RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: sector boomed today, what’s sustainable and for how long?

June 21, 2022 4:54pm

Three (3) positive closes out of the last five (5) sessions

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs, 2 MISS – made profit in selling into strength

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

It’s a quick read to understand the ebb and flow of the session in one site

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

The Dow closed UP +641.47 points (+2.15%); the S&P closed UP +89.95 points (+2.45%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +270.95 points (+2.51%)

Henry’omics:

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as markets reopened after the Juneteenth holiday weekend.

Many investors fear that a rebound amid growing fears of a recession may be short-lived, though others expect that equities may be oversold after more accurately pricing in inflationary pressures. <CNBC>

The major averages suffered their 10th losing week in 11 last week on fears that the central bank will hike rates aggressively to tame inflation at the risk of causing an economic downturn.

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “share pricing plays a game of pick-up ticks. We are getting closer to month and quarter’s end; an earning’s recession is approaching” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12480

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

• Tuesday opened positive at 31 up/ 3 downs and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day to 28/6 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 26/7 and 2 flats.
• Monday was a market holiday
• Friday opened positive at 30 up/ 3 down and 2 flats, stayed positive at the mid-day to 34/0 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 33/2.

Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs < Biostage (BSTG $0.00 with 12 shares traded); Sell into Strength: bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.60), Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU -$0.03), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.38), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$5.33), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.19)> 2 MISS < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.29), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.50) – profits were made>  

Key Metrics: review the volume disparities between daily sessions …

• Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 17 of 26-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
• Monday was market holiday
• Friday - Sector volume was HIGH with 26 of the 33-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 2-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.11% and the XBI was up +3.59%
• Monday was market holiday
• Friday, the IBB was up +3.53% and the XBI was up +5.69%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Tuesday was down -0.84 points or -2.71% at 30.19
• Monday was market holiday
• Friday was down -1.83 points or -5.55% at 31.12

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 26):

• Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.28),
• Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.28),
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.15),
• Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.94),
• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.93),
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.50),
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.19),
• uniQure NV (QURE +$1.10),
• Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.91),
• bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.60),

Closing down (7 of 7):

• CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$5.33),
• Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.06),
• Precigen (PGEN -$0.05),
• Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0416),
• Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.03),
• Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0146),
• Mesoblast (MESO -$0.01),

June, Q2/2022:

• Tuesday closed positive with 26 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
• Monday was market holiday
• Friday closed positive with 33 incliner and 2 decliners

The BOTTOM LINE: is today’s rally is just another one-day wonder and investors have seen this movie before?

So, while we had a rally today, I am looking at the volatility index that is down just slightly, it is not really buying this. There is still quite a bit of nervousness around the markets.

The CBOE volatility index, also known as the fear gauge, was down to 29.94 points, its lowest level since June 15, but still way above its long-term average of 19.6 points.

Up, down, back and forth … it’s a CONSTANT tug-of-war of share pricing!

Investors should watch of the bounces and question what will be sustainable. 

HOLD on tight.

We always need a villain – Inflation affects the market and conversely the sector with downslides has remained a dominant issue for investors.

Which investors will be BUYING equities if we can barely afford gas and food!

I try to keep it simple and short … because there’s so much worry that people use any piece of good news as a chance to sell – it has become a process of developing ROI (return of investment).”

Reiterating, I believe there will be opportunity in cell and gene therapy equities but, the summer doldrums are still a roadblock. This period of volatility will likely last into the second half of the year.

However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.