April 18, 2023 4:47pm

Resistance was identified, as pricing reached a point of sentiment confrontation, it will do one of two things: bounce away from the support levels – it did, or violate the price level and continue in its decline direction – it also did.

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits and 2 Miss

De-Listing Update: Avrobio (AVRO) Tuesday closed down -$0.0245 after Monday’s -$0.013 to $0.93, Friday’s -$0.012, Thursday +$0.07, Wednesday -$0.06 and last Tuesday’s +$0.04 – still under Nasdaq rule of $1.00; will it revisit the de-listing status after eleven (11) sessions under the minimum?

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -10.55 points (-0.03%), the S&P closed UP +3.54 points (+0.09%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -4.31 points (-0.04%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Indexes pooped the bed (the S&P was barely up) dragged lower by declines from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and other healthcare stocks.

JNJ reported a $68 million, or loss of -$0.03 cents per share due to charges related settling its talc claims. J&J was the second worst performer in the 30-stock-index.

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), the drug and consumer products maker Q1 sales rose 5.6% to $24.75 billion, above the $23.67 billion consensus estimate of analysts polled by Refinitiv. Adjusted earnings came in at $2.68 per share ex-items, above the consensus estimate of $2.50. The CEO noted “strong performance” across all three business segments with the company raising 2023 guidance midpoints.

Low expectations won’t matter to a market staring at a Fed continuing to tighten into a potential recession.

Economic Data Docket: The latest housing data for March showed building permits decline 8.8% to 1.41 million, the Commerce Department. That’s below the 1.45 million expected, according to economists. Housing starts fell 0.8% to 1.42 million, but came in slightly above a Dow Jones estimate of 1.40 million.

 

Tuesday (4/18) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “support stimulates sustainability as I continue heightened analysis.  The support level represents a price point that an asset struggles to fall below over a given time period. Support levels can be visualized using different technical indicators or simply by drawing a line connecting the lowest lows for the period. Applying trendlines or incorporating moving averages provides a more dynamic view of support.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12919

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.77), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.36), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.39), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.43), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.41), Agenus (AGEN +$0.02)> and 2 Miss <Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.12), Vericel (VCEL +$0.03)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 25 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 9/25 and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 31 up/ 3 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 29 up/ 6 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26/9 and 0 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.68% and the XBI was down -0.60%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.21 points or -1.24% at 16.74

 

Closing Down (10 of 25):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.24 after Monday’s +$1.99),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.37 after Monday’s +$3.98),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.46 after Monday’s +$1.09)
  • Ionis Therapeutics (IONS -$1.40 after Monday’s +$0.78),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.75),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.73)
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.71),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.50),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.46),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.37)

Flat (1):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG flat after Monday’s -$0.20)

Closing Up (7 of 7):

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.10 after Monday’s +$1.80),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.36 after Monday’s +$1.24),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.30 after Monday’s -$0.06),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.23 after Monday’s +$2.55),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.12 after Monday’s +$0.74),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.08 after Monday’s +$0.87),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.06 after Monday’s +$0.20),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.02),

 

Q2/23 – April

  • Tuesday closed negative with 9 incliner, 25 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday closed positive with 26 incliner, 9 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

It’s all about expecting a ROTATION after a sector ‘topping” … to the downside and it came as the cell and gene therapy sector “wavered.”

Reiterating, “Uncertainty over short-run share pricing expectations continues to be notably elevated, indicating that the recent volatility in expected year-ahead inflation is likely to continue.”

I HATE to be a doom and gloomed, the Cboe Volatility Index, or “fear gauge,” marked its lowest close on Friday in more than a year. Monday the VIX was low, while cell and gene therapy sector rebounded after being oversold while Tuesday continued the “flow” to close negative – as sentiment resides in the toilet.

Investor focus will now shift to Q1 earnings season. Investors are hesitant to add to positions re concerns of persisted inflation while electronic trading i.e., algorithms are the only ones to lead the upside.

April has been typically a good month as investors look to the Q2 and move past tax season, among other reasons. It has historically been the second-best month of the year for the S&P 500 and fourth best for the Nasdaq.

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone!

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) – still pumping the volume and to promote the share price!!

OTCQB: BSTG, Tuesday closed flat with zero shares traded after Monday’s down of -$0.20 with 3,500 shares traded, Friday +$0.25 with 929 shares traded, Thursday +$0.10 with 150 shares traded, Wednesday -$0.05 with 101 shares traded, last Tuesday $0.00 with 108 shares traded and the previous Monday’s down -$0.07 with 200 shares traded <3-month average =1,803 shares>

·         Did FINANCING happen with US investors – NO mention, possibly ALL … Beijing, China money? What analysts are following the company? - NONE

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

·         Notice the new director, Ron Packard, MATCH his background to the new Chairman and CEO – education buddies (different companies each in ed field – independent director?

·         Biggest issue – RELIANCE on Chinese off-shore investment as US investors AVOID this equity – wonder WHY?

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.