February 13, 2023 7:50am
The sector has given-up a lot of ground after four (4) down sessions last week with only three (3) positive sessions in the month of eight (8) sessions;
Pre-Open Indications: 3 Positive Indications and 1 Negative Indications
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth! Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
The 8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.18% or (+60 points), S&P futures are UP +0.35% or (+14 point) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.64% or (+79 points) early in the pre-open – so far
U.S. stock futures were mixed and oscillating on Monday a.m.,
European markets were flat,
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell.
Henry’omics:
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Friday, indexes were mixed end of a losing week. The Dow closed up +169.39 points (+0.50%); the S&P closed UP +8.97 points (+0.22%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -71.46 points (-0.61%).
Explanation quote, “These losses came after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that there is still a long way to go in the fight against inflation. Powell also noted that interest rates could rise more than markets anticipate if inflation numbers do not abate, reversing some of the prior market optimism that rate hikes would soon ease.” <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket: The CPI inflation report is on Tuesday morning, helping to set Fed rate hike expectations.
Friday’s (2/10) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “sector shot down by inflationary “objects. As the cell/gene therapy universe fell into the sea of the sentiment pressures.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12828
Ebb and flow:
Q1/23 – February – 5 negative and 3 positive closes
· January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Q4/2022
· December – 1 holiday, 13 negative and 8 positive closes
· November -1 holiday, 14 negative and 8 positive closes
· October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Positive Indications:
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.21 to $45.01 after Thursday’s -$0.01 with a positive +$0.64 or +1.42% aftermarket indication
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRS) closed down again -$1.30 to $49.78 after Thursday’s -$2.31 and Wednesday’s -$2.28 with a positive +$0.22 or +0.44% pre-open indication
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down again -$1.13 to $39.97 after Thursday’s -$2.01 and Wednesday’s -$1.71 with a positive +$0.28 or +0.28% pre-open indication.
Negative indications:
Prime Medicine (PRME) closed up +$0.54 to $10.72 with a negative -$0.72 or -3.65% aftermarket indication.
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!
Until the sector as well shows some strength, investors should be careful about adding exposure. The recent pullbacks highlight the importance of adding exposure gradually, and not buying extended.
What a week to date, Friday, Thursday and Wednesday were down, Tuesday was up and down while Monday flopped.
The sector “gyrate” as algorithms and electronic trading satisfy the lust for returns in quant and hedge funds.
I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring.
I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product.
And I can always be WRONG but, mostly EARLY!
Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.
· Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) 2/16 – Thursday
· Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) 2/22 – Wednesday
· Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) 2/22- Wednesday
· Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) 2/23 - Thursday
So be cautious about adding exposure and stick to loss-cutting rules.
A couple of companies have become … black holes … of investor sentiment; yet, some get financing to continue the chain around investors’ necks until they recognize it could be forever with “some” of these equities.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.
