Indication intelligence, analysis and sector perception

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: CPI, or should we consider it crisis prevention and intervention

April 12, 2023 7:23am

Actually, a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services

Pre-open Indications: 2 Positive and 3 Negative Indications

A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined, evaluated and reported.

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The 8:00 a.m. edition

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday …

Dow futures are UP +0.23% or (+78 points), S&P futures are UP +0.12% or (+5 point) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.02% or (-3 points) early in the pre-open – so far

Stock futures rose slightly or barely on Wednesday,

European markets mixed ahead of key U.S. inflation data,

Asia Pacific markets were mostly higher

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed mixed as cyclical stocks outperformed, the Dow closed up +98.34 points (+0.29%), the S&P closed DOWN -0.17 points (-0.00%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -52.48 points (-0.43%).

The March consumer price index (CPI) report could impact the Fed’s rate decision come May. It may also cement the case for a stop to the central bank’s rate-hiking regime.

“It kind of feels like the calm before the storm. It means light volume and not a lot of big moves today. Traders are just kind of getting the eye on the prize, looking to that big CPI number.” < Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group>

Economic Data Docket: consumer price index, a key data point that could affect the Fed’s rate decision in May. It could also cement the case for a stop to rate-hiking regime. Economists predict that CPI rose by 0.2% in March, compared to a 0.4% gain in February.

· Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 8% last week, compared with the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to 6.30% from 6.40%.

Tuesday’s (4/11) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “a tug-of-war between sentiment and conviction as sector wavers and closes up even as key inflation data looms.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12910

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … “The cell and gene therapy sector fluctuates in revenues, collaboration, regulatory submissions and expenses, but the changes may alarm investors who prefer to see expectation and consensus stability and share pricing growth” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843 --- 31 of 35 (my coverage group)

Ebb and flow:

Q2/23 – 1 holiday, 2 positive close and 4 negative closes

Q1/23 –

· March – ended with 10 positive and 13 negative closes

· February – 1 holiday, 2 vacation, 7 negative and 8 positive closes

· January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS

Positive Indication:

Tuesday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -40.20 with a positive +$0.34 or +1.75% aftermarket indication

Prime Medicine (PRME) closed up +$0.60 with a positive +$0.65 or +5.04% aftermarket indication

Negative indications:

Tuesday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)

Avrobio (AVRO) closed up +$0.04 after Monday’s -$0.06 with a negative -$0.03 or -3.16% aftermarket indication,

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed flat after Monday’s +$0.35, Thursday’s +$0.42 and Wednesday’s -$0.25 with a negative -$0.09 or -0.30% aftermarket indication.

Ultragenyx (RARE) closed down -$1.22 after Monday’s +$1.08 with a negative -$0.77 or -2% aftermarket indication

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

Which way will it i.e., CPI go today – what’s flashing, BUY or SELL – I say there is a “matter” for BOTH?

Market breath “seems’ to be improving yet, I would BUY in to SELL if some or any sustainability flashes!

The cell and gene therapy sector could blast out a couple of new highs within a day or two —to initiate a sell-off of the drama stocks, those that “spurt” in an uprise.

Investors seemed to be preparing by dumping equities for the March readings of the consumer price index, due Wednesday, and the producer price index, out Thursday.

Reiterating, “A SUSTAINABLE uptrend is needed to get credibility BACK into the sector’s investment”

I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product.

And I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!

Also, the rush of Q4 and FY22 earnings to release is slowing …

· 31 of my 35 covered have reported - 4 remaining

· Waiting for remaining release announcements …

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.

35 companies, 1 interpreter!

Insight, foresight and recommendation

My motto … never leave an investor uninformed! I say today what others won’t, so you can do what others can’t.

My name is Henry McCusker; I endorse these opinions under my own name and with a subscription based membership.

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Editor and Publisher ... Henry McCusker enters his tenth (10th) year at RegMed Investors with past experience in sell-side analysis, buy-side management, corporate management and due diligence.

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The facts stated and the opinions given in this publication are based on data and information considered to be reliable and have been carefully worked into my qualitative analyses and prognoses. However, no guarantee can be given as to their fairness, accuracy or completeness.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.