January 27, 2023 7:54am

Sector changes, evolves and disintegrates as many wait for an algorithmic bromide

Pre-open Indications: 3 Negative Indications and 2 Positive Indication

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth! Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! 

Join me … in the NO spin zone.

The 8:00 a.m. edition

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday …

 

Dow futures are DOWN -0.03% or (-10 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.32% or (-13 point) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.55% or (-66 points) early in the pre-open – so far

Stock futures are falling on Friday,

European markets were edging higher,

Asia-Pacific markets rose.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rose Thursday as traders combed through the latest batch of corporate earnings and Q4 GDP (gross domestic product) that came in above expectations.

The Dow closed UP +205.57 points (+0.61%), the S&P closed UP +44.21 points (+1.10%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +199.06 points (+1.76%)

A better-than-expected Q4 GDP report that stoked hopes that the U.S. economy can experience a soft landing as the Fed hikes rates to tame inflation.

All three indexes are positive for the week and month; the Dow popped +1.7% and the S&P 500 have gained 1.7% and the S&P +2.2% this week while the Nasdaq is up 3.3%.

Economic Data Docket: Personal income and spending and pending home sales for December, personal consumption expenditures price index, a preferred inflation measurement for the Fed and consumer sentiment for January.

 

Thursday’s (1/24) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “sector finishes down yet, made strides late in session. Sooner not later, it will be time to dive into sector equity purchases; in my case, getting it right is more often than most, why I shy away from IB/analyst price targets – so listen or read up!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12803

 

Ebb and flow:

Q1/23 – 2 holiday, 9 positive and 8 negative closes

Q4

·         December – 1 holiday, 13 negative and 8 positive closes

·         November -1 holiday, 14 negative and 8 positive closes

·         October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 9 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS

Positive Indications:

Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) closed down -$1.16 to $24.76 with a positive +$0.25 or +1.01% pre-open indication,

uniQure NV (QURE) closed down -$0.21 to $21.39 after Wednesday’s +$0.07 and Tuesday’s +$0.41 with a positive +$0.81 or +3.79% aftermarket indication,

 

Negative Indications:

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$0.59 to $43.85 with a negative -$0.35 or -0.80% pre-open indication,

Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up +$0.11 to $7.45 after Wednesday’s +$0.05, Tuesday’s -$0.06 with a negative -$0.48 or -6.44% aftermarket indication,

Ultragenyx (RARE) closed up +$0.74 to $44.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.09, Tuesday’s +$0.68, Monday’s +$0.41 last Friday’s Friday’s +$0.90 and the previous Thursday’s -$1.12 with a negative -$1.14 or -2.58% aftermarket indication,

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!

Interesting, “Chris Raymond at Piper says that biotech/healthcare funds had $1.3B in outflows last week. First time it's been over a billion negative since October 2021.? <Brad Loncar>

The cell/gene therapy sector sold off Thursday after four (4) up sessions. The overall sector action was NOT encouraging but they move slowly toward so-called better share pricing levels.

Q4 earnings are still in front of the sector, the reporting signals – I believe a downtrend is coming as weak earnings will surface and less than substantial guidance will prevail.

I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product.

And I can always be WRONG but, mostly EARLY!

The cell/gene therapy sector’s investors need to understand the … cycle of distress will be with us until we see a better showing of platforms not, just me-too drug development of what I define as multiple companies chasing the same indication.

A couple of companies have become … black holes … of investor sentiment; yet, some get financing to continue the chain around investors’ necks until they recognize it could be forever with “some” of these equities.

I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.