October 25, 2022 4:37pm
Revolving peaks and dells in last four (4) sessions leaves cell and gene therapy sector investors questioning “real” share value; the material question is who wants to be a patient investor when one didn’t buy a ticket to the next ride
Pre-open indications: 3 Hits, 2 Miss and 1 Pump/Promote (BSTG- the usual suspect)
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths …
It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +357.58 points (+1.07%), the S&P closed UP +62 points (+1.63%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +246.50 points (+2.25%)
Indexes rose for another session Tuesday …
A decline in yields contributed to the latest market gains. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was last down by around 12 basis points at 4.108%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down around 3 basis points at 4.468%.
Economic Data Docket: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City House Price Index showed home prices fell 1.3% in the 20 core cities studied month-over-month in August, but were still 13.1% higher than a year ago. The Consumer Confidence Index also fell, showing the view on the economy has soured after two months of the outlook improving.
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “exposure to risk never changes” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12666
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 32 up/ 2 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 30 up/ 5 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/5 and 2 flats.
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 6 up/ 27 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 10 up/25 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 9/26 and 0 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hit < Agenus (AGEN +$0.02), Solid Biosciences (SLDB +0.0119), Avrobio (AVRO $0.0011). 2 Miss < Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.25), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.19)> 1 Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG +$0.01)>
- Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.01% and the XBI was up +2.68%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -1.52 points or -5.09% at 28.33
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 28):
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.19 after Monday’s -$1.41),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.71 after Monday’s -$3.03),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.55 after Monday’s -$1.55),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.25 after Monday’s -$1.35),
- CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.05 after Monday’s -$0.44),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.98),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.19 after Monday’s +$1.65),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.09 after Monday’s +$0.21),
- Prime Therapeutics (PRME +$0.85 after Monday’s -$0.56),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.81 after Monday’s -$0.38)
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)
- Mesoblast (MESO)
Closing down (5 of 5):
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.43),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.20 after Monday’s +$0.36),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.04 after Monday’s +$0.05),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.02 after Monday’s +$0.08),
- Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0011 after Monday’s +$0.0291),
Q4 - October
- Tuesday closed positive with 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats
- Monday closed negative with 9 incliner, 26 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: After market and sector session and sudden highs, rely on the sector taking a dive especially as earnings LPS (loss-per-share) releases begin this week.
Electronic trading machines relying on algorithmic “rules” to pump the sector from Monday’s doldrums.
I try to keep it simple … and short!
We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is the first to declare is Q3 earnings report on Thursday, 10/27, MiMedx (MDXG) comes in second on 11/2, Wednesday; AxoGen (AXGN), Agenus (AGEN) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 11/8.
DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news (completion of dosing) on Tuesday and the stock drops following a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
· AVRO closed down AGAIN -$0.0040 after Monday’s -$0.009 up +$0.0291 after Friday’s down -$0.0066, Thursday (down) -$0.0065, Wednesday’s -$0.0322 to $0.65, Tuesday +$0.07 after ILAP designation from the UK news after Monday’s +$0.02 to $0.60 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.
· AVRO’s 42nd session of under $1.00,
· Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?
· Or, will they “pull” an AGTC?
Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM) closed up =$0.03 to $0.33 after Monday’s down -$0.0045 to $0.307; its 23rd session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq
October has 1 neutral, 9 positive and 7 negative closes;
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!”
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.