April 28, 2023 4:53pm

Glad it’s over, with Q1 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings releases coming up the next phase could begin with an indecisive note

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing. No tunnel vision here, this analyst/journalist gets into the weeds of daily share pricing and root causes.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

The week in review, and what an April it has been <see list below> - TGIF

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +272.00 points (+0.80%), the S&P closed UP +34.13 points (+0.83%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +84.35 points (+0.69%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Indexes jumped on Friday as it moved closer to notching its worst month since January.

On a weekly basis, the Nasdaq gains +1.3%, the Dow and S&P 500 are poised to finish the week about 0.9% higher each.

The Dow should finish April +2.5% higher, as compared to January +2.8%; while the S&P 500 rode the wave +1.5% and the Nasdaq is on track to end the month slightly higher.

U.S. consumer spending flat in March … while underlying inflation pressures remained strong, keeping the Fed on course to hike interest rates by 25 basis points next week, a move largely priced in by investors.

Economic Data Docket: The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in March, which is what economists anticipated.

 

Friday (4/28) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “how now brown cow?  Means an old-fashioned way of asking what's happening after another barely there Thursday aftermarket.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12936

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 23 up/ 9 down and 3 flats, stayed positive with 28 up/ 6 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 23/10 and 2 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 24 down and 2 flats, popped positive with 23 up/ 11 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 19/13 and 3 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 25 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 14 up/ 19 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 13/19 and 3 flats
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 10 up/ 23 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 5 up/ 28 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/28 and 3 flats
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 10 up/ 28 down and 3 flats, stayed negative with 6 up/ 26 down and 3 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 10/22 and 3 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +1.01% and the XBI was up +1.78%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.36% and the XBI was down -0.73%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.35% and the XBI was down -0.82%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.92% and the XBI was down -1.51%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.31% and the XBI was down -1.28%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -1.29 points or -7.57% at 15.74
  • Thursday was down -1.80 points or -9.55% at 17.04
  • Wednesday was up +0.42 points or +2.24% at 19.18
  • Tuesday was up +2.50 points or +14.80% at 19.39
  • Monday was up +0.03 points or +0.18% at 16.80

 

Closing Down (10 of 10):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.17 after Thursday’s +$0.46, Wednesday’s -$0.78, Tuesday’s -$1.65 and Monday’s -$0.93),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.13 after Thursday’s -$0.01),
  • Mesoblast MESO -$o.10),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.08 after Thursday’s -$0.08),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.07),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.065),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.06 after Thursday’s -$0.36, Wednesday’s -$0.16, Tuesday’s -$1.21 and Monday’s -$0.37),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.0338),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.03 after Thursday’s -$0.16),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.0025)

Flat (1):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)

Closing Up (10 of 23):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.16 after Thursday’s -$1.48, Wednesday’s -$4.63, Tuesday’s -$2.64 and Monday’s -$4.49),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.46),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.45 after Thursday’s +$0.39, Wednesday’s -$0.34 and Tuesday’s +$0.14),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.21 after Thursday’s +$0.13, Wednesday’s +$0.48, Tuesday’s -$1.76 and Monday’s +$1.37),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.75 after Thursday’s +$0.20, Wednesday’s +$0.85, Tuesday’s -$0.48 after Monday’s -$0.61),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.71 after Thursday’s +$0.25 and Wednesday’s -$0.52),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.67),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.64 after Thursday’s -$1.41, Wednesday’s -$1.22 and Tuesday’s $0.00),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.44 after Thursday’s -$0.37 after Wednesday’s -$0.14),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.23)

 

Q2/23 – April

Friday closed positive with 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed positive with 19 positive 13 decliners and 3 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 13 incliner, 19 decliners and 3 flats

Tuesday closed negative with 4 incliner, 28 decliners and 3 flats

Monday closed negative with 10 incliner, 22 decliners and 3 flats

Friday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 26 incliner, 9 decliners and 0 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 9 incliner, 25 decliners and 1 flat

Monday closed positive with 26 incliner, 9 decliners and 0 flat

Friday closed negative with 8 incliner, 27 decliners and 0 flat

Thursday closed positive with 33 incliner, 2 decliners and 0 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliner, 11 decliners and 3 flats

Monday closed negative with 11 incliner, 24 decliners and 0 flat

Friday – market will be closed for Good Friday

Thursday closed positive with 27 incliner, 7 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 13 incliner, 21 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 5 incliner, 28 decliners and 2 flats

Monday closed negative with 16 incliner, 19 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

Ask yourself, do you know why you own certain equity? What’s been communicated re a company’s status at any given time to shareholders other than quarterly reports or a once-upon-a-time press release!

Framing MY main takeaway factors of share pricing … pricing, volume while machine trading creates volatility and liquidity!

I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong … “The rubber is hitting the road, so those companies have to do quite well to justify it.” What is the “it” - the LPS (loss-per-share) numbers facilitate downslides.

Earnings: Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) could NOT recognize their quarterly numbers of net loss and per share loss but could identify its cash position – NOT quite the bell weather for the sector as even preliminary numbers were NOT available – WRONG measure of defining expectation!

·         Reiterating, “I was extremely tentative about the performance of our universe as we awaited the first showing (Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) of earnings season – and NOTHING came out as MY prejudice (as to words in title) one again those who shows who NEGLECT to "totally" inform shareholders.”

WHAT has changed, the daily sector run was to the upside –

Another reiteration “too many factors are calling the ball on share pricing – sentiment, economics, earnings, and I believe the political aspect of the country’s leanings, polarization, and disparities of the debt ceilings arguments.”

Is it time to BUY – NO; wait for after earnings releases and runway (cash positions) alignment. Investors NEED to be hesitant in adding to positions re concerns of upcoming LPS (loss-per-share) metrics. At ANY time, this week, be ready to take partial profits and exit losers.

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone!

De-Listing Update: Avrobio (AVRO)

Friday closed up barely +$0.1079 to $0.99 after Thursday was up +$0.005, Wednesday closed down -$0.0080, Tuesday dived -$0.015, Monday closed down -$0.0443 after Friday closed up +$0.08 to $0.95 after Thursday’s -$0.06, Wednesday +$0.026, Tuesday -$0.0245, Monday’s -$0.013 to $0.93, last Friday’s -$0.012, the previous Thursday’s +$0.07, Wednesday’s -$0.06 and Tuesday’s +$0.04 – still under Nasdaq rule of $1.00; after nineteenth (19) sessions under the Nasdaq minimum?

·         Doesn’t seem that CEO Geoff MacKay can garner support to forestall de-listing for the second time in months?

·         When is the Nasdaq letter due or has it come and NOT been disseminated to investors?

·          Yet another inability to manage expectation?
 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …

Friday closed FLAT with 13 shares traded after Thursday closed flat with 0 shares traded, Wednesday closed flat again with 27 shares traded, Tuesday closed FLAT with only 15 shares traded, Monday closed down -$0.07 with 600 shares traded and last Friday closed FLAT with 150 shares traded <3-month average =1,640 shares>

·         Did FINANCING happen with US investors – NO mention, possibly ALL … Beijing, China money? What U.S. I-Bank analysts are following the company? - NONE

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

·         Biggest issue – RELIANCE on Chinese off-shore investment as US investors AVOID this equity – wonder WHY?

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.