October 26, 2022 4:44pm
Not as bad as I supposed while I am also usually early on volatility prognostications
Pre-open indications: 1 Hit, 8 Miss and 1 Pump/Promote (BSTG- the usual suspect)
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths
It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +2.37 points (+0.01%), the S&P closed Down -28.51 points (-0.74%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -228.12 points (-2.04%)
Indexes were mixed as the Dow closed barely positive S&P and Nasdaq fell on Wednesday as disappointing results and warnings from Microsoft and Alphabet sparked losses in mega-cap companies and raised fears of slowing economic growth.
An appropriate quote, “The swings in the major indexes reflect a “tug of war” between corporate America and the Federal Reserve that has left investors attempting to balance what companies are reporting and what that means for future interest rate hikes.” <Keith Buchanan, portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investment>
Economic Data Docket: New home sales fell 10.9% in September from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 603,000 units, according to the Commerce Department. New home sales were expected to fall 13.4% to 593,000 units. Mortgage applications decreased 1.7% compared to the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “electronic trading and algorithmic rules keep sentiment on a leash. After a strong sector session; up comes resistance; I’d be evaluating position that should be “shucked” to cash not reveling about the peaks; while sector earnings LPS (loss-per-share) releases will set the tone for November’s sector’s share pricing.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12668
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 7 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 28 up/6 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 23/12 and 0 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 1 Hit < uniQure NV (QURE -$0.01> 8 Miss < Solid Biosciences (SLDB -0.0080), Agenus (AGEN -$0.02), Avrobio (AVRO $0.0041), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.48), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.34), Prime Therapeutics (PRME +$0.36), Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.58), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$2.16). 1 Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG +$0.50)>
- Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 6 of the 23-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 12-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.58% and the XBI was up +1.66%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -0.99 points or -3.48% at 27.47
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 23):
- CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.75 after Tuesday’s +$2.05 and Monday’s -$0.44),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.46 after Tuesday’s +$2.71 and Monday’s -$3.03),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$2.16 after Tuesday’s +$1.19 and Monday’s +$1.65),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.38 after Tuesday’s +$1.98),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.34 after Tuesday’s +$2.55 and Monday’s -$1.55),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.28 after Tuesday’s -$0.20 and Monday’s +$0.36),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.19),
- Vericel (VCEL +$1.05 after Tuesday’s +$0.81 after Monday’s -$0.38)
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.81 after Tuesday’s +$3.19 and Monday’s -$1.41),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.65),
Closing down (12 of 12):
- Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU -$0.17),
- Precigen (PGEN -$0.05),
- Verastem (VSTM -$0.0325),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.03 after Tuesday’s -$0.04 and Monday’s +$0.05),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.03),
- Agenus (AGEN -$0.03),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.02 and Monday’s +$0.08),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.01),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.01),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.0093),
- Solid biosciences (SLDB -$0.0080),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.0050)
Q4 - October
- Wednesday closed positive with 23 incliner, 12 decliners and 0 flat
- Tuesday closed positive with 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats
- Monday closed negative with 9 incliner, 26 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
Kenny Storch at BTIG, states there are 226 public biotech companies trading below cash currently. With 1 out of 5 in the Nasdaq Biotech Index trading below cash. <I have also been stating the same theme!>
We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.
Q4 is HERE and we are back into Q3 earnings season which could be a minefield:
· Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on Thursday, 10/27
· MiMedx (MDXG) and Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/2 at 5 p.m.
· Fate therapeutics (FATE) on Thursday, 11/3,
· AxoGen (AXGN) on 11/8,
· Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) on Wednesday, 11/9
If you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any … before earnings season begins!
DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news (completion of dosing) on Tuesday and the stock drops following a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
· AVRO closed up +$0.015 after Tuesday’s -$0.0041, Monday’s -$0.009 up +$0.0291, Friday’s down -$0.0066, Thursday (down) -$0.0065, and last Wednesday’s -$0.0322 to $0.65, after ILAP designation from the UK news which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.
· AVRO’s 43nd session of under $1.00,
· Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?
· Or, will they “pull” an AGTC and get acquired by a shell?
Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM) closed down -$0.0352 after Tuesday’s +$0.03 to $0.33 after Monday’s down -$0.0045 to $0.307; its 24th session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq
October has 1 neutral, 10 positive and 7 negative closes;
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.