August 11, 2022 4:46pm

Algos, electronics and traders are taking profits as the short-term direction is questionable as valuations are vulnerable after a totality of LPS (loss-per-share) earnings’ reports

Pre-open indications: 5 HIT and 3 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes 


If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +27.16 points (+0.08%); the S&P closed DOWN -2.97 points (-0.07%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -74.89 points (-0.58%)

 

Henry’omics:

Thursday, indexes struggled for direction from the previous session as fresh evidence of cooling inflation further cemented hopes of a smaller rise in interest rates

With less than an hour left in the trading day, the the major averages have turned negative. The Nasdaq Composite is down 0.7%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%. The Dow is marginally negative. <CNBC>
 

Economic Data Docket: producer prices fell in July, underlying inflation slows, U.S. weekly jobless claims rise for second straight week indicating further softening in the labor market despite tight conditions.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “show me the money; I’ll take cash, my powder has gotten dry. Build cash position on the back of surging share pricing to pay for the spiraling cost of hotdogs – sarcasm” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12558

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 8 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 20 up/13 and 2 flats at the mid-day, turned negative at 2 p.m. at 16/18 and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 13/20 and 2 flats.

 

Pre-open Indications: 5 HITs <Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00 with 0 shares traded), Sell into Strength:  Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.52), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.41), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.94), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.86)> 3 MISS < AxoGen (AXGN +$0.04), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.57); uniQure NV (QURE +$0.16), >   

 

Key Metrics:

  • Thursday - Sector volume was HIGH with 7 of the 13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 6 of 20-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.32% and the XBI was down -3.17%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.40 points or +2.03% at 20.14

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (13 of 13):

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.86 after Wednesday’s +$3.59, Tuesday’s +$1.17 and Monday’s +$0.50),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.38),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.36 after Wednesday’s +$4.77, Tuesday’s -$2.73 and Monday’s +$0.26),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.23 after Wednesday’s -$0.42, Tuesday’s -$1.30 and Monday’s +$0.72),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.16),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$ after Wednesday’s +$1.16),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.09 after Wednesday’s -$0.28, Tuesday’s -$2.41 and Monday’s -$0.93),
  • Cellectis SA (+$0.07),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.07),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.04 after Wednesday’s -$0.02),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.04),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.0274),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.01),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.0035),

Flat:

  • Agenus (AGEN) and Biostage (BSTG)

Closing down (10 of 20):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.67 after Wednesday’s +$1.85 and Tuesday’s -$1.45),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.61 after Wednesday’s +$8.63, Tuesday’s -$7.37 and Monday’s +$12.16),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.54),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.41 after Wednesday’s +$3.74 and Tuesday’s -$6.26),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.94 after Wednesday’s +$6.13, Tuesday’s -$3.08 and Monday’s +$0.17),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.91 after Wednesday’s +$0.79, Tuesday’s -$1.26 and Monday’s -$2.97),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.86),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.57 after Wednesday’s +$3.82),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.52 after Wednesday’s +$1.02 and Tuesday’s -$1.00),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.46),

 

August, Q3/2022:

  • Thursday closed negative with 13 incliner, 20 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Only one earnings today – and another net and LPS (loss-per-share).

The sector gains faded as anxiety grabs hold of the multiple upside trends, they don’t last …!

As I wrote this a.m., “The sector dive was brought-on hitting the downward resistance wall. This could be temporary stop or the start of a bigger retreat. Either way, investors may want to pare exposure and take some partial profits. If it's just a pause, new buying opportunities will soon present themselves.”

There are ONLY net and per share losses in Q2. SG&A’s are, I believe “OUT-OF-CONTROL”, CEOs are skimming shareholders with HIGH salaries and perks as share pricing gets hammered on alternate sessions.

The real question is how recently have CEOs bought-into their depreciated share pricing such as two: AVRO and AGTC.

As I have “noticed” yet again from to date reporting, “Most reporting sector companies … to date have reported net losses, lagging revenue estimates … although AXGN, FATE, RGNX and NTLA beat on revenues generating forward motion while ATM use is up.”

 I was proven RIGHT after having written … “I am STILL … skeptical that Tuesday through Friday’s rally can be sustain! I am also NOT convinced that the lows are in the cell and gene therapy sector are behind us.”

I’m STILL a firm believer in the “flight of Icarus” …  since the cell and gene therapy equities have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of the year... the big “slip” came yesterday, Tuesday 8/9 which was made-up on today, Wednesday!

The coming weeks will reveal more about the cell and gene therapy sector's state of health.

This week, the cell and gene therapy sector Q2 earnings continue full-force: 29 or 35 have reported, Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 8/15.

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings and a shortage of revenue reporting as a proxy for performance.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – We are stuck in “Earnings’ season, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.