January 3, 2023 5:04pm
Momentum turned negative breaking support
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 3 Miss <for how long?>
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The Dow closed DOWN -10.88 points (-0.03%), the S&P closed DOWN -15.36 points (-0.40%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -79.50 points (-0.76%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes gave up early gains on the first trading day of 2023.
Monday was a market holiday.
Coming “gauntlet” events …
· Wednesday is a big day with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as JOLTS, due out in the morning and the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting set to come out in the afternoon.
· Friday’s December jobs report, the final employment report the Fed will have to consider before its next meeting on Feb. 1. There are also several speeches by Fed presidents scheduled Thursday and Friday.
Economic Data Docket: the U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing came in lower than expected, signaling the fastest slip since May 2020. Later in the day, construction spending for November ticked up slightly, showing that the industry may be recovering.
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits <Agenus (AGEN +$0.00), Prime Medicine (PRME -$1.04), Vericel (VCEL -$1.21)> and 3 MISS <Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.45), Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.43), Avrobio (AVRO +$0.0495)>
Tuesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “Expectation will be the word for 2023. Meeting the unknowns, soon to be knowns will be the subject of investing decisions through-out this first month of 2023; I believe a number of sector equities are temporarily on hold on the runway preparing to take-off.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12768
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 24 up/ 10 down and 1 flat, flipped negative at 12 p.m. with 12 up/22 down and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day, with 14 up/ 20 down and 1 flat ending with a negative close of 15/18 and 2 flats.
- Monday was a market holiday
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 12 up/ 21 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 9 up/ 26 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 24/10 and 1 flat.
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.95% and the XBI was down -1.76%
- Monday – a market holiday
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was up +1.15 points or +5.31% at 22.82
- Monday – a market holiday
Closing Down (10 of 18):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.06 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s -$0.40),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.79 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$0.40),
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.21 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$0.88),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$1.04 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s -$1.24),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.87 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s -$0.53),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.83),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.81 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$1.16),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.76 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$0.30),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.53),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.45 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$0.51),
Flat (2):
- Agenus (AGEN
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO))
Closing Up (10 of 15):
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$1.31 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$0.49),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.35 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$0.57),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.33 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$0.23),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.24 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s -$0.43),
- MiMedx (MDXG +$0.19),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.17),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.12),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.11),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.08),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.06 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s -$0.01070,
Q1/23 – January
- Tuesday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
- Monday – a market holiday
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
2022’s selling pressures “jumped-the-fence” into the first trading day …
I recommend that investors keep their powder dry UNTILL early 2023 market trends are revealed.
“2023 may not be the fresh start for investors, with strategists warning that many of the headwinds that plagued markets in 2022 will persist into the new year: inflation, continued monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, and the risk of a hard landing as further rate hikes permeate the U.S. economy.” <Yahoo Finance>
What makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.
There are VERY clear losers today … and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Vericel (VCEL) and Prime Therapeutics (PRME) fell to the wayside.
… With winners … Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB) ascended
Reiterating, “The biggest issue for the New Year will be the cloud of recession overhanging the economy, market volatility that affects and effects our universe of cell and gene therapy sector equities.”
Avrobio (AVRO closed up +$0.0495 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s down -$0.0176.
- Says a lot of addressing the delisting issue) as volume WORKS against AVRO having filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues?
Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed up +$1.31 with only 130 shares traded (they keep buying the shares with a pump/promote agenda after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$0.49 with 1,446 shares traded. <3-month average volume =1,856 shares>
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
