May 10, 2022 4:45pm
Still not convinced the “bottom” is in
Hold-on (to the railing) as our portfolios weather these volatile sessions as an ordinary practice
Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 1 MISS
Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -85.55 points (-0.27%); the S&P closed UP +9.82 points (+0.25%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +114.42 points (+0.98%)
Indexes fluctuated Tuesday fighting to recover from three (3) days of heavy selling.
The Nasdaq rebounded after trading in the negative for much of the session breaking its biggest three-day (3) losing streak since March 2020
“We’re in a market where you just can’t hold on to any rallies,” Paul Hickey of Bespoke Investment Group on Tuesday. It’s not surprising given the overall trends we’ve seen over the last several days and I think we’re just going to see more of this going forward.” <CNBC>
52-week and all-time lows:
- bluebird bio (BLUE) at $3.42,
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) at $1.01,
- Mesoblast (MESO) at $3.32,
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) at $3.62,
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) at $40.71,
- Editas Medicine (EDIT) at $10.98,
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $0.74,
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB) at $0.49,
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE) at $21.62,
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) at $32.57,
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “sector legs could be trying to stretch after tsunami of missed earnings and revenue expectations to move beyond being stuck in this “red” sector’s correction. Put a bounce in finding the bottom in equities to define missed value beyond being just oversold. Motivating force behind sector and market is still fear” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12429
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Tuesday opened positive at 33 up/1 downs and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day at 26/7 and 2 flats, ending with a positive close of 29/5 and 1 flat
- Monday opened negative at 3 up/31 downs and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day at 3/32, ending with a negative close of 1/34.
Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.00), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.62), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.08), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.15), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.95), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.17)> 1 MISS < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.58)>
Key Metrics: review the disparities between daily sessions
- Tuesday - Sector volume was HIGH with 21 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday - Sector volume was FLAT with 1 of the 1-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGH volume of 24 of 34-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.67% and the XBI was up +5.08%
- Monday, the IBB was down -5.20% and the XBI was down -8.26%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -1.79 points or -5.15% at 32.96
- Monday was up +4.49 points or +14.87% at 34.68
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 29):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.66 after Monday’s -$12.23),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.08 after Monday’s -$4.78),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.95 after Monday’s -$6.12),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.58),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.49 after Monday’s -$2.39),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.44 after Monday’s -$4.59),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.76 after Monday’s -$5.74),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.40 after Monday’s -$1.81),
- Chinook therapeutics (KDNY +$1.28),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.13 after Monday’s -$2.22),
Hammered in today’s market (5 of 5):
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.0434),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.04),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0229),
- Mesoblast MESO -$0.02),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.01 after Monday’s +$0.29),
- Biostage (BSTG)
- Tuesday closed positive with 29 incliner, 5 decliners and 1 flat
- Monday closed negative with 1 incliner and 34 decliners
The BOTTOM LINE: A bounce versus a trounce, there was a potential of a loss again that was overcome by algorithms.
Thus algorithms “Hail Mary” put the cell and gene therapy sector back in the “green”.
Weakness has also been driven by earnings’ reporting, the lack of sentiment, conviction and confidence enhanced by volatility.
As I continue, “State the obvious, investors are NOT in control of daily market driven sector appreciation or downward dives.”
Q1/22 earnings season is half completed (24 of 35 reported) having reported LPS (loss-per-share) results so far MISSING estimates and revenues.
I have yet to see one (1) net income!
Earnings’ season is upon us with: Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 5/16 and Cellectis SA (CLLS) on 5/13, and Biostage (BSTG) with a release on 5/16.
Keep watching and reading focused on stem, cell and gene therapy equities that are barely showing relative strength.
In this market correction, watchlists can be like sand castles, crumbling under fresh waves of selling. But keep working on those sand castles. When the sector turns, you'll be ready to take advantage.
I maintain MY concerns of a contrarian view and a right-on actuality of “our” universe” as represented by an outlook of anxiety, striking a more cautious tone on cell and gene therapy stocks for the short and near-term.
I try to keep it simple … I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. We haven't had that big sell off yet where we have huge volumes.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Who is defining the metrics for investors and keeping you notified of the sector and market fluctuations? What I provide is a trusted source of share pricing intelligence – it’s more than opinion, I deal in the facts and numbers that back them up.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.