January 9, 2023 5:09pm
As I stated the a.m., “will JPM23 stimulate or just ripple share pricing (?)”. As the sector’s pricing opened down and jockeyed plus and loss <advance decline line of 17/18, 18/17, 17/18 all through mid-afternoon eventually the cell and gene therapy sector closed negative
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 3 Miss
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -112.96 points (-0.34%), the S&P closed DOWN -2.99 points (-0.08%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +66.36 points (+0.63%)
We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Monday marks the fifth trading day of 2023 and the advent of the JP Morgan healthcare conference attendance after covid cancellations.
Indexes were mixed as the Dow and S&P reversed early gains on Monday as traders added to bets that inflation may be easing following a chaotic week with the Dow and S&P 500 posting their best weeks since November.
Volume rose on the NYSE and fell on the Nasdaq compared with the same time on Friday.
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits < Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.04), uniQure NV (QURE -$1.91), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.46)> and 3 MISS < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.70), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$6.06), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.67)>
Note: RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: News related to JPM23 … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12777
Monday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “will JPM23 stimulate or just ripple share pricing? I believe nuances of clinical advancement, platform shifts, ATM utilization, lack of capital market access, revenue shortfalls compounded by economics, and ultimately algorithmic based sentiment has added a new awkwardness to value. Remember hope is NOT a technical indicator!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12776
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference …
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 23 up/ 10 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 17 up/ 18 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 13/22 and 0 flat
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 26 up/ 7 down and 2 flats, flipped positive with 21 up/ 12 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 18/15 and 2 flats
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was down -2.15% and the XBI was down -2.27%
- Friday, the IBB was up +1% and the XBI was up +0.85%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +0.84points or +3.98% at 21.97
- Friday was down -1.44 points or -6.41% at 21.02
Closing Down (10 of 22):
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$6.06 after Friday’s -$0.57),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.28 after Friday’s -$0.68),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$3.27 after Friday’s +$0.40),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$1.91),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.71 after Friday’s -$0.69),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.70 after Friday’s -$0.76),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.99 after Friday’s +$0.36),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.78),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.53 after Friday’s -$0.24),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.52 after Friday’s -$1.04),
Closing Up (10 of 13):
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.67 after Friday’s +$0.40),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.03 after Friday’s -$6.76 <-61.45%> with Janssen collaboration/deal terminating),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.53 after Friday’s +$0.27 after ATM utilization),
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.23)
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.15)
- MiMedx (MDXG +$0.07)
- Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.07)
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.06),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.04 after Friday’s +$0.67),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.0288),
Q1/23 – January
- Monday closed negative with 13 incliner, 22 decliners and 0 flat
- Friday closed positive with 18 incliner, 15 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I will lead with ...
The JP Morgan healthcare conference is shaking the tree with many/most attending companies rushing out ANY news and early quarterly results as the cell and gene therapy … inched and closed down <of my 35 covered companies>
Reiterating, what STILL makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.
· “The “glitter” of JPM23’s healthcare Conference<next week> should highlight “disparities” of the sector!
· Investors should wait for clear signs of upward or forward motion before making new buys.
· Be wary of buying stocks on the first "blip" of strength. It's still time to be cautious about any new buys.
· Buy signals and breakouts could quickly fizzle if the market falls back again.
There are VERY clear losers today … Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – all last week and today followed by Ionis Pharmaceuticals
… With winners … BioLife Solutions (BLFS), Fate therapeutics (FATE) and Cellectis SA (CLLS)
A couple of my miscreants ...
Avrobio (AVRO closed up +$0.0179 to $0.85 <after being up almost +$0.05> with heavy volume of 913,508 shares traded after last Friday’s -$0.0227 with 294,842 shares trading after Thursday’s +$0.02 with 609,564 share traded after Wednesday’s +$0.0825 with 653, 056 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.04 95 after Monday’s holiday and the previous Friday’s down -$0.0176.
Today’s sessions say a lot of addressing the delisting issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues?
Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed up +$0.23 with 121 shares traded after Friday’s FLAT with 25 shares traded, Thursday’s -$1.10 with 2,634 shares traded, Wednesday’s flat with 1 share traded, Tuesday’s +$1.31 with only 130 shares traded (they keep buying the shares with a pump/promote agenda) after Monday’s holiday. <3-month average volume =1,577 shares>
· Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following USA rules!!
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!
· They hired a CRO; hope they PAY them after all the difficulties the previous CRO went through and the same individuals are in charge!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiment's leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.