October 26, 2022 7:49am
After a strong sector session; up comes resistance; I’d be evaluating position that should be “shucked” to cash not reveling about the peaks; while sector earnings LPS (loss-per-share) releases will set the tone for November’s sector’s share pricing
Indications: 2 BUY Dips, 7 Negative Indication, and 1 Pump/Promote (BSTG – the usual suspect)
A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.
Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter to inform investors, what they need to hear that others won’t say or write! Insight is about understanding perception and also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment
8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Dow futures are UP +0.02% or (+5 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.59% or (-23 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -1.56% or (-181 points) early in the pre-open – so far,
U.S. stock futures are falling on Wednesday
European markets are fluctuating
Asia Pacific markets rose while India’s market is closed for a holiday
Indexes rose for another session Tuesday … a decline in yields contributed to the latest market gains. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was last down by around 12 basis points at 4.108%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down around 3 basis points at 4.468%.
The Dow closed UP +357.58 points (+1.07%), the S&P closed UP +62 points (+1.63%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +246.50 points (+2.25%)
Economic Data Docket: weekly mortgage applications, wholesale inventories and new home sales.
Tuesday’s … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “the roller-coaster rides to a peak. Revolving peaks and dells in last four (4) sessions leaves cell and gene therapy sector investors questioning “real” share value; the material question is who wants to be a patient investor when one didn’t buy a ticket to the next ride.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12667
Ebb and flow:
Q4 – 1 neutral, 9 positive and 7 negative closes
· September – 1 holiday, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
· August – 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Agenus (AGEN) closed up +$0.02 to $2.63 after Monday’s -$0.03, Friday’s +$0.10, Thursday’s -$0.05, last Wednesday’s-$0.13 following Tuesday’s +$0.04 and the previous Monday’s +$0.24 with a negative -$0.02 or -0.76% pre-open indication. AGEN is projected to report earnings of -$0.18 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 126.09% <Zacks>
Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up again +$0.0119 to $0.46 after Monday’s +$0.0088, Friday’s down -$0.0027, Thursday’s $0.0026, last Wednesday’s -$0.0226 following the previous Tuesday’s +$0.0073 and Monday’s +$0.0064 with a negative -$0.03 or -5.98% pre-open indication. Sharpen your pencil – new investment and management coming from Bain funds with an acquisition of AvantiBio and a $75 million private placement. Combined company is expected to have approximately $215 million in cash and investments, which is expected to fund the combined company into 2025 and support attainment of key milestones for lead gene therapy programs -
Avrobio (AVRO) closed down -$0.0011 to $0.678 after Monday’s $0.0291 and Friday’s -$0.0066 with a neutral $0.00 pre-open indication. It’s now the 42nd session of being under Nasdaq’s $1.00 listing requirement.
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up +$0.26 to $11.64 with a neutral $0.00 pre-open indication,
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed up +$2.55 after Monday’s -$1.55, Friday’s +$0.61, Thursday’s -$3.31 and last Wednesday’s -$2.41 following the previous Tuesday +$0.54 and Monday’s +$2.20 with a negative -$1.22 or -2.38% pre-open indication
Prime Therapeutics (PRME) closed up +$0.85 to $16.05 after Monday’s -$0.56, Friday’s up +$0.39 following an IPO of 10.29 M shares priced at $17.00 with a negative -$0.44 or -2.74% as the flippers could be selling.
