December 12, 2022 4:42pm
I believe, we will see further share pricing resistance as December continues. If the markets and sector “pumps’ today, it could beget a downdraft in next few sessions and money will be made by shorts?
News: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.07) A P1 trial, presented at ASH, showed the potential for CTX110 to achieve long-term durable complete remissions (CRs) with a positively differentiated safety profile in heavily pre-treated patients, and emerging data from Part B showed an encouraging efficacy profile with several patients in ongoing CR beyond six months. Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.81) reported new 12-month clinical data from cohort 1 in the ongoing ANTLER P1 trial, which show long-term durability following a single infusion of CB-010 at the initial dose level 1 (40x106 CAR-T cells). BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics Inc. (BCLI +$0.49) has submitted a Type A Meeting Request to the FDA to discuss the contents of a refusal to file letter previously issued by the FDA regarding the company's New Biologics License Application (BLA) for NurOwn® for the treatment of ALS.
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hit and 3 Miss
Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +528.58 points (+1.58%), the S&P closed UP +56.18 points (+1.43%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +139.12 points (+1.26%)
Henry’omics:
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes “hopped” Monday after last week’s losses, while traders pondered the anticipated CPI (inflation) numbers and Fed meeting outcomes.
On Tuesday, “the November consumer price index will be released and traders will be looking for a sign that inflation is slowing. The same day, the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day meeting and is expected to announce another rate hike on Wednesday, though traders are anticipating a smaller move than in recent months.” <CNBC>
More on that subject, "The CPI report will show a continued decline in year-on-year growth." <Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, New York - Reuters>
- “Fears of an economic downturn have hammered Wall Street's main indexes this year, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 down 29.4% and 17%, respectively. The indexes are on track for their worst yearly performance since 2008.” <Reuters>
Economic Data Docket: a New York Fed survey showed consumers had grown more optimistic about inflation in November. The bank’s survey of Consumer Expectations showed consumers expected one-year inflation to run at a 5.2% pace, down -0.7% from October.
Monday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “wait or take a risky shot at the oversold rolling up? Think, “uncle” algorithm ahead of CPI (consumer price index) inflation report on Tuesday and Fed rate hike “directions” on Wednesday about further tightening in early 2023” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12739
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference …
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 27 up/ 6 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 28 up/ 6 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 30/3 and 2 flats.
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 13 up/ 21 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 2/31 and 2 flat.
Pre-open indication results: 3 Hit <Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.18), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.31), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.07)> 3 MISS <Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.81), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.12), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.76)>
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.79% and the XBI was up +2.51%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +2.18 points or +9.55% at 25.01
Closing Down (3 of 3):
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$2.70),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.81),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.03),
Closing Up (10 of 30):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.53 after Friday’s -$6.68),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$5.18 after Friday’s -$2.57),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.13 after Friday’s -$0.56),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.10),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.07 after Friday’s -$1.51),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.93),
- Chinook therapeutics (KDNY +$1.54),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.12 after Friday’s -$0.46),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.97 after Friday’s -$0.80),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.76 after Friday’s -$0.50),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.69 after Friday’s -$0.78),
Flat (2):
- Avrobio (AVRO)
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
Q4 – December
- Monday closed positive with 30 incliner, 3 decliners and 2 flats
- Friday closed negative with 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
There are clear winners today and fewer losers; the following paragraphs might be construed to be contrarian; yet, be prepared by what could or will happen as dictated by past weeks of market and sector “happenings”!
Enjoy this rally, it could be an “The 'eye(s) of the tiger' moment, which refers to what the tiger's (algorithms) prey last sees prior to being killed. It's a reference to impending downfall of sector equities or the prey.
Be prepared … just 14 trading days remain in 2022.
I believe the sector will become even more focused on the status of clinicals, patient recruitment, interim results, share pricing and guidance from management teams who have FORGOTTEN individual investors … while some have been more focused on lining their own pockets with OUTSIZED G&A “obligations”.
To alleviate investor concern, communication MUST will be driven by a CONSTANT out-reach to individual investors; even to those who have been the worst detractors – I did it once upon a time and the “share price droning” slowed and many holders became educated and jumped on the band wagon - TRUE story after some dark days of valuation.
Just 14 trading days remain in 2022.
Another aspect driving this market and conversely the cell and gene therapy sector is FEAR of more Fed rate hikes; the probability the Fed will raise rates by 0.5% in its meeting this week while odds for a 75-basis-point hike “seems” to be lower.
many stocks have experienced upward progression - today and I believe, “uncle” algorithm hoped on the oversold to “make a buck or two” on the next reversion.
Avrobio (AVRO closed flat $0.00 (says a lot of addressing the delisting issue) having filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues? Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below> Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
