March 17, 2023 7:48am

Quadruple witching is an event in financial markets when four (4) different sets of futures and options (derivatives) expire on the same day.

When derivatives expire, traders must close or adjust positions; that can trigger significant volume and order flow as many cover or celebrate; which will be an additive if there's another shoe to drop in the banking sector!

Pre-open Indications: 3 Positive and 2 Negative Indications

A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined, evaluated and reported.

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

The 8:00 a.m. edition

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday …

 

Dow futures are DOWN -0.44% or (-144 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.31% or (-12 point) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.04% or (-4 points) early in the pre-open – so far

Futures are mixed, 2 down (Dow and S&P), 1 up (Nasdaq) and fluctuating on Friday,

European markets flat,

Asia Pacific markets rose.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

The witch is on the volume broom … as several categories of derivatives expire on the same day.

Thursday, indexes rose; the Dow closed UP +371.98 points (+1.17%); the S&P closed UP +68.35 points (+1.76%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +283.23 points (+2.48%).

An on-target quote, “There’s a push-pull in the market right now. The regional banking crisis is a huge negative for the economy and the market. But the overhang that existed prior to the banking crisis was an overly hawkish and irrational Fed.” <Infrastructure Capital Advisors’ CEO Jay Hatfield>

Investors are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week to see how the central bank will proceed in its fight against inflation in light of the shakeup in the banking sector. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: preliminary reading of the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan, as well as industrial and manufacturing production

 

Thursday’s (3/16) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “sector responds to being oversold reversing some declines. As cell and gene therapy companies seek safer banking havens removing their cloud of sustainability after Silicon Valley Bank’s staggering “melt-down” regarding “on-going past” depositing and holdings.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12875

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting dates … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12830

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … “The cell and gene therapy sector fluctuates in revenues, collaboration, regulatory submissions and expenses, but the changes may alarm investors who prefer to see expectation and consensus stability and share pricing growth” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843 --- 26 of 35 (my coverage group)

 

Ebb and flow:

Q1/23 –

March – 4 positive and 8 negative closes

·         February – 1 holiday, 2 vacation, 7 negative and 8 positive closes

·         January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS

Negative indications:

Thursday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

·         Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +$0.81 after Wednesday’s+$0.43 with a negative -$0.39 or -1.11% aftermarket indication

·         BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$1.50 after Wednesday’s -$0.09 and Tuesday’s +$0.80 with a negative -$0.12 or -0.60% pre-open indication and unaudited earnings release while also “handling” its Silicon Valley bank (SVB) deposit “issue”

Positive Indications:

Thursday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

·         Prime Medicine (PRME) closed up +$0.23 after Wednesday’s +$0.96 after Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s +$1.62 with a positive +$0.32 or +2.42% pre-open indication.

·         Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed up +$0.41 after Wednesday’s +$0.96, Tuesday’s +$0.38 and Monday’s +$1.62 with a positive +$0.29 or +0.82% pre-open indication.

·         Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed down -$0.18 after Wednesday’s +$0.17, Tuesday’s -$0.32 and Monday’s +$2.12 with a positive +$0.18 or +3.90% aftermarket indication.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!

Stock index futures, stock options, stock index options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously on a quadruple witching date.

Remain cautious; the major indexes showed strength, but volume fell vs. Wednesday. So it's still a market rally attempt, not a confirmed uptrend.

Thursday, the Nasdaq rebounded strongly from a convergence of all the major averages, breaking a trendline from the early February highs. <IBD>

Reiterating, “the roller-coaster ride is NOT over.”

Cash as more attractive than equities …!

Also, the rush of Q4 and FY22 earnings to release is STILL on … I do NOT believe there are not a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4 and FY22) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring.

25 of my 35 covered have reported – 1 yesterday.

I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product.

And I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!

Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.

·         There are more coming – waiting for announcements

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.