December 14, 2022 7:53am

His comments about inflation, recession risks and peak Fed rates will forecast equity’s direction and Treasury yields

Indications:  1 Positive Indications, 2 Negative Indications and 4 Sell into Strength

A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined, evaluated and reported.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!

8:00 a.m. edition

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.

 

Dow futures are DOWN -0.01% or (-2 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.02 or (-1 point) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.04% or (-4 points) early in the pre-open – so far,

Stock futures were elevating on Wednesday as investors awaited the Fed’s coming interest rate hike decision,

European markets slipped with the pan-European Stoxx 600 down -0.5% in early trade,

Asia-Pacific markets traded higher.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed positive on Tuesday with the Dow closed UP +1-03.64 points (+0.30%), the S&P closed UP +29.20 points (+0.73%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +113.08 points (+1.01%).

Think about this quote, “The market obviously believes that there’s going to be a pivot or a pause, that’s what we saw today,” said Steve Grasso, CEO of Grasso Global, on CNBC’s “Fast Money.” “If [Powell] puts a wet blanket on that, the market’s going to sell off.”

Economic Data Docket: at 2 p.m. ET, the Fed is expected to raise its fed funds rate by 50 basis points, to 4.25% - 4.5%, ending a string of four 75-basis-point hikes.

  • Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 4% for the week and were 38% lower than the same week one year ago. Mortgage applications to refinance a home loan rose 3% last week from the previous week but were still 85% lower than the same week one year ago. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) did increase ever so slightly last week to 6.42% from 6.41%.

 

Tuesday’s (9/13) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “indexes slow and some sector gains evaporate post CPI release. I knew a Tuesday close would be slightly transitory once the sector exhaled.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12742

 

Ebb and flow:

Q4 – December – 5 negative and 4 positive closes

·         November -1 holiday, 14 negative and 8 positive closes

·         October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 9 negative closes

Q3/22 –

·         September – 1 holiday, 10 positive and 11 negative closes

·         August – 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes

·         July - 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS

Attention remains laser-focused on week’s busy economic calendar; there’s still a bit of hesitation in front of inflation data to really see the reality of the markets and cell and gene therapy sector ability or capacity to move upward.

Positive indication:

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.32 to $22.45 with a positive +$0.51 or +2.27% pre-open indications.

 

While negative indications were evident:

Prime Medicine (PRME) closed up +$0.19 to $17.07 with a negative -$0.52 or -3.05% aftermarket indication,

Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.73 to $41.79 with a negative -$1.26 or -3.02% aftermarket indication.

 

Sell into Strength:

Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) closed up +$0.80 to $25.03 with a positive +$1.26 or +5.03% aftermarket indication.

uniQure NV (QURE) closed up +$0.47 to $23.46 with a positive +$0.73 or +3.11% pre-open indication.

Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.99 to $24.58 with a positive +$1.61 or +7.01% aftermarket indication.

Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$0.05 to $6.25 with a positive +$0.25 or +45 aftermarket indication.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!

Waiting for the Fed's words/decision on hike ...

Sector equities showed upside moves at Tuesday's close with mostly marginal advances or small number losses.

Until the sector shifts from choppy action to sustained uptrend, it's risky to ramp up exposure.

The market and sector face a big technical test with inflation and Fed reporting playing a major role in how the week plays out.

Be prepared … just 12 trading days remain in 2022.

Until December 31, investors may want to be cautious about making new buys.

I’d be calculating selling for tax purposes amid the ongoing cell and gene therapy sector volatility, “our” universe’s trend remains " in a constant correction." That means that … lately we are investors are safer on the sidelines.

Yet, it’s setting-up for those to bottom fish for December exits and new Year BUYS although it will be tough to get through the end-of-month sessions

Insight is about understanding perception and also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.