January 12, 2023 4:37pm

The so-called “core” index was 5.7% higher than a year ago in December

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 1 Miss

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth! Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +216.24 points (+0.64%), the S&P closed UP +13.48 points (+0.34%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +69.43 points (+0.64%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Indexes modestly Thursday after December’s consumer price report came in line with economist expectations and showed signs of cooling inflation.

The Nasdaq is on pace for the biggest weekly increase of the three indexes, gaining 4.1% so far as investors picked up beaten-down growth stocks ahead of the CPI report. The S&P 500 advances +2.3% and Dow +1.7%.

Economic Data Docket: The December report showed a 0.1% dip in prices from November but was still 6.5% higher than the prior year. In November, the report showed a 0.1% monthly gain and an annual pace of 7.1%.

·         Shelter costs, which includes rent, jumped more than expected in the December consumer price index.

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits < BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.13), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.39), Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.03)> and 1 MISS < Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.26)>

 

Thursday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “the cell/gene therapy sector reminds me of Abbott & Costello. Who's on first – CPI inflation report, “What's on second, I Don't Know is on third ...That's what I want to find out”. Investors were optimistic ahead of an inflation report that could give the Fed room to dial back on its aggressive interest rate hikes.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12783

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference …

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 26 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with 22 up/ 13 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 30/5 and 0 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.84% and the XBI was up +4.17%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -2.06 points or -9.77% at 19.03

 

 

Closing Down (5 of 5):

  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.39 after Wednesday’s -$0.66 and Tuesday’s -$0.21),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.25 after Wednesday’s -$0.22),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.14),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.0118),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0002),

Closing Up (10 of 30):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.62 after Wednesday’s +$5.72 after Tuesday’s -$0.22 and Monday’s -$5.28),
  • Sage Therapeutics +$4.35),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.49 after Wednesday’s +$1.43),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.92 after Wednesday’s -$0.11 and Tuesday’s +$3.88),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.47 after Wednesday’s -$1.73, Tuesday’s +$2.85 and Monday’s -$6.06),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.39 after Wednesday’s +$0.30 and Tuesday’s +$1.18),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.31),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.13 after Wednesday’s +$0.60, Tuesday’s +$0.79 and Monday’s -$0.99),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.13 after Wednesday’s +$1.53),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.11 after Wednesday’s +$0.22),

 

Q1/23 – January

  • Thursday closed positive with 30 incliner, 5 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Reiterating, what STILL makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.

·         Investors should wait for clear signs of upward or forward motion before making new buys.

·         Be wary of buying stocks on the first "blip" of strength. It's still time to be cautious about any new buys.

·         Buy signals and breakouts could quickly fizzle if the market falls back again.

There are VERY clear losers today … AxoGen (AXGN), Compass therapeutics (CMPX) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)

… With winners … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM),

and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

Reiterating, “The biggest issue for the New Year will be the cloud of recession overhanging the economy, market volatility that affects and effects our universe of cell and gene therapy sector equities.”

Avrobio (AVRO closed up =$0.0447 with 71,210 shares traded after Wednesday’s - $0.0198 with 95,425 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.02 with 170,669 shares traded, Monday’s +$0.0179 to $0.85 <after being up almost +$0.05> with heavy volume of 913,508 shares traded after last Friday’s -$0.0227 with 294,842 shares trading.

Today’s sessions say a lot of addressing the delisting issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues?

Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>

Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html

·         Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!

·         While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed up +$0.08 with 671 shares traded after Wednesday’s   -$0.21 with 100 shares trade, Tuesday with 0 shares traded, Monday’s +$0.23 with 121 shares traded, Friday’s FLAT with 25 shares traded and last Thursday’s -$1.10 with 2,634 shares traded, (they keep buying the shares with a pump/promote agenda). <3-month average volume =1,414 shares>

·         Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following USA rules!!

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!

·         They hired a CRO; hope they PAY them after all the difficulties the previous CRO went through and the same individuals are in charge!

 My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.