November 12, 2021 8:26pm

I used to think negativity was a state of mind. Now, having watched for long enough, I come to realize negativity can be a character trait.

Pre-open indication results: 5 HITs, 3 MISS

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing. Who else is tracking a broad representative index of cell and gene therapy equities – the facts are supported by real numbers?

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public markets investor to a journalist and pundit; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your questioning

Week in review … <read more>

The Dow closed UP +179.08 points (+0.50%); the S&P closed UP +33.58 points (+0.72%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +156.68 points (+1%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes moved higher Friday, but the stem, cell and gene therapy sector continued into a seven (7) session downslide.

The major averages closed the week lower after the hottest inflation report in 30 years; the Dow fell -0.6%, the S&P 500 dipped -0.3% and the Nasdaq was down -0.7% on the week.

 

Economic Data Docket: Consumer sentiment in early November dropped to its lowest level in a decade, the University of Michigan reported Friday. Many survey respondents cited inflation concerns, according to the report. Workers left their jobs in record numbers in September with 4.43 million people quitting, the Labor Department reported Friday. The exodus occurred as the U.S. had 10.44 million employment openings that month, according to the report. <CNBC>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what’s happening …

  • Friday opened positive at 16/15, 3 flats and 1 acquired, flipped negative at the mid-day at 10/23, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 12/18, 4 flats and 1 acquired;
  • Thursday opened positive at 21/10, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed barely positive at the mid-day at 17/116, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 15/18, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Wednesday opened negative at 11/22, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 8/25, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 acquired;
  • Tuesday opened negative at 13/20, 1 flat and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 8/24, 2 flats and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 9/24, 1 flat and 1 acquired;
  • Monday opened negative at 12/19, 3 flats and 1 acquired, stayed negative at the mid-day at 15/18, 3 flats, 1 flat and 1 acquired, ending with a negative close of 16/17, 2 flats and 1 acquired;

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “another quick exit Friday after six (6) negative closes? End this week, as a weak aftermarket again defies expectation.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12181

 

Pre-open indication results: 5 HITs: < Biostage (BSTG +$0.00); Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.73), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.77); SELL Into Strength:  Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.38), Verastem (VSTM +$0.2) – profiting> and 3 MISS < BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.15), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.30), Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.15),

 

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: closed flat Friday with 0 shares traded after Thursday’s -$0.22 with 2005 shares traded, Wednesday’s +$0.18 after being “pumped/promoted” with 2,006 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.03 with 3,304 shares traded following Monday’s +$0.07 with 7,0882 shares traded and last Friday’s flat $0.00 at $2.60 with 9,003 shares traded. Where is the SEC and Nasdaq monitoring?

 

Key Metric - volume

Sector volume HIGH with 2 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 18-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

Downside volume stand-out:

  • Athersys (ATHX -$0.13 with 3.721 m shares traded

Upside volume stand-out:

  • Verastem (VSTM +$0.21 with 3.973 m shares traded

 

There are clear winners and losers

Jumping with share pricing momentum (12 of 12):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.73 after Thursday’s +$3.62, Wednesday’s -$11.58, Tuesday’s +$2.29 and Monday’s +$0.59),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.01),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.77 after Thursday’s -$0.62, Wednesday’s -$0.87 after Tuesday’s -$1.94),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.38),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.24 after Thursday’s +$0.20),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.22 after Thursday’s -$0.35),
  • Verastem (VSTM +$0.21 after Thursday’s +$0.25),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.20 after Thursday’s +$0.31, Wednesday’s -$1.36, Tuesday’s -$1.05 and Monday’s -$0.73),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.20 after Thursday’s +$0.08),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.11),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.11),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.08),

Hammered in today’s market (10 of 18):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.18 after Thursday’s -$3.43, Wednesday’s -$7.67, Tuesday’s -$4.05 and Monday’s +$0.72),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$2.15 after Thursday’s -$0.85, Wednesday’s -$3.90 after Tuesday’s +$0.28 and Monday’s -$0.59),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.33 after Thursday’s +$1.74),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.87 after Thursday’s +$0.37),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.83 after Thursday’s -$0.62, Wednesday’s -$0.85, Wednesday’s -$0.85 and Tuesday’s -$0.96),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.78 after Thursday’s +$0.65),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.64 after Thursday’s -$0.09, Wednesday’s -$4.51, Tuesday’s +$0.23 and Monday’s +$1.77),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.55 after Thursday’s -$0.26),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.30 after Thursday’s +$0.35 and Wednesday’s -$2.67),

