February 17, 2023 7:39am
Share pricing drops have been bad but, also has been worse
Pre-Open Indications: 4 Negative Indication
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
The 8:00 a.m. edition
TGIF
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are DOWN -0.46% or (-154 points), S&P futures are DOWN-0.64% or (-26 point) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.86% or (-107 points) early in the pre-open – so far and subject to change
Stock futures are down and slipping on Friday,
European markets are lower,
Asia pacific markets fell.
Henry’omics:
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes fell Thursday after an unexpected higher PPI inflation report, and a decline in jobless claims, showing the economy is holding up – or is it amid the anticipated Fed’s rate hikes.
Thursday, the Dow closed DOWN -431.20 points (-1.26%); the S&P closed DOWN -57.19points (-1.38%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -214.76 points (-1.78%)
For the week, the Dow is down 0.51%, the Nasdaq is up 1.18% while the S&P 500 is flat.
Economic Data Docket: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will be speaking about the labor market with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman at the Tennessee Bankers Association’s credit conference.
Thursday’s (2/16) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: after a declining sector session, tough choices ahead for investor’s cell/gene therapy equities with another hot inflation data report and Q4 reporting spooks sentiment. WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12838
Ebb and flow:
Q1/23 – February – 7 negative and 5 positive closes
· January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Maintaining Negative indications:
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.05 to $45.06 after Wednesday’s +$0.19 and Tuesday’s -$0.36, Monday’s +$0.27 following last Friday’s +$0.21 with a negative -$1.36 or -3.02% aftermarket indication after Q4 and FY22 earnings release.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$1.95 to $39.83 after Wednesday’s +$1.00 with a negative -$0.24 or -0.60% pre-open indication.
Vericel (VCEL) closed down again -$0.67 to $28.86 after Wednesday’s -$0.02 with a negative -$0.32 or -1.11% aftermarket indication. VCEL reports earnings next week on Thursday.
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down again -$1.13 to $20.59 after Wednesday’s -$0.04, Tuesday’s +$0.62 and Monday’s +$0.69 with a negative -$0.57 or -2.77% aftermarket indication.
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!
Sector needs more interest with and by pharma partnering.
Maintaining my investing thesis, “Until the sector as well shows some strength, investors should be careful about adding exposure. The recent pullbacks highlight the importance of adding exposure gradually, and not buying extended.”
Cell and gene therapy sector companies ended 2022 with dwindling cash positions and many candidates in development and, apparently, too many employees.
I foresee sector sees companies slashing programs, culling staff and reorganizing, which will make sector “participants” leaner with better cash “runways”.
That certainly will be the case for 2023.
I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring.
I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product.
And I can always be WRONG but, mostly EARLY!
Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.
· Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) 2/22 – Wednesday
· Editas Medicine 2/22 - Wednesday
· Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) 2/23 – Thursday
· Vericel (VCEL) 2/23 – Thursday’s
· Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) 2/23 - Thursday
· Fate Therapeutics (FATE) 2/28 -Tuesday
· MiMedx (MDXG) 2/28 Tuesday
So be cautious about adding exposure and stick to loss-cutting rules.
A couple of companies have become … black holes … of investor sentiment; yet, some get financing to continue the chain around investors’ necks until they recognize it could be forever with “some” of these equities.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.