Ultragenyx (RARE) closed up +$2.25 to $39.39 after Monday’s -$1.35, Friday’s +$0.66, Thursday’s -$0.17 and last Wednesday’s -$1.47 following the previous Tuesday’s +$1.15 and Monday’s +$1.24 with a negative -$0.39 or -0.99% pre-open indication.
uniQure NV (QURE) closed up +$0.45 to $18.92 after Monday’s -$0.89, Friday’s +$0.60 and Thursday’s +$0.05 with a negative -$0.57 or -3.01% pre-open indication,
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up again +$1.19 to $34.84 after Monday’s +$1.65, Friday’s +$0.58, Thursday’s +$0.42 and last Wednesday’s -$2.05 following the previous Tuesday’s + 0.60 and Monday’s +$1.80 with a negative -$1.32 or -$3.79 pre-open indication,
Puff/Pump and Promote: Maintaining SELL
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed up +$0.01 with 1,007 shares traded after Monday’s -$0.75 with 3,035 shares traded, Friday’s +$0.23 with 1,082 shares traded and last Thursday’s -$0.08 with 2,031 shares traded <3-month average = 2,190 shares>
Questions need to be answered and they NEVER are for shareholders; as the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution does guarantee the “freedom of speech, or of the press” … but I guess NOT to respond?
- Who, WHAT and WHERE are pumping and promoting the “spikes” in volume and share price … coming from?
- What is DST Capital? Is DST Capital really managed by Mrs. bin Zhao of Weston, Mass and Hong Yu, president of BSTG? Is LIU Dong-hai chairman of D. Phone, one of the largest smartphone retailers in China and Dixintong Technology group; the ultimate funder of DST Capital?
- Consider the attrition rate of the past five (5) years: three (3) CEOs, one (1) CMO who became president, one (1) employee who became president, six (6) CFOs with one (1) interim CFO who walked-out over bringing irregularities to interim management in an audit review, three (3) controllers, a VP of Finance who left without notice and reappeared as a consultant twice, five (5) members of the board of directors of which four (4) were on the audit committee, three (3) other operating VPs and twenty (20) scientific employees. And, three (3) or is it four (4) accounting firms in five years.
- Would you TRUST this management team
The BOTTOM LINE: No one company is immune in the sector and this market … of rolling downdrafts?
Reiterating, “I try to keep it simple … and short …
Kenny Storch at BTIG, states there are 226 public biotech companies trading below cash currently. With 1 out of 5 in the Nasdaq Biotech Index trading below cash.
Is it a sign of the times for a few gene therapy companies to end-up like AGTC – running out of money with delisting hanging over their head like a sword of Damocles (?)
Companies NEED transparency and advantage of good practices in relation to outreach to investors which means … NOT to enrich themselves at shareholder’s expense!
Reiterating, “I believe the sector is showing mixed signals, some BUYs more SELLs – yet I also believe we should BUY Agenus (AGEN) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB).
We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.
Q4 is HERE and we are back into Q3 earnings season which could be a minefield:
· Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on Thursday, 10/27
· MiMedx (MDXG) and Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/2 at 5 p.m.
· Fate therapeutics (FATE) on Thursday, 11/3,
· AxoGen (AXGN) on 11/8,
· Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) on Wednesday, 11/9
If you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any … before earnings season begins!
Reiterating, “Set aside volatility and there still aren't good reasons to be invested now; companies are saving ANY news for the earnings season.”
DISPOSE of Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news and the stock drops after a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
· AVRO closed down -$0.0011 after Monday’s +$0.0291 following Friday’s down -$0.0066, Thursday (down) -$0.0065, Wednesday’s -$0.0322 to $0.65, Tuesday +$0.07 after ILAP designation from the UK news after Monday’s +$0.02 to $0.60 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.
· Where is the upside coming from to “solve” the de-listing “position” on Nasdaq?
· Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address its delisting?
· OR, will they “pull” an AGTC?
When it comes time to invest or even hold onto an investment; I’d say … focus on what percentage ownership of stock … NOT options CEOs and management teams own versus their salary and bonus.
Amid the ongoing cell and gene therapy sector volatility, “our” universe’s trend remains " in a constant correction." That means that investors are safer on the sidelines as again … earnings are coming.
My guide to 'good news seems to be bad news' and 'bad news is good news. 'In normal times, no one really questions whether good news in the economy is actually good.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.