January 3, 2023 7:45am
Meeting the unknowns, soon to be knowns will be the subject of investing decisions through-out this first month of 2023; I believe a number of sector equities are temporarily on hold on the runway preparing to take-off
Pre-open Indication: 2 Positive Indications, 2 Negative Indications and 2 Sell into Strength
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Investors need to remember, the cell and gene therapy sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be …
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!
Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me …
The 8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Dow futures are UP +0.41% or (+135 points), S&P futures are UP +0.47% or (+18 point) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.68% or (+75 points) early in the pre-open – so far,
Stock futures rose in Tuesday’s pre-open,
European markets were higher,
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed.
Henry’omics:
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes fell on Friday as investors made their final trades in the worst year for the market since 2008.
- The Dow closed DOWN -73.55 points (-0.22%), the S&P closed DOWN -9.78 points (-0.25%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -11.60 points (-0.11%)
Monday was a market holiday; while, Friday marked the final day of trading in what has been a painful year for stocks.
All three of the major averages suffered their worst year since 2008 and snapped a three (3) year win streak.
For 2022, the Dow was down -8.8%, the S&P 500 sank -19.4%, while the Nasdaq dived -33.1%.
Economic Data Docket: S&P Global manufacturing PMI and construction spending,
Friday’s (9/30) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “2022 rushed into its session, week, month and year end with a positive close. On track for their worst annual losses since 2008 as investors look to put the painful year behind them.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12766
Ebb and flow:
Q1/23 – 1 holiday and today is the first trading session
Q4
· December – 1 holiday, 13 negative and 8 positive closes
· November -1 holiday, 14 negative and 8 positive closes
· October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Sell Into Strength:
Prime Medicine (PRME) closed down -$1.24 to $18.58 (52-week low of $14.52 and a high of $21.73) with a positive +$0.77 or +4.14% (Friday) aftermarket indication,
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.88 to $26.34 (52-week low of $17.30 and a high of $43.97) with a neutral (Friday) aftermarket indication,
Positive Indications:
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +$0.54 to $19.35 (52-week low of $10.70 and high of $43.00) with a positive +$0.64 or +3.31% pre-open indication,
Regenxbio (RGNX) closed down -$0.14 to $22.68 (52-week low of $18.69 and a high of $35.73) with a positive +$0.56 or +2.47% (Friday) aftermarket indication,
Negative Indications:
Agenus (AGEN) closed up +$0.09 to $2.40 (52-week low of $1.25 and a high of $3.49) with a negative -$0.02 or -0.83% pre-open indication Is there an offering coming? Agenus (AGEN) possible offering of 1.95 million share … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12767
Avrobio (AVRO) closed down $0.0176 to $0.7129 (52-week low of $0.56 and a high of $4.15) but, under a Nasdaq (Friday) aftermarket period with a negative -$0.02 or -3.07% pre-open indication,
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!
A homily but, not quite a gospel …
I write/post/publish about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of sector vulnerabilities and strengths – it’s more than opinion, some facts in evidence need to be recognized!
Investors will be looking for a brighter stock market in 2023 after a "dribbling-down" year, especially for cell and gene therapy sector equities.
Remember, the Nasdaq had its biggest annual declines in 14 years:
· down 33.10% for the year
· down 1.03% for the quarter
· down 8.73% for the month
· down 0.30% for the week
While the Russell 2000 small caps finished:
· down 21.56% for the year
· up 5.8% for the quarter
· down 6.64% for the month
· up 0.02% for the week
<TKS, numbers from Jesse Pounds and Christopher Hayes of CNBC>
A market rally attempt … could be underway, but sector equities need to prove themselves.
As 2023 trading begins, some investors think the pain is far from over; I agree for Q1 as earnings releases could hinder share pricing however, once through that “gauntlet” – we could see a bit of a smoother road in Q2 hoping for a few clinical results and successful financings – well needed for more than usual companies.
Aristotle may have been the first to crystallize the fallacies (in writing at least) of many situations we are trying to deal with. Ad Verecundiam (Appeal to Authority) is certainly one fallacy, Ad Metum (Appeal to Fear) is the answer to the argument!
I also make a commitment to provide need-to-know “facts in evidence” as equity’s volatility is one tactical signal for stocks.
In compiling my indication signals, I draw on logic, historical precedents, specific knowledge of the sector and its practices as to lessons learned. It’s important for investors to identify and determine which indication is actually performance based.
There’s a difference between trust and conviction. Trust is something you can rely on, beyond certainty. Conviction doesn't demand that you, or anyone else, play by the rules. After gains, there’s pain; followed by advances, declines and other progressions or was it regressions?
Bad, good and no news or information somewhere in between gets sold into – lately it’s just a matter of the algorithms, dark pools and ETFs but … disruption can come in many forms!
Just remember, when you point one finger, there are three fingers pointing back at you.
Insight is about understanding perception and also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment,
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.
