April 11, 2023 4:41pm

Even as key inflation data looms

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 3 Miss

Avrobio (AVRO) +$0.04 to $0.95 on low volume – still under Nasdaq minimum rule of $1.00; will it revisit the de-listing status after six (6) downside sessions?

News: Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.22) announced that dosing in the P1 clinical trial of CHK-336 has been voluntarily paused to allow a thorough investigation of a serious adverse event (SAE) that occurred in a single subject following the first dose in the 125 mg multiple ascending dose (MAD) group. Dosing was halted per trial protocol when the event occurred, followed by a voluntary pausing of the trial by KDNY to enable further investigation. The event has been reported to the U.S. FDA through a Suspected Unexpected Severe Adverse Reaction (SUSAR) report. REGENXBIO (RGNX +$0.45) the U.S. FDA has granted Fast Track designation for RGX-202, a potential one-time gene therapy for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (Duchenne).

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed up +98.34 points (+0.29%), the S&P closed DOWN -0.17 points (-0.00%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -52.48 points (-0.43%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Indexes closed mixed as cyclical stocks outperformed,

Inflation data will dominate the headlines this week … investors are keenly awaiting consumer prices data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 5.6% year-over-year in March.

Economic Data Docket: The National Federation of Independent Business will be issuing the latest results of its small business index before the market opens.

·         March readings of the consumer price index, due Wednesday, and the producer price index, out Thursday.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “sector dives instead of jive as negative divergences continue to find their way into cell and gene therapy equities. March inflation reports are a’comin.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12909

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits < Avrobio (AVRO +$0.04), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM $0.00)Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.22)> and 2 Miss < Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.60), AxoGen (AXGN +$0.31)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 10 up/ 23 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 23 up/ 10 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 23/11 and 3 flat

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843 - 31 of 35 – added BCLI, ADVM, BLUE and BSTG

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.27% and the XBI was up +0.98%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.22 points or +1.16% at 19.19

 

Closing Down (11 of 11):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.63 after Monday’s -$5.45),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.22 after Monday’s -$0.52),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.27 after Monday’s -$0.45),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.20 after Monday’s -$0.60),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.04),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.03),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.02),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.02 after Monday’s +$0.02),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.0067)
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.005)

Flat (1):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
  • MiMedx (MDXG)

Closing Up (10 of 21):

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.90),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.08 after Monday’s -$2.26),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.60 after Monday’s +$0.32),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.45 after Monday’s -$1.21),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.35 after Monday’s -$1.00),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.35 after Monday’s +$0.05),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.32 after Monday’s -$0.36),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.32),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.31),
  • Vericel VCEL +$0.23 after Monday’s +$0.42),

 

Q2/23 – April

  • Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliner, 11 decliners and 3 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

“This is the week that could tell us that the US consumer is no longer showing resilience and in fact is rather weak; core inflation is making things more expensive, retail sales might show the consumer is tapped out, and the banks might paint a picture that American savings accounts are down and credit card debt is skyrocketing.” <OANDA Forex Trading, analyst Edward Moya>

A matter of serious concern, “At least five dozen biotechnology companies have laid off employees so far this year in a sector-wide contraction that has reached large and small drugmakers alike.

·         Brought on by enduring funding challenges, the consolidation has resulted in roughly 3,200 biotech employees losing their jobs between Jan. 1 and early April, according to data collected by BioPharma Dive.

·         While the workforce reductions aren’t a new development — more than 100 biotech companies conducted layoffs last year — the pace of announcements has accelerated, suggesting the industry hasn’t recovered from 2022’s market downturn.

·         Jounce Therapeutics, a formerly up-and-coming cancer drug developer, has shed nearly all of its staff in two rounds of layoffs this year. It’s now in the process of being bought by a company controlled by one of its top shareholders.

·         Apart from Jounce, 17 other biotechs have trimmed 50% or more of their workforce this year. Magenta Therapeutics, Nabriva Therapeutics and Finch Therapeutics have announced cuts exceeding 80% of their staff. <BioPharmaDive>

Secondary stock offerings have been fewer and less lucrative than before, while for private company’s IPO (initial public offerings) are near impossible to pull off. Rising interest rates in the U.S. haven’t helped, nor has the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which had deep roots in biotech, cell and gene therapy.

April is typically a good month as investors look to the Q2 and move past tax season, among other reasons. It’s historically been the second-best month of the year for the S&P 500 and fourth best for the Nasdaq.

The rush of Q4 and FY22 earnings to release has slowed as … 31 of my 35 covered have reported.

·         Four (4) more releases forthcoming of my 35 covered companies

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone!

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) – still pumping the volume and to promote the share price!!

OTCQB: BSTG closed Tuesday $0.00 with 108 shares traded after Monday’s down -$0.07 with 200 shares traded <3-month average =1,821 shares>

·         Did FINANCE happen with US investors – NO mention, possibly ALL …. Beijing, China money. What analysts are following the company? - NONE

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

·         Notice the new director, Ron Packard, MATCH his background to the new Chairman and CEO – education buddies (different companies each in ed field – independent director?

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.