Closing Flat:

  • 4 – Biostage (BSTG), ReNeuron (RENE.L), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), bluebird bio (BLUE) and 1 - Stemline Therapeutics (STML) – acquired

 

Stats:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB closed up +0.38% and XBI closed up +0.18%
  • Thursday, the IBB closed down -0.06% and XBI closed up +0.12%
  • Wednesday, the IBB closed down -1.29% and XBI closed down -1.90%
  • Tuesday, the IBB closed down -1.34% and XBI closed down -1.44%
  • Monday, the IBB closed up +0.44% and XBI closed down -0.62%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -1.37 points or -7.76% at 16.29
  • Thursday was down -1.07 points or -5.71% at 17.66
  • Wednesday was up +0.95 points or +5.34% at 18.73
  • Tuesday was up +0.56 points or +3.25% at 17.78
  • Monday was up +0.77 points or +4.73% at 17.25

 

 

November, the second month of Q4/21:

Friday closed negative with 12 incliners, 18 decliners, 4 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 15 incliners, 18 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliners, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed negative with 9 incliners, 24 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Monday (11/8) closed negative with 16 incliners, 17 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Friday closed negative with 11 incliners, 19 decliners, 4 flat and 1 acquired

Thursday closed negative with 16 incliners, 17 decliners, 1 flat and 1 acquired

Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 acquired

Tuesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 8 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

Monday (11/1) closed positive with 29 incliners, 3 decliners, 2 flats and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  In a week of whipsaw and negative action in yet, another miss of a sector close …

It's not surprising that after what has been a bad run of negative closes – seven (7) is an unusual run for the sector undergoing an earnings proctology examination.

As I stated in this morning’s post, “sector weakness should/could unfold some of the oversold”.

But and a BIG but, are we now so oversold, it is time to play “pick-up-sector stocks” – good bottoms are good to look at and consider!

Expected Q3 earnings …

We are seeing to date,

  • One (1) net income – Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM),
  • Twenty-one (21) net losses to date <uniQure (QURE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Regenxbio (RGNX), Sage Therapeutics SAGE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Caladrius Biosciences (CLBS), AxoGen (AXGN), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Verastem (VSTM), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO),  Cellectis SA (CLLS), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC),  Vericel (VCEL) and today’s … BioLife Solutions (BLFS)>
  • Q3 earnings reporting season began the tug-of-war between share pricing that is softer than usual and the usual LPS (loss-per-share) to be less than estimates and expectations.

The stem, cell and gene therapy earnings remaining with BioLife Solutions BLFS) on 11/11 followed by Athersys (ATHX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) coming 11/15 (to date).

Reiterating, “the stem, cell and gene therapy sector is still seen as vulnerable to extreme low volume moves in either direction, as share pricing risk stimulates their susceptibility!”

I’m STILL a “beware or the cautious man” whose focus has always been “warning analysis” … earnings’ season is NOT over … my advice, trim and skim any new highs if one can!”

WHY do I keep analyzing Biostage (BSTG): When one sees an inextricable wrong and morally repulsive scenario; it takes courage, resolve and patience to stay the course of asking the questions without response!

Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations?  What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.

 

Week in Review …

Monday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: "Skip to My (The) Lou" after a record close, a sector decline, more LPS (loss-per-share) earnings this week … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12172

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: the sector faded even as small-cap stocks led on the upside and held near their highs … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12173

 

Tuesday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: a sector retreat is not a defeat, it will just move directionally … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12175

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: sector takes yet another dive … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12176

 

Wednesday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: sector weakness should/could unfold some of the oversold … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12177

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: yet another pull-back that cut to the bone as the sector bleeds-out … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12178

 

Thursday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: a weak aftermarket underwhelms expectation … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12179

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: from an extreme downside to a barely downslide … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12180

 

Friday

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: another quick exit Friday after six (6) negative closes? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12181

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.