Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: waiting for the earnings ramp-up

November 1, 2021 4:54pm

They will be the key to the sector’s “behavior” this month after a disastrous October

Pre-open indication results: 4 HITs and 1 MISS

My version of the session’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what did happen after the opening, mid-day and to the close

An objective, fact and numbers-based narrative – check the numbers!

The Dow closed UP +94.28 points (+0.26%); the S&P closed UP +8.29 points (+0.18%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +97.53 points (+0.63%)

Henry’omics:

Indexes were basically flat on the first trading day of November after markets emerged from the historically rough seasonal period.

The small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 rallied 2.6%, its best day since August 27.

Note: Biostage (BSTG) was flat again $0.00 on Monday with 80 shares traded to $3.10 after Friday’s 162 shares traded, Thursday’s 95 shares traded and last Wednesday’s move from -$0.40 with 216 shares traded until the “pump” was turned-on with 1,676 shares traded to close +$0.10 – where is the SEC?

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

Monday opened positive at 31/2, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed positive at the mid-day at 30/1, 3 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a positive close of 29/3, 2 flats and 1 acquired;
Friday opened negative at 14/16, 4 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 11/19, 4 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 13/19, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “watch sector portfolio’s six, after a disastrous sector October. Earnings dominate the first week as LPS’ (loss-per-share) releases set the tone.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12162

Pre-open indication results: 4 Hit: <SELL: Biostage (BSTG $0.00); BUY: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.80); Maintaining SELL into Strength: BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.91), Intellia therapeutics (NTLA +$3.36) and 1 MISS < uniQure NV (QURE +$1.23)

Key Metric - volume:

Sector volume increased with 8 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 29):

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.80 after Friday’s -$2.58),
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.13 after Friday’s -$2.69),
Fate Therapeutics (FATE+$3.96 after Friday’s -$2.18),
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.53 after Friday’s -$3.13),
Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$2.42 after Friday’s +$0.19),
Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.06 after Friday’s -$0.85),
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.01 after Friday’s -$0.80),
Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.89 after Friday’s -$1.43),
uniQure NV (QURE +$1.23),
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.13 after Friday’s +$0.67),

Hammered in today’s market (3 of 3):

Vericel (VCEL -$0.18 after Friday’s -$5.05),
MiMedx (MDXG -$0.04 after Friday’s +$0.02),
Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.02 after Friday’s +$0.175),

Closing Flat:

2 –Biostage (BSTG), ReNeuron (RENE.L) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Monday, the IBB closed up +1.27% and XBI closed up +3.79%
Friday, the IBB closed down -0.37% and XBI closed down -1.08%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

Monday was up +0.15 points or +0.92% at 16.41
Friday was down -0,27 points or -1.63% at 16.26

November, the second month of Q4/21:

Monday (11/1) closed positive with 29 incliners, 3 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

The BOTTOM LINE: Reiterating, “Don't let earnings week take advantage of you” … because it will!

We are seeing to date, two net losses <uniQure (QURE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)> earning’s releases that initiated Q3 earnings reporting season and beginning the tug-of-war between share pricing that is softer than usual and the usual LPS (loss-per-share) to be less than estimates and expectations.

The stem, cell and gene therapy earnings with Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Regenxbio (RGNX) on 11/2, Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) on 11/4, Cellectis SA (CLLS) on 11/5, Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/8, Vericel (VCEL) on 11/9, Athersys (ATHX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) coming 11/15 (to date).

Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.