February 17, 2023 7:33pm

Raising capital for sector needs a clear path not a pothole strewn share pricing runway

Pre-open indications: 4 Miss

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The week in review 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +129.84 points (+0.39%); the S&P closed DOWN -11.32 points (-0.28%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -68.56 points (-0.58%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Indexes stocks were mixed on Friday as stubbornly high inflation and a rebound in rates continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

For the week, the Dow ended down -0.13%, the S&P 500 shed -0.28% and the Nasdaq rose +0.59%.

 

Friday’s … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “sector earning’s season reporting begins as volatility continues. Share pricing drops have been bad but, also has been worse” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12839

 

Pre-open indications: 4 Miss < Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.55), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.46), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.51), Vericel (VCEL +$0.96)

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 26 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with 20 up/ 11 down and 4 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/5 and 2 flat
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 26 down and 0 flat, stayed negative with 10 up/ 24 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 5/30 and 0 flat
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 28 down and 0 flat, stayed negative with 15 up/ 18 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 18/15 and 2 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 11 up/ 22 down and 2 flats, at 10 a.m. was 23/11 and 1 flat stayed negative with 7 up/ 28 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 13/22 and 0 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 10 up/ 23 down and 2 flats, flipped positive with 23 up/ 11 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 18/17 and 1 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators: oscillating to the downside

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.96% and the XBI was up +2.39%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.26% and the XBI was down -1.50%
  • Wednesday N/A
  • Tuesday, the IBB was flat and the XBI was up +0.23%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.38% and the XBI was down -0.07%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked: illuminating the changes

  • Friday was down-0.15 points or -0.74% at 20.02
  • Thursday was up +1.99 points or +10.92% at 20.22
  • Wednesday N/A
  • Tuesday was down -0.62 points or -2.38% at 18.29
  • Monday was down -0.19 points or -0.93% at 20.34

 

Closing Down (5 of 5):

  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.28 after Thursday’s +$0.11 and Wednesday’s -$0.10),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.24),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.16),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM-$0.06),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.011 after Thursday’s +$0.0097),

Closing Up (10 of 28):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$4.44 after Thursday’s +$0.06, Wednesday’s +$0.96, Tuesday’s -$0.56 and Monday’s -$0.19),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.94 after Thursday’s -$2.25, Wednesday’s -$2.81, Tuesday +$2.57 and Monday’s +$7.08),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.50 after Thursday’s -$2.27 and Wednesday’s +$1.02,
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.18),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.99 after Thursday’s -$1.26 and Wednesday’s +$0.19),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.96 after Thursday’s -$0.67),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.88 after Thursday’s -$0.91, Wednesday’s +$1.09, Tuesday’s -$0.29 and Monday’s -$0.12),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.55 after Thursday’s -$1.95, Wednesday’s +$1.00, Tuesday’s -$0.54 and Monday’s +$1.35),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.51 after Thursday’s -$1.13),

 

Q1/23 – February

  • Friday closed positive with 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday closed negative with 5 incliner, 30 decliners and 0 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliner, 15 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 13 incliner, 22 decliners and 0 flat
  • Monday closed positive with 18 incliner, 16 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Friday the sector popped as the oversold were “recognized” by electronic trading following Thursday’s dive after Wednesday barely upside pop which occurred late in the session, following yet another inflation reports subsequent to Tuesday’s negative close and Monday’s positive close.

Investors should recognize inflation may not return to normal levels begetting more volatility and DIPPING and CHOPPY sector share pricing.

I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring.

Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.

·         Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) 2/22 – Wednesday

·         Editas Medicine (EDIT) 2/22 - Wednesday

·         Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) 2/23 – Thursday

·         Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) 2/23 - Thursday

·         Vericel (VCEL) 2/23 – Thursday

·         Fate Therapeutics (FATE) 2/28- Tuesday

·         MiMedx (MDXG) 2/28 - Tuesday

If you thought of buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship.

 

There are clear losers today … Mesoblast (MESO), Prime Medicine (PRME)and Cellectis SA (CLLS)

With winners … Ultragenyx (RARE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) – floating more pumps and promotes like Chinese “objects” suddenly appearing. WHY hasn’t the SEC “shot Biostage down?

Friday closed flat with 0 share traded after Thursday closed down-$0.10 with 1,414 shares traded after Wednesdays closed down -$0.09 with 2,676 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.96 with 2,105 shares traded, Monday’s +$0.08 with 300 shares traded, and last Friday’s -$0.20 with 3,961 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,319 shares>

·         BSTG has “pulled” its proposed offering … “Withdrawal of Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-265741)”

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!

·         Question; is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (the pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

 

 My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.