November 2, 2021 7:45am

In earnings from the sector as the downside market risks take its toll

Earnings: MiMedx (MDXG), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) and Regenxbio (RGNX)

News: uniQure N.V. (QURE) announced the positive recommendation by its independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) following a review of safety data from the four patient procedures in the higher-dose cohort of the P1/2 clinical trial of AMT-130 for the treatment of Huntington’s disease.

Pre-open indications: 4 SELLs with 1 Pump (or No Promote)

What I provide is an intelligence daily. RMi outlines a daily bell weather of “indications” about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.

Dow futures are UP +0.03% (+9 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.02% (-1 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.17% (-28 point)

 

Stock futures were mixed, lower and/or down in early morning trading on Tuesday,

European stocks were also mixed,

Asia-Pacific stocks were mixed, with South Korea leading gains in the region as Australia’s central bank announced its decision to keep its cash rate target unchanged while Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese real estate firms dropped amid renewed fears.

 

Economic data docket: The Fed’s highly-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting kicks off on Tuesday. It is widely expected to lead to the central bank announcing it will begin to wind down its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases and end the program entirely by the middle of 2022.

 

Henry’omics:

All three U.S. stock indexes hit new highs and closed at records during Monday’s regular session.

Time to leave this party and go early … I’m on my way!

The November FOMC meeting, October payrolls ... and seven (7) sector earnings sets up LPS (loss-per-share) catalysts which don’t enhance any “heavy-lifting” this week in sector trading

 

Note: Pfizer (PFE) shares were up 1.8% in premarket trading after the drug maker’s Q3 profit topped expectations. PFE also raised the full-year sales forecast for its COVID-19 vaccine by 7.5% to $36 billion, as it signs deals with countries for booster doses and receives clearances for using its shots in broader age groups.

 

If you didn’t remember what happen at Monday night’s close and the quarter’s “number’s” impact, you won’t be prepared for today’s session:

Q4: November, 1 positive close

  • October, 8 positive and 13 negative closes

Q3/21:

  • September, 1 holiday, 10 positive and 10 negative close
  • August - 12 positive and 10 negative close
  • July: 6 positives, 1 holiday and 15 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide an idea and context:

SELL with a Pump or no promote:

Biostage (BSTG) closed flat again with 80 shares traded following Friday’s flat with 95 shares traded, Wednesday’s +$0.10 after being down -$0.40 with 216 shares traded when suddenly 1,676 shares traded following last Tuesday’s -$0.05 with 1,216 shares traded.

  • What’s there to invest in – the “Sword of Damocles” hanging over its recent insurance company rejection of legal expense/costs of a terminal death suit against the company?
  • For a company with NO clinical trial, an a one (1) and a half year approved IND, four (4) employees and NO CRO <clinical research organization> initiation.

Probabilities versus share pricing moves:

SELL:

Verastem (VSTM) closed up +$0.10 to $2.70 after Friday’s $2.60 and Thursday’s $2.67, Wednesday’s $2.59 and last Tuesday’s $2.61 with a negative -$0.07 or -2.59% aftermarket indication.

 

Maintaining SELL into Strength:

Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$3.53 to $136.51 following Friday’s -$3.13 to $132.98 with a -$0.18 or -0.13% pre-open indication. Earnings release on Thursday, 11/4.

ReNeuron (RENE.L) closed flat at $112.50 and has a negative -$4.95 or -4.40% pre-open indication.

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$2.01 to $42.37 and has a negative -$0.47 or -1.11% aftermarket indication. The most accurate estimate for SAGE’s current quarter is currently at a loss of $1.67 per share for SAGE, compared to a broader Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.84 per share.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: like I wrote, “Time to leave this party and go early … I’m on my way!”

I’ve been circling the sector portfolio for days as earnings and market fluctuations pronounced Monday’s high after many down sessions (9 out of 13 sessions) which project a “hurt” to sector equities.

Reiterating, “Don't let earnings week take advantage of you” … because it will!

It's highly risky to buy a stock just before earnings, and investors may want to take whole or partial profits on holdings with tiny gains.

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

The stem, cell and gene therapy earnings with Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Regenxbio (RGNX) on 11/2, Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS) on 11/4, Cellectis SA (CLLS) on 11/5, Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/8, Vericel (VCEL) on 11/9, Athersys (ATHX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) coming 11/15 (to date).

RMi’s daily report is a primer that may say little or a lot; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.