negative at the mid-day to 8/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, closing negative 6/27, 1 flat and 1 acquired;

 

Key Metrics:

  • Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with very LOW volume of 3 of 12-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.34% (IONS) to +4.05% (ADVM) while the 12-downside -0.83% (CLBS) to -7.56% (KDNY);

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: Tuesday closed flat with 1 share traded after Monday closed down -$0.22 to $1.38 with 135 shares traded, Friday closed flat again with 10 shares traded, Thursday closed flat with 50 shares traded, Wednesday with 50 shares traded and last Tuesday closed flat with 4 shares traded.

  • Notice, how the share trades without and with the “push/promote” – today is just another typical example;
  • Read the recently issues 10-Q and 8-K which will magnify the “incompetence” of the current management team, the BOD and their “advisors”.

 

Pre-open Indications: 5 HITs <Maintaining SELL: Biostage (BSTG -$0.00); BUY: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.09), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.47); SELL into Strength: Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.10), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.46)> 1 MISS < BUY: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.00)>

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) again, Vericel (VCEL) - again, Editas Medicine (EDIT), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) to name 5 of the 21 inclining of the 35 covered

Hammered in today’s market:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – another again, BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Chinook therapeutics (KDNY), Cellectis SA (CLLS) to name 5 of the 12 declining of the 35 covered

 

Tuesday’s (10 of 21) incliners:

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.47 after Monday’s +$0.24.);
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.13 after Monday’s +$1.61);
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.10 after Monday’s -$2.66);
  • ReNeuron (RENE.L +$1.00 after Monday’s flat);
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.96 after Monday’s -$0.83);
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.80 after Monday’s -$2.74);
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.70 after Monday’s -$4.74);
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.47 after Monday’s -$0.61);
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.46);
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.42);

Tuesday’s (12 of 12) decliners:

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$3.19 after Monday’s +$0.92);
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.00 after Monday’s -$4.21);
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.34 after Monday’s +$0.33);
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.94);
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.26 after Monday’s +$0.07);
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.24);
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.24);
  • Pluristem (PSTI -$0.22);
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.10);
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.08);
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.05);
  • Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS -$0.01);

Closing – 1 – Biostage (BSTG), and 1 -Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB closed up +1.89% and XBI closed up +1.57%
  • Monday, the IBB closed down -1.10% and XBI closed down -1.62%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +1.79 points or +11.110% at 17.91
  • Monday was up +0.86 points or +5.27% at 16.31

Upside volume:

  • Tuesday:  1 out of the 21-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 5-upside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume:

  • Tuesday: 3 out of the 12-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday: 2 out of the 28-downside had higher than the 3-month average volume;

Percentage (%) movement/range statistics: price versus percentage …

  • Tuesday’s percentage (%) of the 21-upside were +0.34% (IONS) to +4.05% (ADVM) while the 12-downside -0.83% (CLBS) to -7.56% (KDNY);
  • Monday’s percentage (%) of the 5-upside were +0.12% (ALNY) to +3.42% (VCEL) while the 28-downside ranges from -0.48% (KDNY) to -13.75% (BSTG);

 

August, the second month of Q3/21:

Tuesday closed positive with 21 advancers, 12 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (8/16) closed negative with 5 advancers, 28 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: A trip and a fall but, the sector was able to get up and stabilize share pricing with the alternating cycle of being oversold is the ability to be overbought after multiple sessions.

Sector Q2 earnings (26) contributed to the declining slope of many equities; so far released have been weak (3 net incomes and 23 net losses) and as usual, investors are worried that the clinical advances are in-short supply.

As I had stated, “the cell and gene therapy sector will be driven driven by two things: 1) earnings, 2) news and 3) multiples.”

There have been jitters and negativity whispers about earnings releases’ and I think some underlying worries re sector share pricings yet, a rally surprised many today.

A tool that hasn’t resonated … guidance is one factor of the sector.

I am keeping an eye on “runways” … as 2024 seems to be timing factor for most.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.