April 4, 2023 7:30am
Pricing, it’s complicated by just about everything
Pre-open Indications: 2 Positive Indications and 2 Negative Indications
A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined, evaluated and reported.
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The 8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday …
Dow futures are UP +0.22% or (+74 points), S&P futures are UP +0.37% or (+15 point) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.46% or (+6` points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures rose slightly Tuesday,
European stocks are higher,
Asia markets mostly rise as Australia’s central bank holds rates steady.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Monday, indexes closed mixed as the Dow closed UP +327.99 points (+0.99%), the S&P closed UP +15.10 points (+0.37) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -32.45 points (-0.27%)
Economic Data Docket: monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, at 10 a.m. ET.
Monday’s (4/3) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “Q2 starts as the cell and gene therapy sector falters. The first week of Q2 is a shortened one for as markets will be closed for Good Friday. Economic data keeps coming, job openings data on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday and the monthly jobs report on Friday.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12900
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … “The cell and gene therapy sector fluctuates in revenues, collaboration, regulatory submissions and expenses, but the changes may alarm investors who prefer to see expectation and consensus stability and share pricing growth” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843 --- 31 of 35 (my coverage group) added BLUE, BCLI, OTCQB: BSTG and ADVM
Ebb and flow:
Q2/23 – 1 negative close
Q1/23 –
· March – ended with 10 positive and 13 negative closes
· February – 1 holiday, 2 vacation, 7 negative and 8 positive closes
· January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Positive indications: trying to be an optimist
Monday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$1.62 with a positive +$0.26 or +1.29% aftermarket indication.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.18 after Friday’s +$1.25 and Thursday’s -$1.54 with a positive +$0.34 or +0.92% pre-open indication.
Negative indications:
Monday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Ultragenyx (RARE) closed up +$0.38 with a negative -$0.81 or -2% aftermarket indication.
Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$0.41 with a negative -$0.16 or -1.97% aftermarket indication
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!
I expect the sector to have a semi-BAD Q2 unless, some credible clinical date hits the wire with weak demand and tighter share pricing ranges.
April showers did NOT quite bring... a strong sector first trading session advance as remnants of fear continue to inhabit markets; although, expectation is still up in the air hoping to appear within new sessions of April
What changes – not much, so I reiterate:
· As the cell and gene therapy sector gains some distance from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis, a growing perception from SOME strategists and economists is that this CRASH will prove to be two-fold — either we plummet into recession or market and stocks continue to rally.
· “When viewed over the course of the past century, April has been one of the best (if not the absolute best) months in terms of stocks' performance. The average monthly gain of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in April over the last 100 years is 1.46%, with positive returns 62% of the time. < Bespoke Investment Group wrote in a note to clients Friday morning>
That ranks as the third-best month behind July and December. In the last 50 years, Bespoke says that the 2.21% average gain in April is easily the highest of any month.”
· “Another potential reason is that institutional investors may be cleaning up their portfolios in March by removing some underperforming stocks, since they need to report quarterly to shareholders and the first quarter ends at the end of March, says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. Then in April, those investors may have some cash on the sidelines and buy back in, he adds.” <Money>
Here are some of the notable stats from Q1/2023, the Nasdaq:
· Gained 16.77%
· Snapped a four-quarter losing streak
· It’s still 24.61% below its record high
A SUSTAINABLE uptrend is needed to get credibility BACK into the sector’s investment.
I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product.
And I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
Also, the rush of Q4 and FY22 earnings to release is slowing …
· 31 of my 35 covered have reported - 4 remaining
· Waiting for remaining release announcements …
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.
