January 6, 2023 8:34am
The sector has a lot to prove its value, share pricing strength depends on catalysts and collaborators/partners, not algorithms
News: Pfizer (PFE) is planning to pull back on early-stage research into treatments for rare diseases, including the development of new viral-based gene therapies. Fate Therapeutics (FATE closed -$0.12 with a pre-open -$5.82 or -52.91% indication) Termination of collaboration with Janssen (JNJ). bluebird bio (BLUE) has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its second Rare Pediatric Disease Priority Review Voucher (PRV) for $95 million. The sale of the voucher provides non-dilutive funding for BLUE.
Pre-open Indication: 2 Positive Indications and 5 Negative Indications
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The 8:45 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Dow futures are UP +1.11% or (+368 points), S&P futures are UP +1.16% or (+44 point) and NASDAQ futures are UP +1.07% or (+115 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures are up post jobs report’s release,
Stock futures are little changed,
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise.
Henry’omics:
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes fell Thursday after jobs data showed the labor market is still strong amid the Fed’s interest rate hikes to tame inflation.
The Dow closed DOWN -339.69 points (-1.02%), the S&P closed DOWN -44.87 points (-1.16%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -153.52 points (-1.47%)
Indexes are set to close out the first trading week of the year with losses:
· Dow -0.66%
· S&P -0.82%
· Nasdaq -1.54%
Economic Data Docket: December jobs report - Nonfarm payrolls rose 223,000 in December, as strong jobs market tops expectations
- The Fed wants to see slower hiring and wage growth to ease inflation pressures. Fed policymakers also have signaled repeatedly, including in Wednesday's Fed minutes from the December meeting, worry that a stock and bond market rally could undermine their inflation fight.
News (continued): PFE <the company told employees on Thursday afternoon> said it would “externalize” most of its early-stage rare disease programs in neurology and cardiology, and gene therapy programs not yet in clinical trials. Among the assets on the chopping block is gene therapy manufacturing facility in Durham, North Carolina, in which the company announced in December 2021 it was investing nearly $70 million. <Barron’s>
Thursday’s (1/5) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “it’s the economy, stupid. What did I say yesterday, “Reversing losses, don’t totally bet on today’s (Wednesday) “re-positioning” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12773
Ebb and flow:
Q1/23 – 1 holiday, 1 positive and 2 negative closes
Q4
· December – 1 holiday, 13 negative and 8 positive closes
· November -1 holiday, 14 negative and 8 positive closes
· October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Positive Indications:
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +$0.87 to $40.12 after Wednesday’s +$1.67 with a positive +$0.40 or +1% aftermarket indication,
Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$0.29 to $6.29 with a positive +$0.39 or +6.20% pre-open indication,
Negative Indications:
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$0.06 to $41.14 after Wednesday’s +$3.88 with a negative -$0.14 or -0.34% pre-open indication,
Fate Therapeutics (FATE) closed down -$0.12 to $11.00 after Wednesday’s +$0.95 with a negative -$5.82 or -52.91% pre-open indication “saying” it declined a proposal from Janssen Biotech (JNJ) for continuation of the collaboration and option agreement between the parties on revised terms and conditions and, as a result, the agreement has been terminated and all collaboration activities will be wound down in the Q1/23. < https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fate-therapeutics-announces-termination-collaboration-220000222.html>
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.18 to $39.34 with a negative -$0.46 or -1.17% aftermarket indication
Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -$0.21 to $47.23 with a negative -$0.93 or -1.97% aftermarket indication,
Vericel (VCEL) closed down -$1.04 to $24.47 with a negative -$0.47 or -1.92% aftermarket indication,
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!
The “glitter” of JPM’s healthcare Conference<next week> should highlight “disparities” of the sector!
Investors should wait for clear signs of upward or forward motion before making new buys.
“Be wary of buying stocks on the first "blip" of strength. It's still time to be cautious about any new buys. Buy signals and breakouts could quickly fizzle if the market falls back again.” <IBD>
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Reiterating, “As 2023 trading begins, some investors think the pain is far from over; I agree for Q1 as earnings releases could hinder share pricing however, once through that “gauntlet” – we could see a bit of a smoother road in Q2/2023 hoping for a few clinical results and successful financings – well needed for more than usual companies.”
“Don't act like the market is in an uptrend until the market is actually in an uptrend”.
Insight is about understanding perception and also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment,
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.
