January 27, 2023 5:15pm

Big economic number’s drops and pops day as sector luckily moves to the upside

Pre-Open Indication: 2 Hits and 3 MISS

The Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) Chronicles: four (4) sessions in a row with 2K shares traded each session, the pump (volume) and promote (share price) this week to keep the value up; after Monday’s -$0.09 and two (2) NO volume days. Shouldn’t the SEC be monitoring? Should U.S. investors trust any forthcoming offering?

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +28.67 points (+0.08%), the S&P closed UP +10.13 points (+0.25%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +109.30 points (+0.95%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Indexes moved to the upside as “econs” pressed.

Interesting outlook, “Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers urged the Federal Reserve to refrain from signaling its next move after an expected interest-rate hike next week because of the economy’s highly uncertain outlook.”

The Dow is up 2.51%, the S&P has gained 6.02%, while the Nasdaq has surged 11.04%.

Economic Data Docket: The core personal consumption price expenditures index, which the Fed considers a key inflation gauge, rose by 4.4% from a year ago in December, on a monthly basis, core PCE, which strips out food and energy, increased 0.3%. The headline number increased 5% on an annual basis and 0.1% monthly.

·         Personal income rose 0.2% while personal spending was down 0.2%, compared to respective estimates for 0.2% and -0.1%.

·         Pending home sales increased in December; up 2.5% in December from November.

·         Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan for January came in at 64.9, slightly above the consensus estimate of 64.6 from economist

 

Friday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “wobble (stagger)or boggle (fear)? Sector changes, evolves and disintegrates as many wait for an algorithmic bromide.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12806

 

Pre-Open Indications: 3 Miss <uniQure NV (QURE -$0.15), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.45), Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.19)> 2 Hits < Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.06) Ultragenyx (RATE -$0.42)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened –

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 24 up/ 9 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 23 up/ 11 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 22/12 and 1 flat.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 24 down and 3 flats, stayed negative with 6 up/ 27 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 11/23 and 1 flat.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 30 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 4 up/ 29 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 12/20 and 3 flats.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 8 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 20 up/ 14 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 20/13 and 0 flat.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 14 up/ 21 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with 19 up/ 16 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 24/9 and 2 flats

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.05% and the XBI was up +0.89%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.27% and the XBI was down -0.30%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.01% and the XBI was up +0.09%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.01% and the XBI was up +1.90%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.97% and the XBI was up +0.20%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.20 points or -1.07% at 18.53
  • Thursday was down -0.33 points or -1.73% at 18.75
  • Wednesday was down -0.12 points or -0.63% at 19.08
  • Tuesday was down -0.63 points or -3.18% at 19.18
  • Monday was down -0.07 points or -0.35% at 19.78

 

Closing Down (12 of 12):

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.60 after Thursday’s +$0.46, Wednesday’s -$0.53 and Tuesday’s +$2.38),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.42 after Thursday’s +$0.74),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.30 after Thursday’s +$0.35, Wednesday’s -$0.85, Tuesday’s -$0.18 and Monday’s +$0.73),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.22 after Thursday’s +$2.57, Wednesday’s +$0.91, Tuesday’s -$2.48 and Monday’s +$0.94),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.15 after Thursday’s +$0.21, Wednesday’s +$0.07, Tuesday’s +$0.41 and Monday’s -$0.77),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.11 after Thursday’s +$0.26),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.04),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.03),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.02 after Thursday’s +$0.0503),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.02 after Thursday’s +$0.09),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.01 after Thursday’s -$0.26),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.01 after Thursday’s +$0.02),

Flat (1):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG),

Closing Up (10 of 22):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.00 after Thursday’s +$0.39, Wednesday’s +$0.49, Tuesday’s +$2.65 and Monday’s +$2.03),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.31 after Thursday’s +$0.28, Wednesday’s -$1.21, Tuesday’s +$0.64 and Monday’s +$1.71),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.45 after Thursday’s -$0.59),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.68),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.41 after Thursday’s +$0.37, Wednesday’s -$0.32, Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$1.34),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.62),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.50),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.41 after Thursday’s +$0.01, Wednesday’s -$0.49, Tuesday’s -$0.11 and Monday’s +$1.01),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.35 after Thursday’s +$0.14),
  • Prime Medicine (PMRE +$0.23 after Thursday’s +$0.28),

 

Q1/23 – January

  • Friday closed positive with 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 12 incliner, 20 decliners and 3 flats
  • Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliner, 13 decliners and 0 flats
  • Monday closed positive with 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

A positive week with two (2) negative sessions.

Economics play a roll in market sessions as “stocks were boosted after the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index year-over-year rate slowed to 5% in December from 5.5% in November”.

So be cautious about adding exposure and stick to loss-cutting rules.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

It’s just like counting the cards – something I WAS good at.

Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.

Investors are awaiting January manufacturing and Q4 GDP data during the week!

 

There are VERY clear losers today … Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Ultragenyx (RARE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

With winners … Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), CRISPR Therapeutics (EDIT) and Beam therapeutics (BEAM)

 

Avrobio (AVRO) closed up +$0.02 to $0.88 with 144,019 shares traded after Thursday’s -$0.0206 with 511,978 shares traded, Wednesday’s -$0.0438 with 231,320 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.01 to $0.91 with 233,056 shares traded and Monday’s +$0.03 with 168,831 shares traded. <3-month average = 339,011 shares>

The many sessions since acknowledging the de-listing “issue” say a lot of addressing the NASDAQ issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while de-listing continues?

Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>

Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html

·         Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!

·         While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed flat on Friday with 1,695 shares traded after Thursday’s $0.00 with  2,300 shares traded after Wednesday’s $0.00 with 2,100 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.09 with 2,400 shares traded after Monday’s +$0.03 with 700 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,304 shares>

·         Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following SEC rules?

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!

·         They hired a CRO; hope they PAY them after all the difficulties the previous CRO went through and the same individuals from the past problems are STILL in charge!

·         Question; is this a Ponzi scheme as shares are bought to replace those sold??

 My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.